
Live Updates: U.S. Tariffs To Take Effect, a New Step in Trump's Trade War
It's been hard to keep track of the state of tariffs ever since. Mr. Trump has frequently issued updates over social media, threatening new tariffs on countries and companies alike, leveraging them to insert himself into foreign affairs and celebrating 'deals' that were often far from complete.
Mr. Trump's strategy has upended diplomatic ties, shaken markets and confounded entire industries. The tariffs target nations that supply a wide variety of goods to the United States, and Americans are likely to see higher prices on cars, electronics, groceries, liquors, lumber and gas.
And Mr. Trump's tariff campaign shows no signs of slowing down. On July 27, the European Union and the United States reached a preliminary trade deal after weeks of negotiations. On Aug. 1, he is set to impose another round of taxes on imports from many countries, including Canada and Mexico.
Here's a timeline of President Trump's widening โ and constantly shifting โ tariffs.
Jan. 20 ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฒ๐ฝ
Hours after he was sworn in, Mr. Trump announced that he would implement additional 25 percent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico starting on Feb. 1, accusing both countries of not doing enough to stop the flow of drugs and migrants into the United States. Read more โบ
Jan. 26 ๐จ๐ด
Surprising even some of his own staff members, Mr. Trump announced on social media that he would immediately impose 25 percent tariffs on all goods from Colombia โ and would raise them to 50 percent in one week โ after its government turned back planes carrying deported immigrants. Colombia's president, Gustavo Petro, briefly threatened tariffs of his own. But he quickly backed down, and soon so did Mr. Trump. That evening, the White House released a statement saying the government of Colombia had 'agreed to all of President Trump's terms' and the 'tariffs and sanctions will be held in reserve.' Read more โบ
Feb. 1 ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฒ๐ฝ ๐จ๐ณ
Mr. Trump signed an executive order imposing 25 percent tariffs on nearly all goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 10 percent tariff on China. The president said the tariffs were levied in response to his concerns about fentanyl smuggling and illegal immigration. Canada and Mexico said they would retaliate with tariffs of their own. China threatened 'countermeasures.' Read more โบ
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transcript Trudeau Announces Retaliatory Tariffs Against the U.S. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada laid out plans to impose more than $100 billion in retaliatory tariffs against the United States, and made clear that Canada was doing so reluctantly.
I want to speak directly to Americans, our closest friends and neighbors. This is a choice that, yes, will harm Canadians, but beyond that, it will have real consequences for you. Tariffs against Canada will put your jobs at risk, potentially shutting down American auto assembly plants and other manufacturing facilities. They will raise costs for you, including food at the grocery stores and gas at the pump. We don't want to be here. We didn't ask for this. But we will not back down in standing up both for Canadians and for the incredible, successful relationship and partnership between Canada and the United States.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada laid out plans to impose more than $100 billion in retaliatory tariffs against the United States, and made clear that Canada was doing so reluctantly.
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Justin Tang/The Canadian Press, vรญa Associated Press
Feb. 2 ๐
Facing widespread criticism over his tariff threats and their possible consequences for the economy, Mr. Trump acknowledged the possible negative consequences of the tariffs on social media. 'WILL THERE BE SOME PAIN? YES, MAYBE (AND MAYBE NOT!),' he said.
