Frederic Mishkin: There's permanent damage to a trusted system
Frederic Mishkin, former Fed governor, joins CNBC's 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss outlooks on long term yields, the potential economic fallout of Trump's trade policies, and more.
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Wall Street Journal
34 minutes ago
- Wall Street Journal
Trump Disclosure Shows $57 Million in Earnings From Early Crypto Push
President Trump earned around $57 million from his stake in a family-backed cryptocurrency firm last year, according to a new financial disclosure form, showing the early returns on a burgeoning digital-asset empire. Trump's annual financial disclosure, released by the Office of Government Ethics, reveals his vast and varied income streams and holdings, covering everything from golf resorts to merchandising deals to stock investments in such companies as Apple and Berkshire Hathaway.
New York Post
41 minutes ago
- New York Post
The Israel-Iran conflict is shaking the markets — but nervous investors aren't panicking
Wall Street's myopia was on full display in the immediate aftermath of the Israeli airstrikes against Iran. Many of us were worried about the possibility of World War III as we saw the attacks almost in real time Thursday night. Many of my sources were trying to gauge impacts on the Dow, oil prices and interest rates. Advertisement You can make a good case that there is a place for such shortsightedness. Leave the far-reaching geopolitical analysis to those who are better equipped to game-plan those outcomes, and the investor class should stay in its lane. People still have to save for retirement, invest those savings, even if the Middle East is imploding. Advertisement That said, the Wall Street take on the contretemps is certainly worth dissecting. You can glean, if you look through the conflict's short-term impact on specific pieces of economic data and push the smart money on their meaning, some interesting broader conclusions about how the Israel-Iran conflict will ultimately shake out. The market's top-line response was muddled. Stocks initially sold off sharply, then came back only to tank into the close as Iran retaliated against Tel Aviv. Advertisement Oil prices — which are always sensitive to conflicts in the Middle East — jumped about 7%. But we've all seen worse on less existentially serious stuff. The Dow closed down less than 800 points; the rollout of the Trump tariff plan — before Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent began putting the old genie back in the bottle to prevent an economic meltdown — saw far more wild moves in all sorts of investments. When the trade war was raging, bond prices at one point tanked so much, you would think we were on the verge of the apocalypse. Advertisement On Friday, the 10-year bond yield rose but is still below 4.5%, meaning people weren't rushing to the safe haven of Treasuries to plan for the worst. Gold rallied, but it's been running hot for weeks amid the fears of tariff-induced inflation. Not panicking In other words, it seems like investors are nervous, but also they're not panicking because something good could follow something scary. Namely, Israel neutered not just a foe that is developing nukes and threatening its destruction. It also has degraded the world's most aggressively belligerent nation — the leading state sponsor of terrorism — by decapitating much of Iran's military leadership, key scientists that were on the verge of developing nukes, as well as large swaths of its armed forces. In saving itself, Israel did us all a favor — even the Arab world, much of which abhors Iran's destabilizing militarism. For investors, it could mean at the very least lower energy prices in the future. Rich Arab countries finally might agree to recognize Israel, and the investment opportunities that will bring. Advertisement I know saying the conflict could be long-term good for the markets sounds ignorant given what's at stake. But life isn't mostly binary. Fortunately in this case, what's good for stocks could be good for the world. Of course, one day in the market is just one day. Advertisement So much more will happen. Israel says it's not done with its military action. Iran retaliated, landing missiles in the heart of Tel Aviv after a first wave of deadly drones was largely swatted away by Israel's defenses. Advertisement I have family in Israel so I pray for their safety as I've done almost every day since Oct. 7. US military installations could be attacked. But some of my trading desk sources are pointing out that Israel seems to have its game plan down pretty solid, and the Iranian attack against us would be foolish since it already has its hands full. The Israelis knew who to take out — the generals and scientists — and it clearly knew how Iran could respond. It has already largely eliminated Iran's proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas. Advertisement Notice how Israel didn't take out Iran's oil infrastructure, at least not yet. If it did, oil prices would be higher and markets far more volatile. And