New Zealand severe weather warnings: Heavy rain, thunderstorms expected across North and South Islands
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The North Island will face the maximum brunt of the storm with orange heavy rain warnings and severe thunderstorm watches in place for several regions, while the South Island is also expected to experience heavy rainfall, particularly in the upper regions and the ranges.
MetService meteorologist Mmathapelo Makgabutlane explained that the weather system is moving across New Zealand, bringing northerly winds to the North Island and southerly winds to the South Island.
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"We've got a large weather system moving across us, bringing in that northerly wind for the North Island. However, in the South Island, it is moving up with more of a southerly wind, so it's kind of coming in from two different directions. But for the North Island, (it) is that warmer air that's in circulation, and those northerly winds and bringing in plenty of rain, but also plenty of rain for the South Island as well," she said.
Northland is under an orange heavy rain warning, with expectations of 80 to 120mm of rain, which could go up to 150mm in a few areas due to downpours and possible thunderstorms. A strong wind watch and a thunderstorm watch are also in effect for the region. Rainfall could peak at up to 40mm an hour, and there was a small chance of the
thunderstorm warning
being upgraded to red.
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MetService urged Northland residents to clear drains and gutters, avoid low-lying areas, and drive cautiously.
"Expect 80 to 120mm of rain, with possibly up to 150mm in localised areas, especially in downpours and possible thunderstorms."
Makgabutlane cautioned about the potential for surface flooding due to intense bursts of rain.
"With the heavy rain that's in place already, those shorter, intense bursts of rain could bring things like surface planning possibly," she added.
New Zealand weather: Cities under watch
Severe thunderstorm watches are in place for Auckland, Great Barrier Island, the Coromandel Peninsula the Bay of Plenty, and Rotorua alongside existing alerts for Northland and Taranaki. There was a moderate chance of the rain watch being upgraded to a warning.
Orange heavy rain warnings were issued for Northland, the Bay of Plenty, Tongariro National Park, and Mount Taranaki.
Heavy rain watches are in effect for Coromandel, Waikato, western Bay of Plenty, and King Country. Heavy rain warnings are in place around Mt Taranaki, the area south of Lake Taupō and Bay of Plenty (east of Whakatane and Gisborne/Tai Rāwhiti, north of Ruatoria). A severe thunderstorm watch is also in place in north Taranaki.
The rain in Northland was just starting to arrive as of 7am local time , and heavy falls for Auckland were expected today into the afternoon and evening.
Although there were no warnings for the lower North Island, including Wellington, Makgabutlane indicated it was expected to be a "pretty wet day" there, especially from late morning into the afternoon.
"I'd say if you're in the North Island today, definitely keep an eye on the radar and the forecast. It is looking like a wet day out there."
In the South Island, a heavy rain watch was in place for Nelson, northwest of Motueka, the Richmond and Bryant ranges and the Rai Valley. The ranges in Westland had an orange heavy rain warning, as did the headwaters of the Otago lakes and rivers. The Canterbury High Country had a strong wind watch in place overnight.
"For the South Island, the other place I'll highlight is the top of the South Island - so places like Buller, but especially Tasman and parts of Nelson as well, we're also seeing some heavy rain in that area with a couple of rain watches in place until the early afternoon," Makgabutlane said.
MetService meteorologist Heather Keats said the strongest wind gust recorded was 150km/h in Methven high country.
"As for the rain, Tasman District has received the most in the last sort of 6 to 12 hours, but actually Hokitika in the last hour had 23mm of rain," she said.
Keats said as that front moves north, the South Island would get "a much brighter and calmer afternoon and evening".
