No laughing matter: how Nigel Farage stole the lead in UK politics

Sydney Morning Herald

5 days ago

I have always been deeply sceptical of claims – repeated with metronomic regularity before every election – that Australia's two-party system is breaking down. The last federal election was supposed to see a Greens breakthrough. They lost all but one seat. The teals were breathlessly proclaimed as heralds of 'a new politics'. (Yawn.) Their numbers remained static: gained one (maybe), lost one. Labor emerged stronger than it has ever been. While the result was a catastrophe for the Coalition, the votes the opposition bled went to the government.
The twin guardrails of compulsory and preferential voting raise the barriers to minor parties and insurgents and protect us from the extremes of left and right. Although our politics sometimes seem fraught, among the democracies Australia is a model of stability.
The story is very different elsewhere, where the franchise is exercised under different voting methods. Recent European elections have seen upheavals across the continent, with established postwar parties displaced by new political movements led by charismatic disruptors such as Emmanuel Macron in France, Giorgia Meloni in Italy and Geert Wilders in the Netherlands.
In Britain, a similar fragmentation of the major parties is increasingly evident – originally on the right, but now on the left as well. Although Labour won a smashing victory only a year ago, every major opinion poll finds it would now lose its majority. An average of the 10 leading polls, published on the government's first anniversary, put the Reform party of Brexit leader Nigel Farage ahead with 28.4 per cent. Labour has sunk to 23.9 per cent, while the Tories languish on a derisory 18 per cent. Although it won only five seats last year, Reform's surging support since puts it on the verge of a breakthrough.
Farage is a charismatic populist: a champion of nostalgic patriotism, scourge of political correctness and skilful practitioner of the politics of grievance. His rhetoric is heavily laced with racial dog-whistling. As a communicator, he leaves Keir Starmer for dead.
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Reform has already eaten deeply into the Conservative Party's electoral base. Now Farage is targeting Labour. With a Tory recovery nowhere in sight, Starmer and Farage have both declared that the next election will be fought between Labour and Reform. Former prime minister David Cameron has been saying privately that he expects Reform to win more seats than the Conservatives.
The strategically vital constituency in British politics today is no longer the middle class, but the old industrial working class, particularly in the north of England. These people – older, poorer, marginalised – were once rock-solid Labour. Captured by Boris Johnson in 2019 – they are staunch Brexiteers – they came home to Labour last year. Now, they are stampeding to Farage. His bloke-in-the-pub persona cuts through with them as surely as Starmer, the preachy human rights barrister from north London, does not.
The growing belief among establishment conservatives that Farage is more likely than the Tories to win a large swath of seats from Labour has changed their attitude towards him. While his crude populism still leaves them cold as they despair at their own party's weakness, they increasingly see Reform as the only feasible pathway to ousting Starmer.