
Aussies set to cop $75k income hit as mining gravy train ends and living standards plateau: Westpac
Analysis from Westpac senior economist Pat Bustamante has found weak net export growth and stalled mining investment is set to cost the average Australian $75,000 of income over the next decade.
'The mining industry accounts for less than 2 per cent of total employment or hours worked, and less than 15 percent of total output, across the Australian economy,' Mr Bustamante said.
'Yet, in the two decades to 2020, the mining industry delivered almost 55 per cent of the growth in our living standards.'
Mr Bustamante said the contribution mining made to Australia's living standards was predominantly driven by higher export prices for key commodities, like iron ore, and an investment boom to bring massive projects online.
'Indeed, a large reason why the Federal government and the mining states have been able to provide cost of living support, and increase the scope of public services, without becoming heavily indebted is because of the windfalls provided by the mining industry,' he said.
But the Westpac economist said mining investment has 'stalled' post the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and strong commodity price growth was unlikely to continue.
'The economic landscape going forward will be very different. The dividend from higher commodity prices is likely to be a thing of the past as key commodity export prices ease,' Mr Bustamante.
'We have iron ore falling from around US$103 per tonne today to US$84/t over the March quarter 2027, for example.'
Australia derives the bulk of its mineral wealth from iron ore, with more than $100 billion of export income produced each year.
Local and international banks have been bearish about the long-term outlook of iron ore as China's steel demand peaks and new supply sources begin to emerge in Africa.
Mr Bustamante said Australian living standards are projected to move sideways between 2022 and 2030, which would be 'the longest period (of no growth) on record'.
'Compared to the scenario where per capita living standards grows at the 40-year average rate of around 2.0 per a year, income will be around $75,000 lower per capita over the next decade in today's dollars compared to the status quo — that's around $300,000 for a household of four,' he said.
'The good news is that it does not have to be this way. Faster productivity growth can be an offset. Opportunities are emerging and we need to be well equipped to exploit these.'
Mr Bustamante pointed to artificial intelligence as a potential opportunity, but implied more would need to be done to bridge the gap.
'The International Monetary Fund recently estimated that in nations that are well positioned to benefit from AI, its widespread adoption could boost productivity growth by 0.9 to 1.5 percentage points a year.'
The Westpac research comes as Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers prepares to host a three-day policy summit next month centred around productivity.
The Business of Council of Australia is leading a cohort of 28 businesses and industry groups at the economic roundtable.
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


7NEWS
3 minutes ago
- 7NEWS
2026 Subaru Outback: Boxier SUV nears Australian launch, packing turbo power
The seventh-generation Subaru Outback is set to continue offering both naturally aspirated and turbocharged four-cylinder boxer powertrains. Government documents list both '2.5i-L' and '2.4i-T' variants of the Outback as having been approved for Australian roads, though the largely blank documents don't shed any other light on the next-generation large SUV. Subaru Australia has been tight-lipped about the new Outback, which was revealed in April. It has yet to confirm launch timing, saying upon the Outback's reveal only that 'We look forward to sharing what these global debuts mean for the Australian market in due course.' When asked for an update, a Subaru Australia spokesperson said there was no news to share at this time. CarExpert can save you thousands on a new Subaru. Click here to get a great deal. However, the appearance of the Outback in Australian Design Rule (ADR) certification documents suggests a local launch could occur within the next six months. The new Forester mid-size SUV, for example, appeared in ADR approval documents in February 2025, before launching here in July. The current Crosstrek small SUV had a gap of around five months between being approved for local roads and being launched. Should the Outback arrive here in early 2026, Australians would gain access to the all-new model just a few months after Americans. The Outback is going on sale in the US late this year. That short delay is in stark contrast with the outgoing Outback, which entered production in the US and went on sale there in late 2019. However, its Japanese-built counterpart didn't launch here until early 2021. The turbocharged version of the outgoing Outback was delayed even longer, also launching in the US late in 2019 but not arriving here until early in 