Feb. 3 ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฒ๐ฝ ๐ช๐บ
Mr. Trump agreed to a 30-day pause of his tariffs on Mexico and Canada while at the same time threatening new tariffs against the European Union. Read more โบ
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Mexican Government TV via Reuters
Feb. 4 ๐จ๐ณ
Mr. Trump's 10 percent tariffs on Chinese imports went into effect, and China responded with a series of retaliatory steps, including additional tariffs on products from the United States. Read more โบ
Feb. 7 ๐
Mr. Trump said he would broaden his trade war and introduce reciprocal tariffs on other countries but did not specify which countries would be affected. Read more โบ
Feb. 10 ๐
Mr. Trump resurrected a 25 percent tariff on all foreign steel and aluminum, restarting an old fight from his first term. Read more โบ
Feb. 13 ๐
Mr. Trump described a plan for broad reciprocal tariffs on America's trading partners, moves that would represent a dramatic overhaul of the global trading system. The goal, he said, was to force companies to bring manufacturing back to the United States. Read more โบ
Feb. 14 ๐
Mr. Trump said he would proceed with a plan to impose unspecified tariffs on foreign cars on April 2. He said he had planned to announce the tariffs April 1, which is April Fools' Day, but pushed it because he was 'a little superstitious.' Read more โบ
Feb. 25 ๐
An executive order directed Mr. Trump's commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, to investigate whether foreign production of copper posed a risk to national security, raising the prospects of tariffs on the material. White House officials did not share how much those tariffs would be, or when the inquiry could conclude. Read more โบ
Feb. 27 ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฒ๐ฝ ๐จ๐ณ
The president said the tariffs against Canada and Mexico โ and an additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods โ would go into effect on March 4 'as scheduled.' He said on social media that the action was necessary because 'Drugs are still pouring into our Country from Mexico and Canada at very high and unacceptable levels,' a claim not always supported by U.S. government reports. Read more โบ
March 1 ๐จ๐ฆ
Mr. Trump directed Mr. Lutnick to investigate whether imports of lumber threaten American national security. The results of the inquiry could lead to more tariffs on Canada, the largest exporter of wood to the United States. Read more โบ
March 4 ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฒ๐ฝ ๐จ๐ณ
Tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China โ the largest U.S. trading partners โ went into effect. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada responded with tariffs of 25 percent on $155 billion of American goods. Read more โบ
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The United States launched a trade war against Canada, their closest partner and ally, their closest friend. At the same time, they're talking about working positively with Russia, appeasing Vladimir Putin, a lying, murderous dictator. Make that make sense. Canadians are reasonable and we are polite, but we will not back down from a fight. Not when our country and the well-being of everyone in it is at stake. At the moment, the U.S. tariffs came into effect in the early hours of this morning, and so did the Canadian response. Canada will be implementing 25 percent tariffs against $155 billion worth of American goods, starting with tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods immediately, and tariffs on the remaining $125 billion of American products in 21 days time.
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CTV, via Associated Press
March 5 ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฒ๐ฝ
Under fire from U.S. automakers, Mr. Trump said he would pause tariffs on cars coming into the United States from Canada and Mexico for one month. The announcement came after he held a call with representatives from General Motors, the Ford Motor Company and Stellantis.
In a news conference, President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico said that if tariffs remained in place, the Mexican government would announce retaliatory measures on March 9.
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Mexico Government TV, via Reuters
March 6 ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฒ๐ฝ
Just as they were in Mr. Trump's first term, many of the tariffs placed on Canadian and Mexican products are suspended. Mr. Trump said that his reversal on tariffs he had framed as vital to America's security had 'nothing to do with the market' after the tariff news sent shock waves through the economy. He said he would still impose 25 percent tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum on March 12, and that reciprocal tariffs on all U.S. trading partners were still on track for April 2. Read more โบ
March 10 ๐จ๐ณ ๐จ๐ฆ
The Chinese government began imposing tariffs on many farm products from the United States. The tariffs included an additional 15 percent on American farm products like chicken and corn, and a 10 percent on products like soybeans and fruit.
Ontario, Canada's most populous province, announced its own tariffs, including a 25 percent surcharge on the electricity exported to Michigan, Minnesota and New York. Read more โบ
March 11 ๐จ๐ฆ
Furious at what he labeled an 'abusive threat from Canada,' Mr. Trump threatened to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports in response to the electricity surcharge. Both sides backed down after several hours. Doug Ford, the premier of Ontario, said he would suspend the electricity surcharge, and Mr. Trump said he would 'probably' reduce the tariff on Canadian metals. Read more โบ
March 12 ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ช๐บ
The European Union and Canada announced billions of dollars in retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, but European leaders said they would hold back on their tariffs until April 1 โ making it clear that they would prefer not to enact them, and would like to negotiate with Mr. Trump instead. 'Tariffs are taxes,' said Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, the bloc's executive arm. Read more โบ
March 13 ๐ช๐บ
Citing the European Union's plans for 50 percent tariffs on U.S. whiskey and several other American products, set to kick in on April 1, Mr. Trump floated one of his largest tariff threats to date: a 200 percent charge on all wines, Champagnes and alcoholic products from the E.U.'s member nations. Read more โบ
March 24 ๐
Countries who purchase oil from Venezuela โ either directly or from a third party โ faced tariffs of 25 percent on their exports to the United States, to begin on or after April 2. Read more โบ
March 26 ๐
Mr. Trump said he would impose a 25 percent tariff on all cars and car parts shipped into the United States, including American brands assembled overseas. Read more โบ
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transcript World Leaders React to Trump's Auto Tariffs President Trump's announcement of 25 percent tariffs on imported cars and auto parts prompted world leaders to rebuke the decision.
