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Earth to cross 1.5°C temperature rise threshold by 2029, warns UN

Earth to cross 1.5°C temperature rise threshold by 2029, warns UN

India Today2 days ago

The Arctic is expected to warm at more than three and a half times the global average. (Photo: Getty) India Today Environment Desk The Arctic is expected to warm at more than three and a half times
Winter temperatures projected to be 2.4°C above the recent 30-year baseline
South Asia is likely to continue experiencing wetter years
The world is on track to experience continued record-breaking temperatures over the next five years, sharply increasing climate-related risks for societies, economies, and sustainable development, according to a new report released by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
The WMO's latest decadal forecast, compiled with input from the UK Met Office and other global climate centers, projects an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will surpass 2024 as the warmest on record.
There is also an 86% probability that at least one of these years will see global temperatures more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average).
The five-year average warming for 2025-2029 is now 70% likely to exceed the 1.5C thresholdâ€'a sharp increase from last year's prediction. The Paris Agreement aims to limit long-term warming to well below 2C. (Photo: PTI)
The report warns that every fraction of a degree in additional warming intensifies heatwaves, extreme rainfall, droughts, melting of ice sheets and glaciers, ocean warming, and rising sea levels.
The Arctic is expected to warm at more than three and a half times the global average, with winter temperatures projected to be 2.4C above the recent 30-year baseline. Sea ice reductions are anticipated in the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk seas.
Rain patterns are also shifting, with wetter-than-average conditions forecast for the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia, and drier conditions expected over the Amazon.
South Asia is likely to continue experiencing wetter years, although seasonal variations will persist. Rain patterns are also shifting across the world. (Photo: AP)
'Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years,' said Ko Barrett, WMO Deputy Secretary-General. 'There will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet.'
The Paris Agreement aims to limit long-term warming to well below 2C, with efforts to keep it under 1.5C. However, the WMO stresses that temporary exceedances of these levels are becoming more frequent as global temperatures rise.
With COP30 set for later this year, the report points to the urgency for updated climate action plans to mitigate the mounting impacts of climate change.
The world is on track to experience continued record-breaking temperatures over the next five years, sharply increasing climate-related risks for societies, economies, and sustainable development, according to a new report released by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
The WMO's latest decadal forecast, compiled with input from the UK Met Office and other global climate centers, projects an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will surpass 2024 as the warmest on record.
There is also an 86% probability that at least one of these years will see global temperatures more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average).
The five-year average warming for 2025-2029 is now 70% likely to exceed the 1.5C thresholdâ€'a sharp increase from last year's prediction. The Paris Agreement aims to limit long-term warming to well below 2C. (Photo: PTI)
The report warns that every fraction of a degree in additional warming intensifies heatwaves, extreme rainfall, droughts, melting of ice sheets and glaciers, ocean warming, and rising sea levels.
The Arctic is expected to warm at more than three and a half times the global average, with winter temperatures projected to be 2.4C above the recent 30-year baseline. Sea ice reductions are anticipated in the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk seas.
Rain patterns are also shifting, with wetter-than-average conditions forecast for the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia, and drier conditions expected over the Amazon.
South Asia is likely to continue experiencing wetter years, although seasonal variations will persist. Rain patterns are also shifting across the world. (Photo: AP)
'Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years,' said Ko Barrett, WMO Deputy Secretary-General. 'There will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet.'
The Paris Agreement aims to limit long-term warming to well below 2C, with efforts to keep it under 1.5C. However, the WMO stresses that temporary exceedances of these levels are becoming more frequent as global temperatures rise.
With COP30 set for later this year, the report points to the urgency for updated climate action plans to mitigate the mounting impacts of climate change. Join our WhatsApp Channel

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Scientists Warn Heat Waves To Last Longer, Affect More Areas In India

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Earth to cross 1.5°C temperature rise threshold by 2029, warns UN
Earth to cross 1.5°C temperature rise threshold by 2029, warns UN

