Life expectancy in California still hasn't rebounded since the pandemic
A new study published in JAMA by researchers from UCLA, Northwestern, Princeton and Virginia Commonwealth University finds that Californians lived, on average, nearly a year less in 2024 than they did in 2019. The shortfall of 0.86 years signals that only about two-thirds of the state's pandemic-era losses of 2.92 years have been reversed.
Using mortality data from the California Comprehensive Death Files and population estimates from the American Community Survey, the researchers calculated annual life expectancy from 2019 to 2024, breaking the figures down by race, ethnicity, income and cause of death.
While the COVID-19 virus was the primary factor in life expectancy declines during the pandemic's peak, accounting for 61.6% of the life expectancy gap, its impact has significantly lessened. In 2024, COVID-19 accounted for only 12.8% of the life expectancy gap compared to 2019, while drug overdoses and cardiovascular disease contributed more — 19.8% and 16.3%, respectively.
For Black and Hispanic Californians, recovery has been even slower. Life expectancy for Black residents in 2024 remained 1.48 years below 2019 levels, while for Hispanic residents it was 1.44 years lower. In contrast, the gap for white residents was 0.63 years, and for Asian residents, who have the highest life expectancy in the state at 85.51 years, it was 1.06 years. Overall, the life expectancy for Black Californians in 2024 was under 73.5 years, more than a dozen years lower than that of Asian Californians.
Janet Currie, a co-author of the study and professor at Princeton University, noted that these disparities are especially striking. 'You saw the very big hit that Hispanic people and Black people took during the pandemic,' she said, 'but you also see that Black people in particular are still not caught up.' She added that while Hispanic populations saw a faster rebound, they too remain behind.
Income-based disparities in life expectancy persist in stark form. Californians living in the lowest-income census tracts (the bottom quartile) experienced a 0.99-year gap in 2024 compared to 2019, while those in the highest-income quartile had a slightly smaller 0.85-year gap. However, the overall life expectancy difference between these groups, 5.77 years, was nearly identical to the pre-pandemic gap of 5.63 years, suggesting that income-based health disparities persist even as pandemic impacts recede.
The study highlights drug overdoses as a primary post-pandemic driver of reduced life expectancy. Black Californians and residents of low-income areas were especially affected. In 2023, drug overdoses contributed nearly a full year (0.99 years) to the life expectancy deficit for Black Californians and over half a year (0.52) for residents of low-income areas.
That said, there are signs that state and national efforts to address the overdose crisis may be yielding early results. The number for Black Californians declined to 0.55 years in 2024 while it declined to 0.26 years for residents in low income areas; in the same time frame, the statewide number dropped from 0.4 years to 0.17 years.
Currie attributed the initial surge in overdose deaths in part to the pandemic itself — there were disruptions in access to treatment, and many Californians suffered greater isolation. While she welcomed the recent progress, she cautioned that the share of deaths attributable to overdoses remains high and emphasized that this was 'one of the real bad consequences of the pandemic.'
Meanwhile, cardiovascular disease is now the leading contributor to life expectancy loss among high-income Californians. In 2024, it accounted for 0.22 years of the gap for the wealthiest quartile, more than COVID-19 did at 0.10 years. The authors note this is consistent with statewide rising rates of obesity, which may be playing a role.
Tyler Evans, chief medical officer and CEO of Wellness Equity Alliance as well as the author of the book 'Pandemics, Poverty, and Politics: Decoding the Social and Political Drivers of Pandemics from Plague to COVID-19,' emphasized how the pandemic exacerbated long-standing health inequities. 'These chronic health inequities were further amplified as the result of the pandemic,' he said. While investments in social determinants of health initially helped mitigate some of the worst outcomes, he added, 'the funding dried up,' making recovery harder for communities already at greater risk of poor outcomes.
Evans also pointed to a broader pattern of overlapping health crises that he described as a 'syndemic,' a convergence of epidemics like addiction, chronic disease and poor access to care that interact to worsen outcomes for historically marginalized populations. 'Until we invest in that sort of foundation long term, the numbers will continue to decline,' he said. 'California should be a leader in health improvement outcomes in the country, not a state that continues to have our survival decline.'
Although the findings are limited to California and based on preliminary 2024 data, the study provides an early glimpse into post-pandemic mortality trends ahead of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's national life expectancy dataset, expected to be published later this year. California, home to one-eighth of the U.S. population, provides valuable insight into how racial, ethnic and socioeconomic disparities continue to shape public health.
Ultimately, the study highlights how although the most visible impacts of COVID-19 may have faded, their ripple effects, compounded by ongoing structural inequities, continue to shape life and death in California. The pandemic may have accelerated long-standing public health challenges, and post-pandemic recovery, the study makes clear, has been uneven and incomplete.