'It's my solemn promise that when President Trump threatens us again, we will fight back. We will fight back with everything we have to get the best deal for Canada.'
President Trump's announcement of 25 percent tariffs on imported cars and auto parts prompted world leaders to rebuke the decision.
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Nic Antaya for The New York Times
April 2 ๐
A 10 percent tariff was applied to all nations importing goods to the United States โ unless a tariff had already been announced on a product or industry. But that base line 10 percent was to be supplemented in certain cases by additional reciprocal tariffs that vary by nation. That meant dozens of countries, including many U.S. allies, faced tariffs far higher than they expected. Read more โบ
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transcript Trump Announces Tariffs on Global Trading Partners During a news conference, President Trump announced that he would impose a baseline 10 percent tariff on all trading partners, as well as double-digit 'reciprocal tariffs' on dozens of other countries.
This is one of the most important days, in my opinion, in American history. It's our declaration of economic independence. Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country. China โ first row, China 67 percent, that's tariffs charged to the U.S.A., including currency manipulation and trade barriers. So 67 percent, so we're going to be charging a discounted reciprocal tariff of 34 percent, I think. In other words, they charge us, we charge them. We charge them less. So how can anybody be upset? They will be because we never charge anybody anything. But now we're going to charge. European Union, they're very tough, very, very tough traders. You think of European Union, very friendly. They rip us off. It's so sad to see. It's going to be 'Liberation Day' in America. And it's going to be a day that hopefully you're going to look back in years to come and you're going to say, you know, he was right. This has turned out to be one of the most important days in the history of our country.
During a news conference, President Trump announced that he would impose a baseline 10 percent tariff on all trading partners, as well as double-digit 'reciprocal tariffs' on dozens of other countries.
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Doug Mills/The New York Times
April 4 ๐จ๐ณ
China's Finance Ministry announced a 34 percent tariff on imports from the United States, matching Mr. Trump's plans for 34 percent tariffs on exports from China. The Chinese Commerce Ministry also barred a group of 11 American companies from doing business in China. Read more โบ
April 5 ๐ป๐ณ
Vietnam asked Mr. Trump to delay imposing tariffs for at least 45 days. The United States is Vietnam's largest export market, and the 46 percent tariff rate was among the highest any country faced. Read more โบ
April 7 ๐ง๐ฉ๐จ๐ณ
Bangladesh asked for a three-month reprieve before any tariffs would be imposed on its exports to the United States. Read more โบ
Mr. Trump threatened to counter Beijing's retaliatory tariffs with an additional 50 percent tariff on China. Those tariffs would be additive, meaning that China could face 104 percent taxes on all exports. Read more โบ
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Lin Jian, the spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, accused the United States of 'economic bullying' after President Trump threatened an additional 50 percent tariff on Chinese imports.
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Associated Press
April 9 ๐
Mr. Trump's punishing tariffs on some of America's biggest trading partners took effect. Chinese goods were subject to a 104 percent tariff, European goods faced a 20 percent import tax, Japanese goods were taxed 24 percent and Vietnamese products 46 percent.
China responded with an additional 50 percent tariff on U.S. goods, meaning they faced an additional 84 percent import tax. China's new tariffs took effect 12 hours after Mr. Trump's tariffs went into place. Read more โบ
The European Union also approved new tariffs against the United States, to take effect the following week. Read more โบ
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transcript Trump Pauses 'Reciprocal' Tariffs for Most Countries President Trump decided to pause his 'reciprocal' tariffs on most countries, excluding China, just hours after they went into effect.
