Why Hurricane Erick is quickly strengthening into dangerous storm
Having doubled in strength in less than a day and still expected to grow further, Hurricane Erick on Wednesday chugged through the ideal environment to power up quickly as it approached Mexico's southern Pacific Coast.
By early Thursday, it had been upgraded to an "extremely dangerous" Category 4 hurricane with maximum wind speeds of 230 km/h.
This type of rapid intensification has become more common in a warmer climate, especially in the Atlantic and near the United States, which is not where Erick is now, scientists said.
Last year, there were 34 incidents of rapid intensification — when a storm gains at least 35 mph (56 km/h) in 24 hours — which is about twice as many as average and causes problems with forecasting, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Erick, an otherwise run-of-the-mill hurricane that's strong but not unusual, gained 50 mph (80km/h) in just 18 hours and was still powering up as it neared the coast.
The only thing that's unusual so far is that this is the fifth eastern Pacific storm a month into the season there, which is a little more active than normal, said University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy.
And it's likely that when Erick hits, it will be the strongest storm to make landfall in that part of Mexico this early in the season, he said.
On average, the fifth named storm first appears in the Eastern Pacific basin around 23 July, according to the hurricane centre.
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season, which starts 15 May and runs through 30 November, averages 15 named storms, eight of which become hurricanes, with four of those reaching major status of winds more than 177 kph.
In general, the eastern Pacific tends to have about one storm a year more than the Atlantic. But Atlantic storms tend to cause more destruction because they hit more populated areas.
Because of where Erik is headed — nearing Acapulco — and its rapid intensification, the storm brings back bad memories of deadly Otis, which seemed to come from out of nowhere to smack Mexico with a top-of-the-scale Category 5 hurricane in 2023.
But Erick is no Otis, especially because of their timing. Erick is an early-season storm, and Otis hit in October.
Forming in October, Otis grew stronger by churning up deeper and warmer water because it was later in the year.
Erick is early in the year, and the deep water it would churn up is cooler and doesn't fuel rapid intensification. Even so, the surface water is plenty hot enough, said MIT hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel.
All the ingredients are otherwise perfect for Erick's power-up, said University at Albany atmospheric scientist Kristen Corbosiero. Dry air often stops rapid intensification, but Erick hasn't run into dry air, and the atmosphere around it is extremely moist, she said.
It's got a good stormy eye forming and has what would be the ideal shape of a strengthening storm, she said.
Studies have linked human-caused climate change in general to more bouts of rapid intensification, as well as wetter and slower storms, Corbosiero said. But it would take more study, usually after the storm hits, to find any potential link between global warming and Erick in particular, if there is one, she said.
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France 24
an hour ago
- France 24
Floods expected after Hurricane Erick makes landfall in western Mexico
The storm was packing maximum sustained winds of 125 miles (205 kilometers) per hour as it hit just east of Punta Maldonado, the NHC said in a post on social media. By 1200 GMT, Erick was moving northwest at a speed of nearly nine miles (15 kilometers) per hour, and was expected to continue making its way inland over southern Mexico through the day. Heavy rainfall was expected to cause "life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain" in Oaxaca and Guerrero states, the NHC said. A "life-threatening storm surge" was expected to cause coastal flooding near where the storm made landfall. "Erick is expected to rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico, and the system is likely to dissipate tonight or early Friday," the center's advisory added. Mexican authorities said they were also expecting heavy rain in southernmost state Chiapas. President Claudia Sheinbaum urged people to avoid going out and advised those living in low-lying areas or near rivers to move to shelters. In Acapulco, a major port and resort city famous for its nightlife, police with bullhorns walked the beach and drove around town warning residents and holidaymakers of the storm's arrival. Some shops boarded up their windows and operators of tourist boats brought their vessels ashore. Rainfall began in the late afternoon after a sunny day on Wednesday. About 250 miles (400 kilometers) south of Acapulco, the city of Puerto Escondido and its 30,000 inhabitants braced for the hurricane's effects. Restaurants were already closed despite tourists unwilling to give up their vacations, an AFP journalist noted from the scene. "They say it's going to hit this side of the coast, so we're taking precautions to avoid having any regrets later," Adalberto Ruiz, a 55-year-old fisherman sheltering his boat, told AFP. Laura Velazquez, national coordinator of civil protection, said the government was using patrols and social media to warn people. Some 2,000 temporary shelters have been set up in Chiapas, Guerrero and Oaxaca, and hundreds of troops and electricity workers have been deployed to help with any clean-up efforts. Local authorities have suspended classes and closed ports along the coast, including the port of Acapulco, to shipping. Mexico sees major storms every year, usually between May and November, on both its Pacific and Atlantic coasts. In October 2023, Acapulco was pummeled by Hurricane Otis, a powerful Category 5 storm that killed at least 50 people. Hurricane John, another Category 3 storm that hit Acapulco in September last year, caused about 15 deaths.
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Euronews
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Why Hurricane Erick is quickly strengthening into dangerous storm
Having doubled in strength in less than a day and still expected to grow further, Hurricane Erick on Wednesday chugged through the ideal environment to power up quickly as it approached Mexico's southern Pacific Coast. By early Thursday, it had been upgraded to an "extremely dangerous" Category 4 hurricane with maximum wind speeds of 230 km/h. This type of rapid intensification has become more common in a warmer climate, especially in the Atlantic and near the United States, which is not where Erick is now, scientists said. Last year, there were 34 incidents of rapid intensification — when a storm gains at least 35 mph (56 km/h) in 24 hours — which is about twice as many as average and causes problems with forecasting, according to the National Hurricane Center. Erick, an otherwise run-of-the-mill hurricane that's strong but not unusual, gained 50 mph (80km/h) in just 18 hours and was still powering up as it neared the coast. The only thing that's unusual so far is that this is the fifth eastern Pacific storm a month into the season there, which is a little more active than normal, said University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy. And it's likely that when Erick hits, it will be the strongest storm to make landfall in that part of Mexico this early in the season, he said. On average, the fifth named storm first appears in the Eastern Pacific basin around 23 July, according to the hurricane centre. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season, which starts 15 May and runs through 30 November, averages 15 named storms, eight of which become hurricanes, with four of those reaching major status of winds more than 177 kph. In general, the eastern Pacific tends to have about one storm a year more than the Atlantic. But Atlantic storms tend to cause more destruction because they hit more populated areas. Because of where Erik is headed — nearing Acapulco — and its rapid intensification, the storm brings back bad memories of deadly Otis, which seemed to come from out of nowhere to smack Mexico with a top-of-the-scale Category 5 hurricane in 2023. But Erick is no Otis, especially because of their timing. Erick is an early-season storm, and Otis hit in October. Forming in October, Otis grew stronger by churning up deeper and warmer water because it was later in the year. Erick is early in the year, and the deep water it would churn up is cooler and doesn't fuel rapid intensification. Even so, the surface water is plenty hot enough, said MIT hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel. All the ingredients are otherwise perfect for Erick's power-up, said University at Albany atmospheric scientist Kristen Corbosiero. Dry air often stops rapid intensification, but Erick hasn't run into dry air, and the atmosphere around it is extremely moist, she said. It's got a good stormy eye forming and has what would be the ideal shape of a strengthening storm, she said. Studies have linked human-caused climate change in general to more bouts of rapid intensification, as well as wetter and slower storms, Corbosiero said. But it would take more study, usually after the storm hits, to find any potential link between global warming and Erick in particular, if there is one, she said.