Currie warned that further cuts to Medicaid and public hospitals could make these gaps even worse. 'We know what to do. We just don't do it,' she said.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Hamilton Spectator
4 hours ago
- Hamilton Spectator
Is this enough to protect firefighters' lungs? Ontario gives new face coverings — but documents lay bare their shortcomings
The grey scarf is made from the same flame-retardant material as their uniforms, but it's not doing much to protect their lungs. The BarriAire neck gaiters issued to Ontario forest firefighters this summer to filter out carcinogenic smoke aren't certified for workplace use, will not protect wearers from particulates, gases and vapours and are 'not acceptable as a stand-alone control to reduce exposure,' according to an internal Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) document. Nevertheless, the MNR recommends that Ontario fire rangers 'wear one as much as possible, when conditions allow, during suppression of active fires, mop-up, or while at staging areas, line camp, and base camp,' according to a March 2025 safety training bulletin, obtained by the Star. Last year, front-line wildland firefighters won a long battle to get presumptive illness coverage at the Workplace Safety and Insurance Board, recognizing that chronic exposure to wildfire smoke can lead to a lengthy list of cancers or cardiovascular disease. While this means veteran firefighters can get compensation for previous exposure to toxic substances, it also left the provincial government scrambling to protect the fire rangers on the job today. An Ontario fire ranger wears a 'buff' issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources for the first time in 2025 to provide protection against toxic particles in smoke. Their solution: buffs. The safety bulletin says the MNR is still studying exposure levels and appropriate protection and brought in the buffs as an interim measure on a 'nonmandatory, opt-in basis.' But introducing new personal protective equipment (PPE) has cleaved a culture clash between veterans, many of whom don't consider forest fire smoke to be dangerous, and a new generation of wildfire fighters who are more likely to want respiratory protection. Both groups appear to agree on one thing: like cotton masks during COVID, the buffs are totally ineffective. 'Nobody wears them other than the odd rookie,' said Noah Freedman, a crew leader with 10 seasons experience fighting wildfires. 'You don't have to be a PhD to understand they don't do anything.' They don't have a good seal, they get dirty 'instantaneously' and they're hot, making it hard to breathe, said Freedman, who is also vice-president of the wildland firefighter's union, OPSEU Local 703. Meanwhile, a rookie fire ranger working in northwestern Ontario says half his crew members wear one but no crew bosses or supervisors do. 'People don't take it very seriously,' said the fire ranger, whom the Star agreed not to name because they aren't permitted to speak with the media. 'They say the safety briefings are just propaganda. Smoke is par for the course. It's what you sign up for.' 'Of course, I don't agree,' they added. 'When I'm on the fire line, if I'm not wearing it, I can feel it in my lungs. My nose gets stuffy. 'I highly doubt they are filtering out the worst stuff,' said the fire ranger. 'But something's better than nothing.' In response to questions about the buff, Maria Votsis, spokesperson for Natural Resources Minister Mike Harris Jr. sent a statement saying the introduction of the buffs this year was not liked to the newly-won cancer coverage for firefighters. 'The narrative suggested in your questions … that the sole motivation behind the addition of masks to FireRanger's PPE is because they now have WSIB presumptive coverage for several cancers, linked to smoke exposure, is an irresponsible narrative and blatantly untrue,' she wrote. 'We are proud to be recognized as leaders in wildland firefighting safety, ensuring FireRanger teams are equipped with specialized equipment to keep them safe on the job,' she wrote, adding that the buffs 'provide a measure of respiratory protection in the field.' Wildfire fighting presents unique challenges for determining the best way to protect workers, said Sandra Dorman, a professor in the Faculty of Health at Laurentian University and the director of the Centre for Research in Occupational Safety and Health. Dorman, who has been studying forest firefighter health and safety at the Aviation, Forest Fire and Emergency Services branch of the MNR since 2007, says you can't just issue the same oxygen tank and full-mask respirator that municipal fire departments use. Fire rangers spend entire days on the fire line and would quickly run out of oxygen. The extra weight would encumber the small helicopters that ferry people and equipment in and out of fires. The mask, some argue, would provide a false sense of security and get fire rangers into dangerous situations they never would have been in if they were breathing without assistance. But perhaps worst of all, the respirators would exacerbate the already intense heat fire rangers encounter, increasing the likelihood of heat stroke, trading one health hazard for another. 'It's another layer of heat entrapment,' she said. 'I don't think anyone questions anymore the health effects of smoke. But this is a complex problem to solve.' Unlike B.C. wildfire fighters, who leave the fire overnight, Ontario's fire rangers camp for up to two weeks at remote fires, because there is no way in or out except by helicopter. This means fire fighters in B.C. get recovery time away from smoke, she said, while in Ontario, they're exposed 24 hours a day, which affects their bodies' ability to bounce back. This season, Dorman is gathering data from air quality monitors that will be carried by fire rangers, positioned on the fire line and in base camp to help the MNR determine the best way to mitigate the effects of smoke. 'How can we reduce exposure?' she asked. 'What can we do at night in the tent to help recovery?' Previous studies Dorman carried out on Ontario wildland firefighters found they had increased inflammation in their airways due to smoke exposure and their lung volume was reduced at the end of a season. 'They're absolutely getting exposed to too much,' she said. 'The question is how can we gather information to better protect them in the future?' B.C. started issuing buffs with the rationale that anything is better than nothing, Dorman said. Until Ontario is able to determine exactly what the levels of exposure are, and where respite might be found, the buffs act as a placeholder that indicates to fire rangers that more change is coming. 'I'm not going to defend the buff. But I'm also not going to throw it in the garbage can,' she said. Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha. Please try again. You may unsubscribe at any time. By signing up, you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google privacy policy and terms of service apply. Want more of the latest from us? Sign up for more at our newsletter page .
