‘Massive consequence': Experts reveal city-killer asteroid could collide with the moon
An asteroid the size of a 10-story building could now make impact with the moon, which would global communications and sending the planet into digital meltdown.
The city-killing asteroid known as YR4 was first discovered in late 2024 and was initially given a 3 per cent chance of colliding with Earth.
However, the latest observations by NASA's Centre for Near Earth Object Studies at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory suggested that there was now a 4.3 per cent likelihood of YR4 smashing into the moon in 2032, up from 3.8 per cent in April and 1.7 per cent in February.
Scientists believe that if this occurs, the impact would be similar to a nuclear bomb, triggering an unprecedented meteor shower that could potentially put Earth's vital satellite systems in critical jeopardy.
Astrologist and cosmologist at the Australian National University Brad Tucker said that while the giant rock was no longer hurtling towards Earth, there would still be disastrous consequences for the planet if the massive asteroid hit the moon.
'So, when the odds shifted away from the earth they shifted towards the moon, it's still only four per cent - it's not even four per cent [it's] just about that - it's almost 1 in 25. That's enough that you want to pay attention to,' Mr Tucker said.
Mr Tucker, who has been closely following YR4's trajectory, stressed that although it remained unlikely for any debris fragments to hit the Earth's surface, rogue fragments of rock could enter the atmosphere and endanger hundreds of crucial satellites.
'We're not worried about it hitting the ground because it would be so small our atmosphere would absorb it; there's actually a worry it may hit all of those satellites that we have going around us and that would cause a problem,' Mr Tucker stated.
'There could be a massive consequence in relation to them breaking up and creating their own ring of debris.'
"We shouldn't just think about the earth in terms of safety, we really must think about the moon as well.'
New studies have shown the callosal amount of debris that could be pulled into the atmosphere if the moon was struck made it 1,000 times more likely a satellite would be compromised.
'So it's one of those downward scenarios where we are thinking because of the way earth is now set up it actually may still have an impact.'
If satellites were suddenly lost the ramifications would be widespread, disrupting global connectivity, navigation systems, financial markets and military operations.
Dr Paul Wiegert, an expert in solar system dynamics at Western University in Ontario who has studied the asteroids journey said YR4 would be the largest space rock to hit the moon 'in at least 5,000 years,' and could easily take out a satellite or a human-inhabited space station.
Discussions have now begun as to how governments and space agencies can divert the asteroid's course to protect the planet.
'There's a question now of can we do a mission to alter it away from the moon, we've done that before and once we reach a certain threshold, we should consider this mission because of the moon and because of that downward impact.'
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Sky News AU
10 hours ago
- Sky News AU
‘Massive consequence': Experts reveal city-killer asteroid could collide with the moon
An asteroid the size of a 10-story building could now make impact with the moon, which would global communications and sending the planet into digital meltdown. The city-killing asteroid known as YR4 was first discovered in late 2024 and was initially given a 3 per cent chance of colliding with Earth. However, the latest observations by NASA's Centre for Near Earth Object Studies at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory suggested that there was now a 4.3 per cent likelihood of YR4 smashing into the moon in 2032, up from 3.8 per cent in April and 1.7 per cent in February. Scientists believe that if this occurs, the impact would be similar to a nuclear bomb, triggering an unprecedented meteor shower that could potentially put Earth's vital satellite systems in critical jeopardy. Astrologist and cosmologist at the Australian National University Brad Tucker said that while the giant rock was no longer hurtling towards Earth, there would still be disastrous consequences for the planet if the massive asteroid hit the moon. 'So, when the odds shifted away from the earth they shifted towards the moon, it's still only four per cent - it's not even four per cent [it's] just about that - it's almost 1 in 25. That's enough that you want to pay attention to,' Mr Tucker said. Mr Tucker, who has been closely following YR4's trajectory, stressed that although it remained unlikely for any debris fragments to hit the Earth's surface, rogue fragments of rock could enter the atmosphere and endanger hundreds of crucial satellites. 'We're not worried about it hitting the ground because it would be so small our atmosphere would absorb it; there's actually a worry it may hit all of those satellites that we have going around us and that would cause a problem,' Mr Tucker stated. 'There could be a massive consequence in relation to them breaking up and creating their own ring of debris.' "We shouldn't just think about the earth in terms of safety, we really must think about the moon as well.' New studies have shown the callosal amount of debris that could be pulled into the atmosphere if the moon was struck made it 1,000 times more likely a satellite would be compromised. 'So it's one of those downward scenarios where we are thinking because of the way earth is now set up it actually may still have an impact.' If satellites were suddenly lost the ramifications would be widespread, disrupting global connectivity, navigation systems, financial markets and military operations. Dr Paul Wiegert, an expert in solar system dynamics at Western University in Ontario who has studied the asteroids journey said YR4 would be the largest space rock to hit the moon 'in at least 5,000 years,' and could easily take out a satellite or a human-inhabited space station. Discussions have now begun as to how governments and space agencies can divert the asteroid's course to protect the planet. 'There's a question now of can we do a mission to alter it away from the moon, we've done that before and once we reach a certain threshold, we should consider this mission because of the moon and because of that downward impact.'
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