Government proposal in 2024 for a panel on ‘demographic challenges' never took off
In her Interim Budget speech on February 1, 2024, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that the committee will be constituted to consider the challenges arising from 'fast population growth and demographic changes'. The terms of reference and the composition of the committee were never notified.
On Friday (August 15, 2025), in his Independence Day speech, Mr. Modi said that the 'demography of the country is being changed as part of a conspiracy and a well-planned plot' and that the Mission will do its work in a well thought-out and definite manner in the stipulated time to deal with 'this grave crisis that is looming over India'.
Census, which gives a clear picture of migration and demographic changes, was last done in 2011 and the next population count is expected in 2027.
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR), the average number of children per woman, in the country has remained constant at 2.0 in 2021, the same as 2020, according to the Sample Registration System report for 2021 released by the Registrar General of India on May 7.
Bihar has reported the highest TFR at 3.0, while Delhi and West Bengal reported the lowest TFR of 1.4.
Though there is no accurate data on demographic changes in the country, police and security agencies have been regularly flagging the issue at various forums.
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During the annual Director General of Police conference in 2021, which was presided by the Prime Minister, police officers from Uttar Pradesh and Assam submitted research papers that highlighted demographic changes in districts along the international border with Nepal and Bangladesh.
The compendium of reports compiled by the Intelligence Bureau, which was later pulled down from its website in 2022, said that police officers had submitted essays highlighting the ongoing demographic changes in bordering States, districts, sub-divisions and in some cases at the level of bordering villages.
'These have been prepared with the help of data collected through Census exercises, National Family and Health Surveys, local surveys, data enumerated by going through voters' list, etc. However, the thrust remains on the overall demographic changes. These demographic changes in the bordering belt are presenting a big challenge to national security, particularly at the level of border villages and bordering sub-divisions,' the report had said.
The officers highlighted an increase in number of mosques, seminaries and a high decadal growth in population in these areas.
The Assam Police paper said that the decadal growth in population – from 2011 to 2021, within 10 km of Bangladesh border was 31.45%, higher than the projected national and State average of 12.5% and 13.54% respectively. It said that four districts shared borders with Bangladesh – Cachar, Karimganj, Dhubri and South Salmara.
The report pointed out that in 2001, the 'bordering areas' of Cachar had a population of 49,224, out of which 29,160 were Hindus, while in 2021, out of the total population of 76,319 in these areas, Hindu population stood at 48,223, around 63%. The Muslim population in 2001 stood at 19,957, while in 2021 it stood at 27,823, around 36% of the total population.
Based on the papers submitted by the police officers, it was suggested to further augment the existing intelligence grid and create more police stations, particularly in the bordering areas of Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Assam. It was also suggested to engage border population in the overall management of border affairs making them the second line of defence by constituting Village Level Defence Committees, opening more units of National Cadet Corps and 'inculcating sense of nationalism' among them.
The Uttar Pradesh Police paper said that out of 1,047 villages in seven border districts of Maharajganj, Siddharthnagar, Balrampur, Bahraich, Shravasti, Pilibhit and Khiri, 303 villages had a Muslim population between 30%-50%, while 116 villages had a Muslim population of more than 50%.
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