USA Today
6 hours ago
- USA Today
Pam Bondi drops case against doctor accused of destroying COVID-19 vaccines
Attorney General Pam Bondi on July 12 dropped a case against a Utah doctor accused of falsifying COVID-19 vaccination certificates and destroying more than $28,000 worth of government-provided COVID-19 vaccines. Bondi, in a statement posted on X, said Michael Kirk Moore Jr., of Salt Lake County, Utah did not deserve the jail time he was facing. Moore was indicted by a federal grand jury in 2023, and his trial had begun earlier this month. "Dr. Moore gave his patients a choice when the federal government refused to do so. He did not deserve the years in prison he was facing. It ends today," Bondi said. COVID-19 vaccine skeptics have been embraced by the Trump administration. The Pentagon, for example, has sought to re-enlist servicemembers who were ousted for refusing to be vaccinated during the pandemic. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who for decades has sown doubt about the safety of vaccines contrary to evidence and research by scientists, wrote on X in April: "Dr. Moore deserves a medal for his courage and his commitment to healing!" According to a 2023 statement from the U.S. Attorney's Office in Utah, Moore allegedly ran the false certifications out of a plastic surgery center. His activities allegedly included administering saline shots to minors, at the request of their parents, so the children would think they were receiving COVID-19 vaccines, the statement said. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a U.S. lawmaker from Georgia and staunch Trump supporter, had championed dropping the case against Moore, who she called a hero in a statement on Saturday. "We can never again allow our government to turn tyrannical under our watch," she said in a post on X. The latest move by Bondi comes amid scrutiny of her firings of senior Justice Department officials who worked on investigations into Trump, stoking accusations of political retribution in a department whose mission is to enforce U.S. laws. (Reporting by Phil Stewart and Barghav Acharya; Editing by Don Durfee and Alistair Bell)
San Francisco Chronicle
6 hours ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
Life expectancy for Californians still lower than before COVID — here's why
Life expectancy for Californians has yet to rebound to pre-pandemic levels, and is still nearly one year shorter than it was before COVID-19, new research shows. In 2024, life expectancy for Californians was 80.54 years — 0.86 years less than the 81.4 it was in 2019, according to the study, published Wednesday in JAMA. Prior to the start of the pandemic, life expectancy in the state had been rising steadily; it fell sharply in 2020 (to 79.3) and 2021 (to 78.48) before rising again in 2022 (79.56) and 2023 (80.28). But the 2024 data suggest that this progress is flatlining — a sign that COVID continues to have lingering effects on population-level health, despite the fact that it is no longer top of mind for most people. 'The reason why that's important is that the pandemic is still having effects on our health, even though everyone may have mentally moved on and wants to forget about it,' said study co-author Janet Currie, a professor of economics at Yale. 'It's still with us.' The analysis, led by researchers at Yale, Northwestern, UCLA and Virginia Commonwealth University, used preliminary California data for 2024. National life expectancy data for 2024 is not yet available. In California, 2024 marked the first time since the pandemic began that drug overdoses and cardiovascular disease both accounted for a greater share of the life expectancy decline than COVID. Drug overdoses accounted for 20% of the overall life expectancy decline, cardiovascular disease accounted for 16%, and COVID accounted for 13%. That is the largest proportion of decline attributed to cardiovascular disease in several years. The rise in cardiovascular-related deaths, which include deaths from heart attacks and stroke, is 'puzzling,' Currie said. Some of it could be due to people not seeking health care during the early stretches of the pandemic, such as those who avoided the hospital even when they were having a heart attack or stroke, for fear of the virus. It may also be linked to rising obesity rates or long COVID, the latter of which can lead to inflammation and can be associated with higher rates of heart disease. Drug overdoses skyrocketed during the pandemic but declined between 2023 and 2024 — accounting for 36% and 20% of the life expectancy drop, respectively. 'That's a piece of good news,' Currie said. COVID has accounted for less and less of the life expectancy drop over time. In 2021, it accounted for 62% of the deficit. That fell to 36% in 2022, 16% in 2023 and 13% in 2024, the study found. Out of all racial and ethnic groups, Hispanic residents experienced the biggest drop in life expectancy during COVID — more than five years, from 82.55 in 2019 to 77.37 in 2021 — but also rebounded relatively quickly in 2022 and 2023. Asian residents continue to have the highest life expectancy — 85.51 years in 2024, compared to 81.11 for Hispanic residents, 79.94 for white residents and 73.42 for Black residents. Economists study life expectancy because how long people expect to live impacts how much they need to save for retirement. And federal programs like Social Security and Medicare must factor in life expectancy when estimating costs. Life expectancy in the U.S. improved significantly over the 20th century, Currie noted. Those gains happened in spurts thanks to advances like clean water, the development of antibiotics, major innovations in treating heart disease and cancer, and improvements in preventing infant mortality.
