Thailand expects tariff deal before deadline
Poj Aramwattananont also predicts the country will obtain more favourable tariff rates than those negotiated by Vietnam because the US has a larger trade deficit with Vietnam.
President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced the US had reached an agreement with Vietnam, charging a 20% tariff on imports of Vietnamese products and a 40% tariff on transshipments.
Although this week's negotiations in Washington are the first official round between Thailand and the US, officials have held several online discussions to pave the way for talks.
Consequently, Mr Poj expects Thailand will reach an agreement with the US by July 9. If not, Thailand could face a 36% tariff rate, unless Washington has a change of heart or agrees to extend the negotiations.
Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira was meeting on Thursday morning in Washington with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, with results from those discussions expected on Friday.
'Vietnam's agreement serves as a benchmark, setting a 40% tariff on goods that transit through Vietnam to the US. We have to see the details of this agreement, including the local content ratio in those products,' said Mr Poj.
He said trade circumvention issues in Thailand can be resolved more easily than in Vietnam, which shares a border with China.
Mr Poj said Thailand's proposals are not bad, but it remains unclear whether the US has any further demands.
Aat Pisanwanich, an adviser on Asean affairs at Intelligence Research Consultant, said Vietnam's deal indicated trade circumvention through Thailand could also face a 40% tariff rate from the US. This would affect Chinese goods such as solar cells, electric motorcycles, batteries and electronic parts.
He said Thailand may face a tariff rate similar to Vietnam, or it could be lower due to Vietnam's larger trade surplus with the US, which exceeds US$100 billion, compared to $45 billion for Thailand.
Mr Aat predicted Thailand might face a tariff of less than 20%.
There is a high possibility that the US will impose a tariff between 15% and 20% on Thai products. Should this occur, Thailand's trade surplus with the US would decrease to approximately $25 billion, based on the value of Thai exports to the US of around $60 billion last year.
Thai exports to the US are forecast to decrease by $20 billion to about $40 billion this year, he said.
'Based on Vietnam's deal, Thailand's total exports are projected to grow by 6-7%. In the first half of the year, Thai exports jumped 14%,' said Mr Aat.
He said there are growing concerns about Thailand's potential opening market for US goods at a 0% tariff. Goods of most concern include livestock products such as beef and pork.
Mr Aat said such a move could jeopardise numerous local farmers and businesses. However, for other agricultural products, such as soybeans and maize, the impact is less alarming because Thailand already relies heavily on imports of these products.
Vuttikrai Leewiraphan, permanent secretary for the Ministry of Commerce, said that in addition to the submitted proposal, Finance Minister Pichai presented additional proposals in the discussions with the US this week.
'The US will decide on the tariff rates and we expect some clarity following the meeting on July 3,' he said.
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