The rumours were true: China's greenhouse gas emissions are falling
It began last year with some optimistic projections. Climate scientists studying emissions data from China detected a positive signal.
There were signs that the world's single largest climate polluter might have halted the growth of its greenhouse emissions. Perhaps it had even begun to drive them down.
If this was true, it was a remarkable achievement. China had not been expected to meet this goal until 2030.
This is a sign of hope, says Laurie Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and senior fellow at Asia Society Policy Institute.
Myllyvirta detected the trend in 2023 and reported it in an analysis for Carbon Brief, a British publication specialising in climate change science and policy.
But the data back then was not yet clear. China's emissions may have peaked, or may have been about to.
Now the evidence is in.
China's emissions were down 1.6 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 and by 1 per cent in the latest 12 months, according to Myllyvirta's analysis of new economic and climate data.
China's rapid deployment of electricity supply from new wind and solar infrastructure as well as hydro and nuclear, alongside its efforts to electrify its economy – particularly through the rapid roll-out of electric vehicles – has displaced coal and oil use and thereby cut emissions.
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