'Hello, everybody.' [clapping] 'Can you walk us through your thinking about why you decided to put a 90-day pause.' 'Well, I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line. They were getting yippy, you know. They were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid.' 'Well, I'm not calling it a trade war, but I am saying that China has escalated, and President Trump responded very courageously to that. And we are going to work on a solution with our trading partners. You might even say that he goaded China into a bad position. They responded โ they have shown themselves to the world to be the bad actors. And we are willing to cooperate with our allies and with our trading partners who did not retaliate. It wasn't a hard message. Don't retaliate. Things will turn out well.' [unclear] 'I'll take a look at this. As time goes by, we're going to take a look at it. There are some that have been hard. There are some that, by the nature of the company, get hit a little bit harder. And we'll take a look at that.' [unclear] 'Just instinctively, more than anything else. I mean, you almost can't take a pencil to paper. It's really more of an instinct, I think, than anything else.'
President Trump decided to pause his 'reciprocal' tariffs on most countries, excluding China, just hours after they went into effect.
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Eric Lee/The New York Times
โฆ later on April 9 ๐
In an abrupt reversal, Mr. Trump said he would back down on his reciprocal tariffs for the next 90 days, bringing tariff levels to a universal 10 percent.
China would not be included in that pause, he said. Instead, he raised tariffs on its exports to 125 percent after Beijing announced a new round of retaliation.
April 10 ๐จ๐ณ๐ช๐บ
The White House clarified that the 125 percent tariff on Chinese goods was in addition to a 20 percent tariff that Mr. Trump had already imposed on China, bringing the total tariffs on China imposed by the Trump administration to 145 percent.
The European Union announced a plan to pause its own reciprocal tariffs in response to Mr. Trump's reversal. Read more โบ
April 11 ๐
Mr. Trump issued a ruling that spared many electronics โ including smartphones, computers, semiconductors and routes and modems โ from some new tariffs. The long list of imports, which include Chinese products, would be exempt from reciprocal tariffs, but other levies would still apply. Read more โบ
April 13 ๐
The electronics exceptions announced on April 11 were recast as temporary by Mr. Trump and his top aides. Mr. Trump said he would be pursuing new tariffs on computer chips. Read more โบ
April 29 ๐
Mr. Trump signed two executive orders that reversed course on some tariffs for carmakers. The 25 percent tariffs were modified so they would not be 'stacked' with other tariffs such as those on steel and aluminum, a White House official said. Read more โบ
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transcript U.S. and British Leaders Celebrate Agreement on Trade Framework President Trump and Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced an agreement for a trade framework over speakerphone.
'With this deal, the U.K. joins the United States in affirming that reciprocity and fairness is an essential and vital principle of international trade. We really do, we have a great relationship. I want to just say that the representatives of U.K. have been so professional, and it's been an honor doing business with all of them, and in particular the prime minister. And I'd like to introduce him now to say a few words. Mr. Prime Minister, please take it away.' 'Thank you, Mr. President โ Donald โ and this is a really fantastic historic day in which we can announce this deal between our two great countries. And I think it's a real tribute to the history that we have of working so closely together.'
President Trump and Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced an agreement for a trade framework over speakerphone.
