Is Mercer International Inc. (MERC) the Best Canadian Penny Stock to Invest in Now?
We define penny stocks as shares trading under $5.00, which usually fall into the small cap category. As illustrated by the performance of thematic ETFs, the small cap factor, which performed well historically, fell out of favor sometime in the mid-2010s and has kept underperforming ever since. The 2023-2024 period brought even stronger underperformance of penny stocks, as the proliferation of the AI trend created disproportionate opportunities across the market, favoring only a handful of large capitalization big tech names. This was an important factor in explaining the difference in cross-country stock market returns as well – for example, the Canadian stock market has largely moved in sync or even occasionally outperformed the US market during the first decade of the century, until a noticeable decoupling took place in the early 2010s. Besides lagging on productivity improvement and different monetary policies, the size factor clearly played a role, as Canada lacks big tech players to capitalize on the rapid technological advancements that took place during the 2010s.
READ ALSO: 10 Best Canadian Stocks to Buy According to Billionaires
As a result, both the Canadian and small-size factors have found themselves at multi-year lows relative to the US stock market at the end of calendar 2024. While many investors make reactive decisions and avoid stocks with historical underperformance, the smart way to make money is to often take contrarian bets based on forward-looking signals that may suggest a reversal in the previous tendencies. The main questions to answer in this article are the following: will the small cap factor and Canada stocks become favored again and able to outperform their large cap and US counterparts?
When discussing the small factor, we get to see that its recent 2023-2024 underperformance was accelerated by rising stock market concentration to record levels. External data suggests that the 2024 US stock market concentration, as measured by the share of the top 10 largest companies in the total market, was at a record 38%, significantly above the historical average of around 24%. This means that most of the stock market returns were driven by a handful of companies favored by AI-related FOMO which overstretched their market valuations. In a scenario where large caps perform well, the small caps fall out of favor automatically, by setup.
History shows, however, that concentration tends to revert to the mean – this is already happening in 2025 as the Magnificent 7 ETF, which includes the largest big tech stocks, has significantly underperformed the broad market, decreasing its concentration. Furthermore, the small cap factor tends to perform well when the economy is growing, interest rates are low and capital moves freely to riskier assets – while we aren't there yet, the stock market is a forward-looking animal that tends to anticipate economic developments 6-12 months ahead. We believe small caps and particularly penny stocks may start performing well in anticipation of lower interest rates and better economic conditions in 2026 and beyond, past the current tariff turmoil and other uncertainties induced by rapid policy changes brought by the new US administration.
There are reasons to expect an improvement in the performance of Canadian stocks relative to the US market. First, the Trump Tariff Turmoil has much worse potential implications for the US than it does for Canada – the US has put its entire export/import base at risk of retaliation, while Canada only risks tariffs for its US exports (and likely at a lower overall tariff rate). Second, the breaking of economic and ideological ties with the new US administration could lead to an overall mobilization of the Canadian people and political class, and drive several positive developments: (1) substitution of US consumer brands with local Canadian brands; (2) accelerating investments into the mining/energy infrastructure and pipelines to create alternative paths and markets for the main Canadian product, which is commodities. Both (1) and (2) would have positive implications for the entire Canadian stock market and economy.
The main takeaway for readers is that combining the small size factor with the Canadian factor could lead to substantial outperformance relative to the US market which witnesses heightened uncertainty and negative returns year-to-date. In such a scenario, Canadian penny stocks appear the ideal securities to pick for a bet on both factors, which would be contrarian to the trends we witnessed in the last 10 years.
To compile our list of best Canadian penny stocks we use a stock screener to filter for Canadian companies trading in the US with a stock price below $5.00. Then we compared the list with our proprietary Q4 2024 database of hedge funds' ownership and included in the article the top 13 stocks with the largest number of hedge funds owning the stock, ranked in ascending order.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter's strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points ().
A panoramic view of a forest filled with trees used to make NBSK pulp, wood chips, and saw logs.
Mercer International Inc. (NASDAQ:MERC) is a forest products company producing market pulp, solid wood products, and bio-based materials in its fields located across Canada, the US, and Germany. The company's strength consists of vertical integration and large-scale operations, featuring a combined annual capacity of more than 2 million tons. The solid wood segment produces lumber, cross-laminated timber pallets, and biofuels. MERC ranked seventh on our recent list of 10 Best Paper Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds.
Mercer International Inc. (NASDAQ:MERC) reported a significant improvement in Q4 2024 with operating EBITDA of $99 million compared to Q3's $50 million, driven by no planned maintenance downtime, a strong dollar, and higher sales volumes. For the full 2024 fiscal year, EBITDA increased substantially to $244 million from $17 million in 2023, attributed to stronger pulp markets, lower production costs from easing inflation pressures, and cost reduction initiatives. The company successfully redeemed $300 million of 2026 senior notes using $200 million of additional 2028 senior notes and $100 million cash, marking a first step in its leverage reduction initiative.
Looking ahead, Mercer International Inc. (NASDAQ:MERC) expects softwood pulp pricing to remain strong due to reduced supply and steady demand, while the significant price differential between softwood and hardwood pulp is expected to persist well into 2025. The company faces potential challenges from tariff uncertainties but believes it can mitigate the majority of impacts through operational flexibility and sales strategies. Management's absolute priority for 2025 will focus on reducing leverage through strategic projects, including aggressive cost reduction programs, reliability improvements, operational rationalization, and prudent capital management. The long-term visibility and optimistic guidance reinforce our belief that MERC is one of the best penny stocks to buy.
Overall, MERC ranks 7th on our list of best Canadian penny stocks to invest in now. While we acknowledge the potential of MERC to grow, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. There is an AI stock that went up since the beginning of 2025, while popular AI stocks lost around 25%. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than MERC but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
READ NEXT: 20 Best AI Stocks To Buy Now and 30 Best Stocks to Buy Now According to Billionaires.
Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
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