Fed's Collins Advocates Actively Patient Policy Approach
00:00Clearly uncertainty remains elevated, pulling together the many types of data and the analyses that my staff and I examine. My expectation is that tariffs will boost inflation over the second half of this year, while the extent of the increase remains uncertain. It seems likely that core PC inflation will be in the vicinity of 3%, perhaps by year's end before resuming its decline. And concerning the labour market side of our mandate. Tariffs should slow demand and hiring, but not necessarily by a large amount. Of course there are risks to this baseline outlook and I do not rule out scenarios with larger or more persistent effects from tariffs and ongoing economic uncertainty, or I don't rule out scenarios in which the effects are more muted. Calibrating appropriate policy in this context is challenging, but continued overall, solid economic conditions enable the Fed to take the time to carefully assess the wide range of incoming data. So in my view, what I call an actively patient approach to monetary policy remains appropriate at this time.
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