2023. In that instance, the Outback turbo was initially produced only in the US, with Japanese production not commencing until much later. This time around, the Outback is being produced exclusively in Japan. This means Subaru needs to have naturally aspirated and turbocharged versions ready for export to markets like ours and the US. It's a smaller pool of markets this time around for the Outback. Subaru won't offer the new, blockier model in Japan or Europe. In the latter market, the Outback name will live on, albeit with an 'E-' prefix, affixed to the electric Trailseeker revealed in April. It's worth noting that ADR approval documents will sometimes list model variants that may not end up being introduced here. Nevertheless, it appears likely Subaru will stick with a turbocharged engine in the Outback locally, given the absence of a suitable replacement. That's in contrast with other crossover SUVs like the Mazda CX-5, which is dropping turbo power globally in favour of a hybrid system that will arrive later, or the updated Hyundai Kona lineup which has sacrificed turbo power locally in favour of an expanded naturally aspirated and hybrid powertrain lineup. The Outback is bigger than both those models and competes in the large SUV segment, where turbocharged engines – whether petrol or diesel – have become an expectation. As before, naturally aspirated and turbocharged Outback variants will come standard with a continuously variable automatic transmission (CVT) with eight artificial gears, as well as Subaru's 'symmetrical' all-wheel drive system. The naturally aspirated 2.5-litre flat four produces 134kW of power and 241Nm of torque, while the turbo 2.4-litre produces 194kW and 376Nm. Subaru has yet to confirm a hybrid Outback, however, one seems likely to arrive eventually given the Japanese brand has introduced a new, more powerful and more efficient 'Strong Hybrid' powertrain. The seventh-generation Outback departs sharply from its predecessors in terms of styling, with a much boxier body that sees it move away from its more traditional station wagon cues. Inside, the Outback features a 12.1-inch touchscreen infotainment system – now larger and landscape-oriented instead of portrait – with wireless Apple CarPlay and Android Auto, as well as a 12.3-inch digital instrument cluster. Subaru has also returned to a traditional climate control array, while other more user-friendly touches include larger bottle holders in the doors and 'more accessible' cupholders. A more rugged Wilderness variant will be available in the US once again, and Subaru Australia has confirmed it will finally introduce this nameplate Down Under… although whether it's in the form of the new Outback, Forester or Crosstrek remains to be seen. It isn't just the Outback that Subaru Australia is being tight-lipped about. Subaru also revealed its updated Solterra and new Trailseeker (called E-Outback in Europe) electric vehicles (EVs) in April, but has yet to indicate whether they're coming here and, if so, when. Likewise, the Uncharted EV revealed this month has also yet to be confirmed for local release.


Perth Now
3 minutes ago
- Perth Now
2026 Subaru Outback: Boxier SUV nears Australian launch, packing turbo power
The seventh-generation Subaru Outback is set to continue offering both naturally aspirated and turbocharged four-cylinder boxer powertrains. Government documents list both '2.5i-L' and '2.4i-T' variants of the Outback as having been approved for Australian roads, though the largely blank documents don't shed any other light on the next-generation large SUV. Subaru Australia has been tight-lipped about the new Outback, which was revealed in April. It has yet to confirm launch timing, saying upon the Outback's reveal only that 'We look forward to sharing what these global debuts mean for the Australian market in due course.' When asked for an update, a Subaru Australia spokesperson said there was no news to share at this time. CarExpert can save you thousands on a new Subaru. Click here to get a great deal. Supplied Credit: CarExpert However, the appearance of the Outback in Australian Design Rule (ADR) certification documents suggests a local launch could occur within the next six months. The new Forester mid-size SUV, for example, appeared in ADR approval documents in February 2025, before launching here in July. The current Crosstrek small SUV had a gap of around five months between being approved for local roads and being launched. Should the Outback arrive here in early 2026, Australians would gain access to the all-new model just a few months after Americans. The Outback is going on sale in the US late this year. That short delay is in stark contrast with the outgoing Outback, which entered production in the US and went on sale there in late 2019. However, its Japanese-built counterpart didn't launch here until early 2021. Supplied Credit: CarExpert The turbocharged version of the outgoing Outback was delayed even longer, also launching in the US late in 2019 but not arriving here until early in 2023. In that instance, the