How CFOs Are Navigating A World Of Constant Disruption
By Carl-Christian von Weyhe, CFO Middle & Eastern Europe, SAP
What we often refer to as 'unprecedented times' has, in fact, become a permanent state. The current global situation continues to dominate the front pages of financial and business media. Since 1990, the World Uncertainty Index has been on a steady rise, and the events of the past five years in particular have left CFOs feeling more unsettled than ever.
Established trends are being disrupted by a series of unpredictable developments in an increasingly complex global environment. As a result, the ability to make long-term forecasts is diminishing. This persistent uncertainty is having a tangible impact: two out of five business leaders say they do not feel adequately prepared for future market disruptions.
CFOs are being called upon to chart a course through those turbulences and safeguard their companies' market position. The following three areas for action have emerged:
Comprehensive real-time analysis and scenario-based planning
In a volatile environment, traditional forecasting methods have their limits. Based on historical data and linear trends, they cannot adequately account for short-term external influences, such as tariff increases or supply chain disruptions. Nor can they adequately reflect rapidly changing political developments or new legislation – particularly in areas like ESG regulations.
To remain competitive in this dynamic economic environment, companies need real-time information, paired with scenario-based modeling tools such as value driver trees. These tools allow CFOs to run real-time simulations and accurately predict the financial impact of external events on revenue and costs. However, many organizations do not yet have the necessary data for such real-time forecasting – leaving valuable potential untapped.
A big data solution enables companies to access the required data. By integrating a cloud platform, information from multiple sources – from ERP systems to internet resources and third-party data – can be collated and analyzed. For example, business travel management data can improve forecasting by providing insight into employee expenses, travel costs, and spending trends. With this data, extensive simulations can be carried out, illustrating in detail what the potential effects of changed parameters such as tariff increases may be.
With this type of scenario planning, CFOs can not only respond to change, but also anticipate and consciously manage its effects through what-if simulations. In doing so, they strengthen the organization's resilience.
AI-powered data analysis and forecasting
It is essential to react quickly to unforeseeable market fluctuations. However, many CFOs still rely on time-consuming, partially manual processes, often fragmented across systems, to gather and evaluate data. According to the SAP Concur CFO Insights Report of 2025, 38% state that this represents one of the biggest internal challenges. Artificial intelligence offers a considerable advantage in this regard with its faster and more accurate forecasting models. AI processes large volumes of heterogeneous datasets in real-time, assisting CFOs in making time-sensitive decisions.
One significant change is the transition from bottom-up to top-down forecasting models. Instead of laboriously gathering data from individual departments, AI systems analyze CRM data and automatically generate detailed revenue forecasts. This method has often proven to be more accurate than conventional approaches, as it compensates for the tendency of individual managers to underestimate revenue forecasts, which can lead to significant forecast inaccuracies.
Finance teams have long played a key role in decision-making. This particular role is evolving – driven by new tools and methodologies – toward deriving actionable insights from AI-generated insights. To tap into the full potential of these technologies, teams must foster active participation across all members and maintain a high-quality data foundation. This is the only way for the company to efficiently deal with a volatile market environment and overcome the challenges of constantly changing conditions.
Strategic adaptation and rapid action
Real-time data and AI analytics not only prepare finance leaders for times of crisis – they also help resolve them and support the development of new revenue strategies and cost models. For example, in the context of rising tariffs and trade conflicts, inflation and procurement costs can surge rapidly, presenting companies with pressing questions:According to Gartner, 45% of CFOs do not have any immediate adjustment/response plans for significant cost increases, such as those caused by tariffs. At best, this can lead to profit losses; at worst, it can threaten the viability of the organization.
To avoid this, CFOs must weigh the extent to which they can absorb additional costs. On average, 73% pass on tariff increases to customers.Price adjustments depend on factors such as margins, cash buffers, a product's competitive position, and its price sensitivity. High-profit margins and sufficient buffers can absorb temporary cost increases, allowing companies to maintain stable prices. In this way, market shares can be secured and even expanded, especially if competitors lose shares due to the changed market structure. In some cases, keeping prices stable can even be profitable for companies with lower margins.Timing, however, is crucial. CFOs need to assess whether the situation is temporary or whether long-term adjustments are required to secure profitability and their market position. According to Gartner, CFOs are increasingly exploring alternative strategies, such as using tariff exemptions, free trade areas, and adjusting the import structure to lower the impact of higher tariffs. Advanced technologies, such as digital twins, can also help companies optimize their supply chains and reduce costs. It is crucial to carefully evaluate all available options, develop a tailored strategy, and implement it swiftly. This helps minimize potential profit losses in the process.Navigating external disruption with foresight
In increasingly volatile business environments, CFOs need to be agile and forward-thinking to keep pace with the ongoing dynamics. The key is not to rely on old structures but to seize new opportunities through flexibility and data-driven scenario planning and modeling. Using modern scenario planning tools and AI-powered forecasting is essential. By transforming real-time data into actionable models and scenarios, CFOs can navigate uncertainty effectively. Their role is to harness these tools effectively and help shape forward-looking strategies – because the future belongs to those who are ready and able to adapt quickly and decisively.
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