India Today

time2 days ago

  • India Today

Earth to cross 1.5°C temperature rise threshold by 2029, warns UN

The Arctic is expected to warm at more than three and a half times the global average. (Photo: Getty) India Today Environment Desk The Arctic is expected to warm at more than three and a half times Winter temperatures projected to be 2.4°C above the recent 30-year baseline South Asia is likely to continue experiencing wetter years The world is on track to experience continued record-breaking temperatures over the next five years, sharply increasing climate-related risks for societies, economies, and sustainable development, according to a new report released by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). The WMO's latest decadal forecast, compiled with input from the UK Met Office and other global climate centers, projects an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will surpass 2024 as the warmest on record. There is also an 86% probability that at least one of these years will see global temperatures more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average). The five-year average warming for 2025-2029 is now 70% likely to exceed the 1.5C thresholdâ€'a sharp increase from last year's prediction. The Paris Agreement aims to limit long-term warming to well below 2C. (Photo: PTI) The report warns that every fraction of a degree in additional warming intensifies heatwaves, extreme rainfall, droughts, melting of ice sheets and glaciers, ocean warming, and rising sea levels. The Arctic is expected to warm at more than three and a half times the global average, with winter temperatures projected to be 2.4C above the recent 30-year baseline. Sea ice reductions are anticipated in the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk seas. Rain patterns are also shifting, with wetter-than-average conditions forecast for the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia, and drier conditions expected over the Amazon. South Asia is likely to continue experiencing wetter years, although seasonal variations will persist. Rain patterns are also shifting across the world. (Photo: AP) 'Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years,' said Ko Barrett, WMO Deputy Secretary-General. 'There will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet.' The Paris Agreement aims to limit long-term warming to well below 2C, with efforts to keep it under 1.5C. However, the WMO stresses that temporary exceedances of these levels are becoming more frequent as global temperatures rise. With COP30 set for later this year, the report points to the urgency for updated climate action plans to mitigate the mounting impacts of climate change. The world is on track to experience continued record-breaking temperatures over the next five years, sharply increasing climate-related risks for societies, economies, and sustainable development, according to a new report released by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). The WMO's latest decadal forecast, compiled with input from the UK Met Office and other global climate centers, projects an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will surpass 2024 as the warmest on record. There is also an 86% probability that at least one of these years will see global temperatures more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average). The five-year average warming for 2025-2029 is now 70% likely to exceed the 1.5C thresholdâ€'a sharp increase from last year's prediction. The Paris Agreement aims to limit long-term warming to well below 2C. (Photo: PTI) The report warns that every fraction of a degree in additional warming intensifies heatwaves, extreme rainfall, droughts, melting of ice sheets and glaciers, ocean warming, and rising sea levels. The Arctic is expected to warm at more than three and a half times the global average, with winter temperatures projected to be 2.4C above the recent 30-year baseline. Sea ice reductions are anticipated in the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk seas. Rain patterns are also shifting, with wetter-than-average conditions forecast for the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia, and drier conditions expected over the Amazon. South Asia is likely to continue experiencing wetter years, although seasonal variations will persist. Rain patterns are also shifting across the world. (Photo: AP) 'Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years,' said Ko Barrett, WMO Deputy Secretary-General. 'There will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet.' The Paris Agreement aims to limit long-term warming to well below 2C, with efforts to keep it under 1.5C. However, the WMO stresses that temporary exceedances of these levels are becoming more frequent as global temperatures rise. With COP30 set for later this year, the report points to the urgency for updated climate action plans to mitigate the mounting impacts of climate change. Join our WhatsApp Channel

Heat records set to be broken over next 5 yrs: WMO
Heat records set to be broken over next 5 yrs: WMO

Hindustan Times

time2 days ago

  • Hindustan Times

Heat records set to be broken over next 5 yrs: WMO

New Delhi: There is an 80% chance that a year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than 2024, a new World Meteorological Organisation report has warned -- a forecast that shouldn't exactly be news because the past 11 years are the 11 warmest on record since records begin in 1880. Last year was the warmest on record, and before it, 2023. The report 'WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025-2029)' has also projected that there is a 70% chance that the five-year average warming for 2025-2029 will surpass 1.5 degrees C leading to frequent and severe heatwaves, droughts, and extreme weather events. This is up from the 47% probability flagged in last year's WMO report for 2024-2028 and 32% in the 2023 report for 2023-2027. The threshold is important because it is one of the goals of the Paris agreement. The WMO report emphasised the need for continued climate monitoring to inform decision-making and adapt to the growing impacts of climate change. It added that the annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is likely to be between 1.2 degrees C and 1.9 degrees C higher than the 1850-1900 average. This means that annual global temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels during next five years and stay well above annual mean temperatures seen in the last 60 years. WMO has however clarified that temporary breaches of the 1.5 degrees C goal even if over a few years will not be considered a failure of the Paris Agreement. 'The 1.5 degrees C (and 2 degrees C) level specified in the Paris Agreement refers to the long-term level of warming inferred from global temperatures, typically over 20 years,' the report said referring to the fact that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines future global warming levels in terms of a 20-year mean. But, the central estimate of the 20-year average warming for 2015-2034 is dangerously close to breaching 1.5 degrees C threshold at 1.44°C, (with a 90% confidence range of 1.22–1.54 degrees C), as per the report. A WMO team of international experts is considering all of these estimates in order to ensure consistent, reliable and timely tracking of long-term global temperature changes, the report has said. How and when the world would declare that the Paris Agreement's lower limit has been breached was a grey area so far. 'Every additional fraction of a degree of warming drives more harmful heatwaves, extreme rainfall events, intense droughts, melting of ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers, heating of the ocean, and rising sea levels,' the WMO report said. Arctic warming over the next five extended winters (November to March) is likely to be over three and a half times the global average, at 2.4 degrees C above the average temperature during the most recent 30-year baseline period (1991-2020). Further reductions in sea-ice concentration in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk are expected for March 2025-2029. Predicted rainfall patterns for May-September 2025-2029, relative to the 1991-2020 baseline, suggest wetter-than-average conditions in the Sahel, Northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia, and drier-than-average conditions in the Amazon. In recent years, apart from 2023, South Asia has been wetter-than-average. The forecast suggests this pattern will continue for the 2025-2029 period. WMO deputy secretary general Ko Barrett cited the 10 warmest years on record and added the new report provides no sign of respite over the coming years. '...this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet,' Barrett said in a statement. 'Continued climate monitoring and prediction is essential to provide decision-makers with science-based tools and information to help us adapt.' On March 14, the European Union's Earth Observation Programme Copernicus Climate Change Service said the world could cross the 1.5 degrees C long-term global warming threshold by September 2029 if the current warming trend continues, a timeline significantly sooner than the 'early 2030s' projection scientists widely agreed upon. The WMO report notes that each of the last ten years (2015-2024) were individually the warmest ten years on record primarily due to the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide being at the highest level in 800,000 years.

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