maybe Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is betting on the Iranian people. I've never been to Iran, but I know plenty of Iranian Americans. They tell me the country is largely secular, run by a fanatical minority that Israel might be weakening significantly. This could be the push for regime change that we've been talking about for years. Trump kept in the loop President Trump here has been at his best, my Wall Street sources remind me, another reason they're not panic-selling. Israel kept him in the loop. He alerted the world that the attacks would happen Thursday. He then began distancing himself and our country from the direct conflict, while prodding Iran to get back to the negotiating table and end its nukes program. Who knows, they might finally listen. Wall Street is always looking for 'black swan' events — stuff most people don't see that could lead to catastrophic market results. Wars are terrible. It would be great if Iran chose peace, but maybe eliminating it as a threat to Israel and a lot more is a black swan that produces some long-term peace and prosperity. Let's hope so and pray for the peace dividend it should deliver.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Israel and Iran strike at each other in new wave of attacks
By Alexander Cornwell and Parisa Hafezi TEL AVIV/DUBAI (Reuters) -Israel and Iran launched fresh attacks on each other late on Saturday, stoking fears of a wider conflict after Israel expanded its surprise campaign against its main rival with a strike on the world's biggest gas field. Tehran called off nuclear talks that Washington had said were the only way to halt Israel's bombing, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the attacks were nothing compared with what Iran would see in the coming days. Israel's military said on Saturday that more missiles were launched from Iran towards Israel, and it was working to intercept them. It also said it was attacking military targets in Tehran. Iranian state television said Iran had launched missiles and drones at Israel. Several projectiles were visible in the night sky over Jerusalem late on Saturday. Air raid sirens did not sound in the city, but were heard in the northern Israeli city of Haifa. Israel's ambulance service said 14 people were injured, including one critically, at a two-storey house in northern Israel following an Iranian missile strike. Israeli media reported that one person had been killed in the strike. U.S. President Donald Trump had warned Iran of worse to come, but said it was not too late to halt the Israeli campaign if Tehran accepted a sharp downgrading of its nuclear programme. A round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks due to be held in Oman on Sunday was canceled, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi saying the discussions could not take place while Iran was being subjected to Israel's "barbarous" attacks. In the first apparent attack to hit Iran's energy infrastructure, the semi-official Tasnim news agency said Iran partially suspended production at the world's biggest gas field after an Israeli strike caused a fire there on Saturday. The South Pars field, offshore in Iran's southern Bushehr province, is the source of most of the gas produced in Iran. Fears about potential disruption to the region's oil exports had already driven up oil prices 9% on Friday even though Israel spared Iran's oil and gas on the first day of its attacks. An Iranian general, Esmail Kosari, said on Saturday that Tehran was reviewing whether to close the Strait of Hormuz controlling access to the Gulf for tankers. IRAN SAYS SCORES KILLED Iran said 78 people were killed on the first day of Israel's campaign, and scores more on the second, including 60 when a missile brought down a 14-storey apartment block in Tehran, where 29 of the dead were children. Iran had launched its own retaliatory missile volley on Friday night, killing at least three people in Israel. With Israel saying its operation could last weeks, and Netanyahu urging Iran's people to rise up against their Islamic clerical rulers, fears have grown of a regional conflagration dragging in outside powers. B'Tselem, a leading Israeli human rights organization, said on Saturday that instead of exhausting all possibilities for a diplomatic resolution, Israel's government had chosen to start a war that puts the entire region in danger. Tehran has warned Israel's allies that their military bases in the region would come under fire too if they helped shoot down Iranian missiles. However, 20 months of war in Gaza and a conflict in Lebanon last year have decimated Tehran's strongest regional proxies, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, reducing its options for retaliation. Israel sees Iran's nuclear programme as a threat to its existence, and said the bombardment was designed to avert the last steps to production of a nuclear weapon. Tehran insists the programme is entirely civilian and that it does not seek an atomic bomb. However the U.N. nuclear watchdog reported it this week as violating obligations under the global non-proliferation treaty.
