How Japanese Assets Are Reacting to the U.S. Trade Deal
Automakers such as Toyota and Honda led the way, surging by double-digit percentages, as the U.S.-Japan deal was less onerous for the car industry than some feared.
Japanese bond yields rose, with the 10-year yield moving up toward 1.6%.
The yen held broadly steady against the U.S. dollar.
Here is the latest in charts:
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Yahoo
12 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Is There An Opportunity With China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corporation Ltd's (SGX:G92) 48% Undervaluation?
Key Insights The projected fair value for China Aviation Oil (Singapore) is S$2.26 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity China Aviation Oil (Singapore) is estimated to be 48% undervalued based on current share price of S$1.18 Industry average discount to fair value of 65% suggests China Aviation Oil (Singapore)'s peers are currently trading at a higher discount How far off is China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corporation Ltd (SGX:G92) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex. We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free. The Method We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate: 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$68.2m US$72.8m US$66.6m US$63.1m US$61.2m US$60.3m US$60.2m US$60.5m US$61.1m US$62.0m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ -8.55% Est @ -5.27% Est @ -2.98% Est @ -1.38% Est @ -0.26% Est @ 0.53% Est @ 1.08% Est @ 1.46% Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 5.8% US$64.5 US$65.0 US$56.2 US$50.3 US$46.1 US$43.0 US$40.5 US$38.5 US$36.7 US$35.2 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$476m We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.4%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 5.8%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2035 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$62m× (1 + 2.4%) ÷ (5.8%– 2.4%) = US$1.8b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$1.8b÷ ( 1 + 5.8%)10= US$1.0b The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$1.5b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of S$1.2, the company appears quite good value at a 48% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind. Important Assumptions We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at China Aviation Oil (Singapore) as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 5.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. Check out our latest analysis for China Aviation Oil (Singapore) SWOT Analysis for China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Strength Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry. Currently debt free. Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows. Weakness Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Oil and Gas market. Opportunity Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the Singaporean market. Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%. Threat No apparent threats visible for G92. Looking Ahead: Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For China Aviation Oil (Singapore), we've compiled three relevant factors you should consider: Risks: For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for China Aviation Oil (Singapore) that you should be aware of. Future Earnings: How does G92's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Singaporean stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
12 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Those who invested in Multi-Chem (SGX:AWZ) five years ago are up 457%
When you buy shares in a company, it's worth keeping in mind the possibility that it could fail, and you could lose your money. But on a lighter note, a good company can see its share price rise well over 100%. Long term Multi-Chem Limited (SGX:AWZ) shareholders would be well aware of this, since the stock is up 276% in five years. It's down 2.1% in the last seven days. Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns. Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit. While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement. During five years of share price growth, Multi-Chem achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 32% per year. This EPS growth is remarkably close to the 30% average annual increase in the share price. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth. The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image). We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. This free interactive report on Multi-Chem's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further. What About Dividends? When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Multi-Chem, it has a TSR of 457% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments! A Different Perspective Multi-Chem's TSR for the year was broadly in line with the market average, at 29%. It has to be noted that the recent return falls short of the 41% shareholders have gained each year, over half a decade. Although the share price growth has slowed, the longer term story points to a business well worth watching. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Multi-Chem better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Multi-Chem you should know about. Multi-Chem is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of small cap companies at attractive valuations which insiders have been buying. Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Singaporean exchanges. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
42 minutes ago
- Yahoo
The latest meme stock mania is being driven by a historic short-squeeze that raises the risk of a downturn, Goldman warns
The boom in meme stocks is being driven by a historic short-squeeze, Goldman says. A basket of stocks with the highest short interest is up 60% in three months, the bank said. The stock market often posts outsize gains after a burst of speculation, but this can raise the risk of a downturn. Bullish exuberance among retail traders drove a new meme stock rally this week. According to Goldman Sachs, it's just the latest episode in "one of the sharpest short squeezes on record." And while it's got room to run, it also raises the risk of a downturn, the bank said. Analysts said this week's rally in meme stocks, which saw companies like Opendoor, Kohl's, and other so-called DORKs surge, is part of a historic short-squeeze that recalls similarly bullish moments like 2000 and 2021. The bank said that heavily shorted stocks beloved by retail traders have trounced the broader market in the last few months. A basket of stocks popular with the retail crowd and another basket that tracks the most-shorted stocks have been up 50% and 60%, respectively, since April, compared to 28% for the broader S&P 500. Goldman Sachs' Speculative Trading Indicator — a gauge for how much trading activity is attributed to unprofitable stocks, penny stocks, or stocks with high valuations — spiked to its highest level since around 2021. Despite the frothiness, it's actually good news for near-term returns. When the gauge shows a sharp increase over a three-month period, stocks have typically outperformed for the following twelve months. However, the bank warned that the music eventually stops, and such wild bursts of euphoric trading actually raise the risk of a decline. "The recent rise in speculative trading activity signals near-term upside risk for the broad equity market but also increases the risk of an eventual downturn," the analysts wrote. The meme stock rally this week has fanned concern among other market forecasters, though many say the broader market still appears healthy. Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone, told Business Insider that stocks are still being propped up by a resilient US economy, strong corporate earnings, and optimism over President Donald Trump's trade deals, though sentiment was approaching extreme levels. Art Hogan, the chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, said he didn't believe meme stocks were a symptom of a larger valuation problem in the market, calling the latest rally "more noise than it is a signal." Read the original article on Business Insider