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Eric Lee/The New York Times
May 8 ๐ฌ๐ง
The United States and Britain reached a deal that would reduce tariffs on some imports. Under the agreement, Britain would drop its tariffs on some U.S. products and the United States would pare back tariffs on cars and steel, while keeping a 10 percent levy in place for all British exports. But the deal has not been finalized, and there could be weeks of negotiations to come. Read more โบ
May 12 ๐จ๐ณ
The White House agreed to back off, for now, from its steepest tariffs against China. Under the agreement, the United States would cut tariffs on Chinese imports to 30 percent from 145 percent, and China would reduce its levies on American goods to 10 percent from 125 percent. Read more โบ
May 23 ๐ช๐บ
In a post on social media, Mr. Trump threatened higher tariffs on the European Union, saying that discussions 'are going nowhere.' He recommended a 50 percent tariff on European imports that would begin June 1. Read more โบ
May 25 ๐ช๐บ
After a phone call with Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, Mr. Trump said he would delay imposing his threatened 50 percent tariffs on all imports from the European Union until July 9 to allow more time for trade negotiations. Read more โบ
May 30 ๐
Speaking to steelworkers near Pittsburgh, Mr. Trump pledged to double tariffs on steel to 50 percent, from 25 percent. He also endorsed a 'planned partnership' between U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel before conceding that he had not seen or signed off on the details of the deal. Read more โบ
June 4 ๐
Tariffs on steel and aluminum imports rose to 50 percent from 25 percent just after midnight. The White House said the increase would address 'trade practices that undermine national security.' Read more โบ
June 16 ๐ฌ๐ง
The United States and Britain finalized their trade agreement to lower tariffs on British cars, steel and aluminum, and aerospace equipment. Read more โบ
June 27 ๐จ๐ณ
China confirmed the details of a trade framework with the Trump administration a day after Mr. Trump said his administration had 'signed' a deal with China. The deal, China's Ministry of Commerce said, would loosen exports of rare earth minerals to the United States and lift some restrictions on U.S. goods to China. Read more โบ
July 2 ๐ป๐ณ
The United States agreed to a trade deal with Vietnam that would indirectly affect China, an important trading partner of Vietnam. The provision, Mr. Trump said, would impose a 20 percent tariff on all imports and a 40 percent tariff on any 'transshipping.' Read more โบ
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transcript Trump Says Countries Will Receive Letters About New Tariffs Speaking to the press after arriving at Joint Base Andrews, President Trump said the tariffs would range from 10 to 70 percent. 'It's a lot of money, but we're giving them a bargain,' Mr. Trump said.
Reporter: 'For countries that don't get a letter right away and that you haven't made a deal โ' 'No, we're going to start sending letters out to various countries starting tomorrow. We'll probably have 10 or 12 go out tomorrow and over the next few days, I think by the 9th they'll be fully covered and they'll range in value from maybe 60 or 70 percent tariffs to 10 and 20 percent tariffs.' And it's very important. It's a lot of money for the country. But we're giving them a bargain. Because if I went by the true deficits or by other ways of measuring, it could be a lot more. We don't want to, I don't want to stretch it too much. We want to keep it pretty reasonable. And I think it's actually I think it's very reasonable.'
Speaking to the press after arriving at Joint Base Andrews, President Trump said the tariffs would range from 10 to 70 percent. 'It's a lot of money, but we're giving them a bargain,' Mr. Trump said.
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Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times
July 9 ๐
Mr. Trump informed at least 21 countries that their exports will face tariffs of at least 20 percent starting Aug. 1 unless they reach new trade deals with the United States. He threatened to raise rates further if countries tried to evade the U.S. duties or retaliated with their own import taxes. Read more โบ
He also issued a 50 percent tariff on copper, effective Aug. 1. The move sent U.S. copper prices surging, and has caused concern in some of the industries Mr. Trump has said he wants to protect. Read more โบ
Mr. Trump also said he planned to impose a 50 percent tariff on all Brazilian imports. President Luiz Inรกcio Lula da Silva of Brazil promised to reciprocate. Read more โบ
July 11 ๐ช๐บ๐ฒ๐ฝ
Months of careful negotiations were upended when Mr. Trump said he would place a 30 percent tariff on goods from the European Union and Mexico. The tariffs would take effect on Aug. 1, he said in two letters posted on social media. He threatened to raise those rates even higher should the E.U. or Mexico issue retaliatory tariffs. Read more โบ
July 14 ๐ช๐บ
Maros Sefcovic, the European Union's key negotiator, said that Mr. Trump's about-face on tariffs was disappointing given he felt that the two sides were 'very close to an agreement.' Mr. Sefcovic spoke with his American counterparts almost every day last week, he said, and Mr. Trump's letter created 'a whole different dynamic.' Read more โบ
President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico said her country is hoping to reach an agreement with the United States before Aug. 1. 'We do our part; they have to do their part as well,' she said. Read more โบ
July 16 ๐ฎ๐ฉ
Indonesia agreed to roll back multiple trade barriers to reach an agreement with the United States. U.S. exports to Indonesia would not be charged tariffs, and Indonesian goods would face a 19 percent tariff in the United States.
