Robert Whittaker vs. Reinier de Ridder prediction, pick: Middleweight war at UFC on ABC 9

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Will Whittaker bounce back by stopping de Ridder at UFC Abu Dhabi?
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC on ABC 9 main event between former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker and Reinier de Ridder.
Robert Whittaker UFC on ABC 9 preview
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Reinier de Ridder UFC on ABC 9 preview
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Robert Whittaker vs. Reinier de Ridder point of interest: Middleweight maelstrom
The main event in Abu Dhabi features a ranked middleweight matchup between Robert Whittaker and Reinier de Ridder.
Coming from a traditional martial arts base, Whittaker has developed into one of the more unique striking stylists at 185 pounds.
Using a combination of speed, accuracy, and a fluid economy of movement, the Australian will deceptively blitz off different angles. Like many karate-based strikers, Whittaker will feint or show a certain speed to draw his opponent into a false sense of security, only to disrupt the perceived timing with off-beat strikes.
As we've seen in multiple fights, Whittaker often will assert himself through rear-legged front kicks that he uses to launch himself into variations of left hooks and shifting overhand shots. The former champ also has no issue when it comes to sticking to his fundamentals, building offense off of deceptive jabs and feints.
That said, Whittaker is not beyond being taxed for his sometimes low-handed approach and will need to be on his best behavior – particularly early.
Although de Ridder is primarily known for his grappling, the Dutchman has proven that his striking skills are not to be overlooked.
Aside from being long and lanky, de Ridder is a southpaw who likes to stay active with his jab. When feeling in stride, de Ridder can build off of his jab and put together strikes, typically punctuating his presence with underrated kicks and knees.
De Ridder's front teeps, in particular, could be a useful tool that works both defensively and offensively for "The Dutch Knight," given how uncomfortable Whittaker has looked against some taller opponents in the past. Still, de Ridder will need to be mindful about being countered considering his traditionally porous defense.
Robert Whittaker vs. Reinier de Ridder point of interest: Winning the wrestling
Given the "striker vs. grappler" dynamic in this fight as far as win conditions go, winning the wrestling should be paramount for both parties this weekend.
Despite coming from a judo base, de Ridder has made some steady improvements to his wrestling since shifting his training camps stateside to train at Sanford MMA in South Florida. De Ridder will still try for cheeky uchi mata attempts from the clinch, but the Dutchman is also not shy about changing levels for a more traditional double-leg takedown when the occasion calls for it.
Although he might lack some athleticism and explosivity on his entries and finishes, de Ridder does a deceptively decent job of chaining to and from the single-position. Once de Ridder can ground his opposition, his giant frame starts to resemble a giant squid swallowing a ship at sea, given how he engulfs his enemies.
Should de Ridder get a dominant position on Whittaker early, it could spell trouble for the former champion. That said, Whittaker has arguably proven to be much more difficult to control than many initially presumed when he moved up to 185 pounds.
Aside from the fact that Whittaker's footwork makes it difficult for his opponents to set up their shots, the Australian also shows the small technical intricacies that make him hard to ground or hold down when grasped.
For example, while most fighters are reliant on more traditional defenses such as sprawls or battles for under-hooks, they typically end up losing out to superior grapplers since these defensive tactics involve a commitment to contact (which in turn begets more grappling). Whereas Whittaker, though capable of using those defenses, does not rely on them. Instead, 'The Reaper' prefers to head off takedown attempts at the pass.
Already possessing a strong base and balance, Whittaker's hip and grip awareness also have improved through the years.
Not only does Whittaker utilize grip breaks and wrist controls, but the 34-year-old Australian is also disciplined about consistently circling out to his opponent's weak side, which helps dissuade re-shots and takedown chain adjustments from his foes. Even Romero had difficulty grasping or chaining off his initial attempts due to Whittaker's persistence to fight hands.
What is even more impressive is Whittaker's ability to go from thwarting takedown attempts to striking off the breaks (which will also likely keep de Ridder honest in exchanges with him).
Still, if Whittaker does find himself on the bottom in this fight, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt will need to be extra careful when scrambling back to his feet, considering the hay de Ridder can make with back exposure.
Robert Whittaker vs. Reinier de Ridder odds
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the former champion, listing Whittaker -154 and de Ridder +120 via FanDuel.
Robert Whittaker vs. Reinier de Ridder prediction, pick
Considering people's propensity to overcorrect the steering wheel, I'm not surprised to see so much respect for de Ridder on the betting lines.
As someone who cashed on de Ridder in his last two outings and preached about his underrated improvements before his upset win over Bo Nickal, I can understand taking a shot on the Dutch fighter at plus money. If de Ridder ends up on top of Whittaker early in this fight, there is no denying his finishing potential.
That said, I'm not sure I buy any of the "size" or "grappling weakness" narratives that de Ridder backers are using as their arugmentative cruxes prior to this competition.
First off, it's not so much tall or long fighters that trouble Whittaker; it's fighters who can competently counter (as counter strikes/counter strikers are responsible for the lion's share of his knockdowns and losses alike). And as far as Whittaker's grappling goes, "The Reaper" has traditionally done his best work against grapple-first fighters.
The current champion, Dricus Du Plessis, may have been able to get off some damage on Whittaker in their fight, but – aside from the fact that a counter strike standing is what sparked off the actual finish – "DDP" has proven to be a standout fighter in more ways than one.
Khamzat Chimaev also had success when it came to getting to certain positions on Whittaker (who tapped from a prior jaw injury and not a submission), but the Chechen fighter is also arguably the best MMA wrestler at 185 pounds and the best one-round fighter since a prime B.J. Penn.
De Ridder is an underrated talent by my measure, I just don't think he has the speed or athleticism to reliably get a beat on Whittaker in the larger octagon. Couple that with de Ridder's lack of counter-striking threats and suspect defense standing, and I believe that this could be a vintage win for Whittaker.
The official pick is for Whittaker to find a knockout in the middle frames.
Prediction: Whittaker inside the distance
Robert Whittaker vs. Reinier de Ridder start time, how to watch
As the main event, Whittaker and de Ridder are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 5:10 p.m. ET. The fight broadcasts live on ABC and streams on ESPN+.