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I would request people to avoid movement and if it starts to rain, please stay put where you are whether it is your office or residence,' he said. Flights at Jinnah International Airport were delayed, cancelled, or diverted. Authorities deployed 26 de-watering pumps to clear standing water, while several bypasses and main roads were closed. Live Events Addressing a press conference, Wahab acknowledged the scale of the crisis. 'Climate change is a reality. If you want to make someone a target of criticism and say whatever you want, you can. But, you can see how huge a challenge climate change is for any government, state, or administration around the world.' What are cloudbursts and why have they been so deadly? The devastation has been worsened by cloudbursts, sudden downpours that unleash more than 100 millimetres of rain in an hour over a small area. These events are often described as 'rain bombs' because of their explosive nature. 'Mountains create conducive conditions where the rapid updraft movement of air happens,' said Dr Sandeep Pattnaik, Associate Professor at the School of Earth, Ocean and Climate Sciences, IIT Bhubaneswar. 'Because atmospheric instability is often caused by the mixing of different air masses, particularly over the northwestern Himalayan mountainous region, it leads to the rapid and large-scale accumulation of water vapour over certain locations.' He explained that when this water vapour builds up beyond a threshold, the clouds collapse. 'Once the excess accumulation of this water vapour and associated hydrometeors, called water loading, exceeds a certain threshold, the cloud is no longer able to hold that water, hence it releases large amounts of water over a short period.' As reported by Reuters, Fahad Saeed, a senior climate scientist at Berlin-based Climate Analytics, said that in the mountains of northern Pakistan, the warm monsoon system coming from the east was meeting colder air coming from the west, from the subtropical jet stream - a high-altitude weather system that originates in the Mediterranean. Global warming is pushing this jet stream further south in summer, he said, where it can now combine with the lower-level clouds of the monsoon in Pakistan, forming a tower of clouds which then generatesg intense rain. Similar intense rainfall, though triggered by different local factors, takes place around the world, such as the floods in Texas in July, when more than 300 mm of rain fell in less than an hour, sending a wall of water down the Guadalupe River. Tragedies in the North In Buner district, a single cloudburst claimed as many as 300 lives. Flash floods and landslides destroyed entire villages, while boulders crashing down steep slopes reduced homes to rubble. In one case, 24 members of a family in Qadar Nagar died on the eve of a wedding when their house was swept away. Umar Khan, the head of the family, said he survived only because he was not home at the time. Four of his relatives are still missing. India also hit Neighbouring India has faced similar disasters this season. Uttarakhand was struck by a cloudburst earlier this month, flooding the Himalayan village of Dharali. The event revived memories of the 2013 Uttarakhand floods, which killed more than 6,000 people and affected over 4,500 villages. If a cloudburst happens over flat land, the rainfall spreads over a wide area, so the impact is less severe, said Pradeep Dangol, a senior hydrology research associate at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, based in Nepal. But in steep mountain valleys, the rain is concentrated into narrow streams and slopes, with the potential to trigger flash floods and landslides, he said. Why South Asia is vulnerable The Himalayas, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush mountain ranges combine with moist monsoon winds to create conditions ripe for cloudbursts. Scientists say these events are becoming more frequent as the atmosphere warms. 'Whenever an event happens, it is a multidimensional issue. One thing is very sure, because the atmosphere gets warmer, erratic patterns develop. A rise in temperature leads to holding more water vapour, and it will lead to more rainfall,' Dr Pattnaik told India Today. Khalid Khan, a former special secretary for climate change in Pakistan, warned: 'Rising global temperatures have supercharged the hydrologic cycle, leading to more intense and erratic rainfall. In our northern regions, warming accelerates glacier melt, adds excessive moisture to the atmosphere, and destabilises mountain slopes. In short, climate change is making rare events more frequent, and frequent events more destructive.' Can they be predicted? Cloudbursts remain almost impossible to forecast. Asfandyar Khan Khattak, an official from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, admitted: 'There was no forecasting system anywhere in the world that could predict the exact time and location of a cloudburst.' Even in areas with early warning systems, such as Buner district, the sudden intensity of the rainfall struck before alerts could be issued. Community organisations in northern Pakistan advise residents to avoid building near rivers or valleys, to keep emergency kits ready, and to postpone travel in hilly regions during heavy rains. They also stress the importance of afforestation and widening riverbanks to absorb excess water. A warming future Global warming has already breached the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold set in the Paris Agreement. The Himalayas could lose up to 80 per cent of their glaciers by the end of this century if current trends continue. The Pakistan Meteorological Department has forecast further heavy rainfall in Sindh, Balochistan, and parts of Punjab in the coming days, warning of possible urban flooding in Karachi, Thatta, Badin, Tharparkar, and Hyderabad. As rains continue and floodwaters rise, Pakistan's struggle underlines a larger truth. The monsoon is shifting, becoming less predictable and more destructive, and its impacts are falling hardest on those least prepared to withstand them.