'We understand their interests, and they understand ours,' President Prabowo Subianto of Indonesia said. Read more โบ
July 22 ๐ฏ๐ต
In a social media post, Mr. Trump said he had reached a trade deal with Japan, calling it 'perhaps the largest deal ever made.' The Japanese government agreed to invest $550 billion in the United States, with the U.S. government receiving 90 percent of the profits. Japanese exports to the country would be charged a 15 percent tariff, instead the 25 percent tariff threatened by Mr. Trump. Read more โบ
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transcript U.S. and Europe Reach Preliminary Trade Deal With 15% Tariffs The deal, which would set a 15 percent tariff on most E.U. goods, averted what could have become a painful trade war with the United States' biggest source of imports.
'We are agreeing that the tariff straight across for automobiles and everything else will be a straight-across tariff of 15 percent.' 'Indeed, basically, the European market is open. It's 450 million people. So, it's a good deal. It's a huge deal. It was tough negotiations. I knew it at the beginning and it was indeed very tough. But we came to a good conclusion for both sides.' 'I think it's great that we made a deal today instead of playing games and maybe not making a deal at all. I think it's a โ I'm going to let you say, but I think it's the biggest deal ever made. Thank you very much. Congratulations.' [clapping]
The deal, which would set a 15 percent tariff on most E.U. goods, averted what could have become a painful trade war with the United States' biggest source of imports.
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Tierney L. Cross/The New York Times
July 27 ๐ช๐บ
The United States and the European Union reached a trade deal that set a 15 percent base tariff on most E.U. exports, including cars. Mr. Trump said that the European Union had agreed to increase its investment in the United States by more than $600 billion and to purchase $750 billion of American energy.
The sides also agreed to drop tariffs to zero on some goods, including aircraft, certain chemicals and generic drugs, and some agricultural products, said Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, the bloc's executive arm.
The agreement will 'rebalance, but enable trade on both sides,' she said. Read more โบ
July 30 ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ง๐ท๐ฐ๐ท๐น๐ญ๐ฐ๐ญ
Mr. Trump announced that imports from India to the United States would be subjected to a 25 percent tariff as of Aug. 1, and he berated India over trade barriers and its purchases of energy and military equipment from Russia. Read more โบ
The United States also applied tariffs of 50 percent on Brazilian goods two days ahead of schedule and issued sanctions on the Brazilian judge who is overseeing the criminal case against former President Jair Bolsonaro, an ally of Mr. Trump. Read more โบ
At the end of the day, Mr. Trump announced a trade deal with South Korea that placed 15 percent tariffs on South Korean goods. As part of the agreement, South Korea committed to investing $350 billion in the United States and will spend $100 billion on liqufieid natural gas. More announcements will be made when South Korea's president, Lee Jae Myung, visits Washington in two weeks, Mr. Trump said. Read more โบ
Thailand and Cambodia also reached trade agreements with the United States, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Wednesday night. He declined to elaborate on details of the new tariff rates. Both nations had been facing a potential tariff rate of 36 percent. Read more โบ
July 31 ๐ฒ๐ฝ
Mexico was granted a 90 day extension to try and reach a trade deal, Mr. Trump said after having a phone call with President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico. The agreement came on the eve of Mr. Trump's Aug. 1 tariff deadline. Read more โบ
โฆ later on July 31 ๐
The White House issued a long list of new tariffs hours before the Aug. 1 trade deadline. Switzerland will face a 39 percent tariff, while Syria, Laos and Myanmar will face rates of up to 41 percent. Read more โบ
The new tariffs apply to dozens of nations and will take effect on Aug. 7. Most of those nations will face tariffs between 15 and 50 percent. Read more โบ
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Trump's tariff war: Canada's sovereignty is the real issue, trade expert warns