Outback turbo was initially produced only in the US, with Japanese production not commencing until much later. This time around, the Outback is being produced exclusively in Japan. This means Subaru needs to have naturally aspirated and turbocharged versions ready for export to markets like ours and the US. It's a smaller pool of markets this time around for the Outback. Subaru won't offer the new, blockier model in Japan or Europe. In the latter market, the Outback name will live on, albeit with an 'E-' prefix, affixed to the electric Trailseeker revealed in April. Supplied Credit: CarExpert It's worth noting that ADR approval documents will sometimes list model variants that may not end up being introduced here. Nevertheless, it appears likely Subaru will stick with a turbocharged engine in the Outback locally, given the absence of a suitable replacement. That's in contrast with other crossover SUVs like the Mazda CX-5, which is dropping turbo power globally in favour of a hybrid system that will arrive later, or the updated Hyundai Kona lineup which has sacrificed turbo power locally in favour of an expanded naturally aspirated and hybrid powertrain lineup. The Outback is bigger than both those models and competes in the large SUV segment, where turbocharged engines – whether petrol or diesel – have become an expectation. Supplied Credit: CarExpert As before, naturally aspirated and turbocharged Outback variants will come standard with a continuously variable automatic transmission (CVT) with eight artificial gears, as well as Subaru's 'symmetrical' all-wheel drive system. The naturally aspirated 2.5-litre flat four produces 134kW of power and 241Nm of torque, while the turbo 2.4-litre produces 194kW and 376Nm. Subaru has yet to confirm a hybrid Outback, however, one seems likely to arrive eventually given the Japanese brand has introduced a new, more powerful and more efficient 'Strong Hybrid' powertrain. The seventh-generation Outback departs sharply from its predecessors in terms of styling, with a much boxier body that sees it move away from its more traditional station wagon cues. Supplied Credit: CarExpert Inside, the Outback features a 12.1-inch touchscreen infotainment system – now larger and landscape-oriented instead of portrait – with wireless Apple CarPlay and Android Auto, as well as a 12.3-inch digital instrument cluster. Subaru has also returned to a traditional climate control array, while other more user-friendly touches include larger bottle holders in the doors and 'more accessible' cupholders. A more rugged Wilderness variant will be available in the US once again, and Subaru Australia has confirmed it will finally introduce this nameplate Down Under… although whether it's in the form of the new Outback, Forester or Crosstrek remains to be seen. It isn't just the Outback that Subaru Australia is being tight-lipped about. Supplied Credit: CarExpert Subaru also revealed its updated Solterra and new Trailseeker (called E-Outback in Europe) electric vehicles (EVs) in April, but has yet to indicate whether they're coming here and, if so, when. Likewise, the Uncharted EV revealed this month has also yet to be confirmed for local release. MORE: 2026 Subaru Outback revealed, looks more like an SUV than ever before MORE: Explore the Subaru Outback showroom

Sky News AU
11 minutes ago
- Sky News AU
General Pants Co hit with legal action from retail distributor UCC
An Australian youth fashion icon has been hit with legal action over unpaid debts allegedly owed to its retail distributor. General Pants Co. has been served with a winding-up application due to allegedly owing suppliers nearly $70,000. In filings to the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, UCC Australia launched a winding-up order against the retailer earlier this month. UCC is an importer, distributor and wholesaler of FMCG, supplying electricals and food to some of Australia's major retailers, including Myer, Big W, Kmart, Woolworths and Amazon. According to the filings, General Pants owes just less than $70,000 for the supply of cameras and film between October and December last year. A winding-up notice is issued by a creditor to a company to get them to pay a debt, forcing them to pay back the money they owe or face being placed into liquidation by the court. The hearing is listed for August 20 in Victoria's Supreme Court. General Pants is the latest business under Alquemie Group to face legal action. SurfStitch faced similar action from Nike Australia in June over an alleged $237.760 debt. General Pants has been a staple in Australian fashion for more than 50 years and has more than 50 stores across Australia and New Zealand. It is just the latest in a long line of retail chains that have struggled in the post-Covid period. Retail giant Mosaic Brands, the owner of brands Millers, Rivers, Crossroads, Katies, Noni B and Autograph, entered voluntary administration in October last year, owing creditors about $318m. Originally published as Australian fashion retailer faces court proceedings over unpaid bills