Best bets and expert tips for Geelong races Thursday
News Corp form analyst Brad Waters looks at Thursday's meeting at Geelong.
BEST BET
PURVEYOR (Race 7 No.2): Purveyor got home hard against the pattern at Cranbourne first-up. He'll be much fitter and should relish the bigger Geelong circuit.
NEXT BEST
DIVINE PROVENANCE (Race 2 No.3): The Lonhro colt has done everything right at the jumpouts leading up to his debut. Expecting him to take that form to the races.
GOVERNOR KING (Race 8 No.2): The Henry Dwyer-trained galloper has improved with every run this time in and won a recent jumpout at Ballarat. He'll go well again over 1700m.
VALUE BET
DIAMOND WAR (Race 9 No.12): Diamond War steps up in class but is racing well without having the best of luck. He's drawn to have the right run and is a great each-way chance.
THE JOCKEY
JOHN ALLEN
Jockey John Allen heads to Geelong for eight rides on Thursday. WESTERN LEGEND (Race 1 No.9 – $26), SUSSEX DUCHESS (Race 2 No. 14 – $23), WILLIE SUNSHINE (Race 3 No.18 – $26), FIORA (Race 4 No.14 – $26), MY ANGEL SHELL (Race 5 No.3 – $5), NORTHERN BARRAGE (Race 6 No.15 – $17), GOVERNOR KING (Race 8 No.2 – $6.50), CAPITAL ASSET (Race 9 No.5 – $6.50).
Originally published as Best bets and value play for Geelong races Thursday

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4 hours ago
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Form expert Ray Thomas analyses Wednesday's seven-race card at Warwick Farm, presenting his best bets, quaddie picks and inside mail. • PUNT LIKE A PRO: Become a Racenet iQ member and get expert tips – with fully transparent return on investment statistics – from Racenet's team of professional punters at our Pro Tips section. SUBSCRIBE NOW! â– â– â– â– â– BEST BET Race 1 No.3 BURMA STAR: Just missed when resuming, strips fitter and is suited coming back slightly in trip to 1100m. NEXT BEST Race 4 No.4 PRIMA BELLA: She was very impressive at Warwick Farm, her third win from four starts this campaign, and is a superior mudlark. VALUE Race 2 No.9 SPICE PRAWN: Improving filly who wasn't suited by the race tempo last start but still hit the line well. She's ready to win. QUADDIE Race 4: 3,4,7,9 Race 5: 2,3,7 Race 6: 1,4,7,13 Race 7: 3,4,13,14 JOCKEY TO FOLLOW Jason Collett has a good book of six rides including leading chances Beside The Ocean, Prima Bella, Fairway Star and Signor Tortoni. TRAINER TO FOLLOW Bjorn Baker will be trying to utilise his home track advantage when represented by promising first starters, Defiance and Senjutsu, and the in-form Shalaa Gold, Fairway Star and O'Invincible. BURMA STAR (3) was easy in betting and had his chance to win first-up when run down by Tyreek at Canterbury two weeks ago. Burma Star got through the heavy track conditions that day well which should stand him in good stead for this race. Trainer Chris Waller has decided to take the blinkers off and put visors on, James McDonald stays with the Godolphin colt and coming back slightly to 1100m is in his favour. I liked the way GUS THE GREAT (5) finished off in a recent trial and he should go well on debut. WEST OF SWINDON (1) is talented but has a big weight and wide barrier to overcome. DEFIANCE (4) is another trailing well. BET: BURMA STAR (3) to win, saver on GUS THE GREAT (5) each way. SPICE PRAWN (9) gets her chance here. She was very good first-up when a close second to promising Without Peer then ran on without threatening when fourth to Tyreek and Burma Star at Canterbury. Spice Prawn will appreciate going to 1300m and is ready to win. First starter MEAN AS (5) is the danger. He has an extravagant action but sailed through heavy going to impressively win a recent Warwick Farm trial by an increasing margin. BESIDE THE OCEAN (8), by champion sire Zoustar, is a half sister to Golden Slipper winner Farnan and she ran very well on debut when second at Kensington. Drawn wide but that might be to her advantage given the very heavy track conditions. BET: Box quinella 5,8,9. KIMBERLEY SECRETS (1) has never missed a place in four previous first-up runs, winning twice, and she resumes here off two easy trial wins. Smart mare who handles soft tracks although she's a query on this testing track. She looked trained up for her return. MERGEILA (2) is a promising mare by unbeaten US triple crown winner Justify. She ran only eighth in a recent Rosehill trial but was held up in the straight and went to the line going half pace. CHIDIAC (4) has won four of her five starts and cruised home at Scone first-up last month. She has trialled well since and has a fitness edge over her two main rivals. SOUTHERN HEIRESS (7) has won both her starts and deserves consideration. BET: Box trifecta 1,2,4,7. PRIMA BELLA (4) is in a rich vein of form. She attacked the line strongly to win over the Warwick Farm 1000m course last start, handling the heavy 8 conditions with ease. She has won three of her four starts this campaign including a Newcastle win on a bottomless track. Superior mudlark and the one to beat. CAMBAR (7) showed promise winning his first three starts then had excuses with successive defeats over summer. Resuming off two impressive trial wins and he has won in heavy going. DESI EMPEROR (3) is also racing in very good form while SHALAA GOLD (9) has been improved by two runs back and handles these conditions. BET: PRIMA BELLA (4) to win, watch betting moves for CAMBAR (7). KAPAKIRI (2) was back in the field on the inside and held up for a run at the top of the straight before working home strongly to finish fifth, beaten a length at Kensington. Eye-catching first-up effort, fitter here, gets out to 1600m and James McDonald goes on. ISLAND DREAM (7) came off heels and charged home to win at Canterbury. Improving mare who handles wet tracks. FAIRWAY STAR (4) ran on well to win over the Warwick Farm 1600m course last start but the very heavy track is a concern. INVESTMENT (6) does enjoy these wet conditions but she is coming back slightly in trip. BET: KAPAKIRI (2) to win. SIGNOR TORTONI (4) won his maiden at Gosford, backed that up with a tough effort on a heavy track at Canterbury before going to Saturday grade where he ran third at Randwick. He was beaten last start by smart types Glorious Moments and Codetta and is well suited back in midweek grade. FORMAL DISPLAY (1) is an interesting runner. A two-time winner from seven starts in Ireland, he has shown plenty of speed in two recent barrier trials. ICEMAN (13) has only one win from 18 starts but he's racing consistently of late and handles these conditions. DIMITROV (7) has been competitive in two runs back and he did win over the Warwick Farm 1400m course at his third run in last campaign. BET: Box trifecta 1,4,7,13. METAPHORICALLY (3) jumped to the front, controlled the race and scored a comfortable win over La Roja and The Replicant at Canterbury last start. The minor placegetters have both come out and won since to frank the form. Metaphorically has drawn well and looks the one beat provided he handles the very heavy conditions. SESSIONS ROAD (4) comes off successive minor placings in Melbourne and he is a good wet-tracker. 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