U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war with Canada is ultimately about America's neighbour to the north giving up some of its sovereignty to the United States, according to a trade expert from accounting and consulting giant Pricewaterhousecoopers (PwC). The United States has imposed levies on Canadian steel, aluminum, copper, and certain automotive products. Last week, Trump hit Canada with a 35 per cent tariff on all goods not covered by the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), which he signed during his first presidency in 2018. That's up from 25 per cent last month. Canada's central bank estimates 95 per cent of non-energy exports are compliant with CUSMA, which is due for renegotiation next year. On Sunday, Dominic LeBlanc, Canada's minister responsible for Canada-U.S. trade, said Prime Minister Mark Carney and Trump are set to speak in the coming days. Michael Dobner, PwC's Canadian national leader of economics and policy practice, warns Trump's now well-worn claim that Canada should become 'the 51st state' is far more than negotiation table bluster. 'There is no real trade issue,' he told Yahoo Finance Canada on Tuesday. 'It's clear [Trump] is not willing to do a deal with Canada, and I think the reason for that is his aspirations regarding Canada are not the same as the EU and Japan.' We haven't really had a lot of luck with Canada. I think Canada could be one where they'll just pay tariffs. It's not really a negotiation.U.S. President Donald Trump speaking to reporters at the White House on July 25 According to Yale University's Budget Lab, 'Canada has borne the brunt of the damage from U.S. tariffs so far,' with its long-run economy 2.1 per cent smaller since the start of 2025, by its analysis. Statistics Canada's June trade figures show Canadian exporters did more business with the United States last month, even as tariffs increased. The federal agency says Canada's trade surplus with the U.S. grew to $3.9 billion in June, from $3.5 billion in May. In June of 2024, that figure was $8.4 billion. RBC assistant chief economist Nathan Janzen expects plunging export volumes to 'substantially subtract' from Canada's gross domestic product growth when second-quarter figures are released later in August. Meanwhile, Trump has repeatedly offered to convert Canada from a sovereign nation to 'the 51st state' during his second term as U.S. president. The move would enhance America's access to critical minerals largely controlled by China, and pave the way for U.S. access to new ocean shipping lanes in Canada's Arctic being created by melting sea ice. 'Full alignment' Dobner sees this as the crux of Trump's vision for future U.S.-Canada relations. He says this includes 'full alignment' on issues involving the economy and defence. 'We will stay Canada. You can look at the EU as a potential model here,' Dobner said. 'That means that Canada would, in this kind of arrangement, lose some of its independence in one way or another.' 'That's the big issue, not trade,' he added. With the clock ticking down to CUSMA's expiration, Dobner says PwC's business clients are scrambling to certify products under the agreement. At the same time, he says prolonged uncertainty between Canada and its largest trading partner has 'frozen' capital spending. Linda Hasenfratz, CEO of Guelph, Ont.-based autoparts manufacturer Linamar ( is on the front lines of the Canada-U.S. trade war. In a recent interview with Yahoo Finance Canada, she said if the U.S. were to apply tariffs to CUSMA-compliant autoparts, it would 'bring the industry to its knees,' as many of these items cross the border multiple times before installation in a finished vehicle. 'The Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement has thus far been key to Canada's perceived safety net,' CIBC Capital Markets chief economist Avery Shenfeld wrote in a report last week. 'Canada's edge tied to the USMCA carve-out is also only as durable as the USMCA itself, and it has to be extended by all parties or it expires in 2026. That cloud of uncertainty will hang over capital spending plans in a broad range of Canadian export sectors.' 'Whether any of this lasts will depend on Trump's word,' Shenfeld added. 'We've seen how shaky that foundation can be.' Dobner ultimately sees two paths for Canada: One, suffer the wrath of the Trump administration without a deal in place in the hopes that his successor will favour free trade, while businesses attempt to diversify their customer base. 'The other option is to get to some kind of economic union that is not a full annexation, so to speak, by the United States,' he said. 'Is it possible? Yes, I think it is. It depends how big the hardships that the U.S. administration is willing to put on Canada to push it towards that.' Jeff Lagerquist is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on X @jefflagerquist. Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for Apple and Android. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data