Question over George Cottrell and Nigel Farage campaign
Cottrell served eight months after a plea agreement that reduced his possible prison sentence from a maximum of 20 years, according to court documents at the time.
He has been seen at Farage's side on the campaign trail over the last week, including the day the Reform UK leader was hit by a milkshake thrown by a member of the public.
Many thanks,
Andrew Nutt,
Bargoed
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The Independent
35 minutes ago
- The Independent
New polling shows Reform is winning over Britain's Christians
When we look at how people vote in elections and why they choose certain parties, analysis often focuses on age, education, location or socioeconomic status. Less discussed in Britain is religion. But close to two-thirds of its adults are still religious – expressing either a religious identity, holding religious beliefs, or taking part in religious activities. For the one-in-three adults in Britain who are Christian, this identity remains an important influence on their political behaviour. New polling, published here for the first time, shows how Reform UK is disrupting our previous understanding of how Christians vote in British elections. The relationship between Britain's Christian communities and the major political parties goes back centuries. The Conservative party has been very close to English Anglicanism since its emergence in the mid-19th century. Catholics and free-church Protestants (such as Baptists and Methodists) have tended towards the Labour and Liberal/Liberal Democrat parties. Even as Britain has become more secular, these relationships have persisted. Anglicans, for example, have tended to vote Conservative even when the party was in dire straits. In the 2024 election, 39% of Anglicans voted Tory even as the party's national vote share fell to 24%. Since the 1980s and particularly in elections since 2015, however, we have started to see changes to the Christian vote. The traditional Catholic attachment to Labour has deteriorated, as has Labour's appeal to other Christian communities such as Baptists, Methodists and Presbyterians. Instead, driven by the rising salience of social values (attitudes towards immigration, social change and national identity) as a determinant of political support, the socially conservative leanings of some Christians of all stripes has led to increased support for the Conservatives. And those who traditionally did so – the Anglicans – have become even more supportive. The result has been a steady coalescing of the Christian vote behind the Conservatives. But now, new polling by YouGov (on June 23-24 2025) for the University of Exeter reveals that this realignment is being disrupted by the growing popularity of Reform UK. Instead of asking who people would vote for tomorrow, a nationally representative sample of 2,284 adults was asked how likely they were to ever vote for each major party, on a scale from zero (very unlikely) to ten (very likely). While not the same as a direct question about how someone would vote in an election, the likelihood question provides a much richer measure of the strength of their support for all of the major parties. Among Anglicans, Labour remains deeply unpopular: over half gave the party a 0. In contrast, the Conservatives still enjoy strong support among Anglicans, with 35% giving them a vote likelihood of seven or higher – the kind of support associated with voting for the party in an election. Reform, however, has caught up. Despite only 15% of Anglicans voting Reform in 2024, 38% now rate their likelihood of voting for the party as high. That's the same as the proportion who are strongly opposed to Reform – showing that while the party polarises Anglicans more than the Conservatives, Reform could win as much Anglican support as the Tories in an election. Catholics show a similar trend. Labour's traditional support is eroding: 40% of Catholics said they had zero likelihood of voting Labour, while 29% are strong supporters. As with Conservatives for the Anglican vote, Reform is almost level-pegging with Labour for the Catholic vote at 28%. It has even supplanted the Conservatives, of whom 22% of Catholics are strong supporters. It is not yet clear why this is happening. The distinction of Christian (and non-Christian) voting patterns is not an artefact of age – there are many studies that prove this is the case. It may be that Reform's stances on issues such as immigration resonate with Christians' concerns to the extent that they are willing to set aside their historic party loyalties. Or it may be that Christians are as prone as other British voters to turn to Reform out of frustration with the performances of Labour and the Conservatives in office. Swing voters and party competition This data also shows the extent to which voters' support for parties overlaps or is exclusive. In other words, which voters have a high vote likelihood for only one party (and so are likely committed to backing that party in an election), which do not have such high likelihoods for any party (and so will probably not vote at all), and which have similarly high likelihoods for more than one party (effectively swing voters, persuadable one way or the other). Among the religiously unaffiliated, 29% aren't strong supporters of any party. For Catholics, it's 26%. Anglicans are more politically anchored, however, with only 20% in this category. While traditionally, we would have expected this to reflect Anglicans' greater tendency to support the Tories, only 17% of Anglicans are strong supporters of only that party, compared with 21% who are firmly behind Reform. These aren't swing voters; they've switched sides. A further 12% of Anglicans have high vote likelihoods for both the Tories and Reform. These are swing voters that the two parties could realistically expect to win over. Catholics are even more fragmented. Only 13% are strong supporters of Labour alone, along with 12% and 17% who are strong supporters of the Conservatives and Reform alone, respectively. Few Catholics are torn between Labour and the other parties, but 5% are swing voters between the Conservatives and Reform: the Tories' gradual winning over of Catholics over the last 50 years is also being challenged by the appeal of Reform. The party has provided a socially conservative alternative to the Conservatives, with the result that the Christian vote has become more fragmented. The Tories are no longer the main beneficiaries of Labour's loss of its traditional Catholic vote. In addition, Reform is as popular as the Conservatives among Anglicans, and as popular as Labour among Catholics. This suggests it is appealing across the traditional denominational divide more successfully than either of the major parties. If there is to be a single party that attracts the bulk of Britain's Christian support, at this point it is far more likely to be Reform than anyone else.
The National
an hour ago
- The National
TikToker hits 3m views praising National's Trump front page
TikTok user Hal_for_NY said Friday's splash, timed to coincide with the president's arrival in Scotland for the opening of a new golf course and meetings with Keir Starmer and European Commission president Ursula von der Layen, was 'amazing'. The clip has been viewed 3.1 million times and racked up more than 549,000 comments since it was posted on Friday. In the clip, the social media user said: 'Donald Trump is being welcomed to Scotland as a felon and not as a president as his trip is already off to a bad start. "Now, if you didn't know, today Donald Trump is headed to Scotland where he's expected to visit both of his golf courses and celebrate the grand opening of a new golf course, but in preparation for his arrival, Scottish newspaper The National released their front page and it is amazing. Take a look at this: 'Convicted US felon to arrive in Scotland'. 'Yeah, not president of the United States. Heck, they even call him 'Republican leader' instead of president. That is how he's going to be welcomed. On top of that, there are protests at both of his golf courses for his arrival.' The social media user goes on to speculate that Trump would have hoped the trip could have provided a 'distraction' to his domestic woes, as his Maga fanbase turn sour on the president over his refusal to release the so-called Epstein files. The results of historic investigations into paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein, a former friend of Trump, are potentially explosive and reportedly name him but much of the material remains classified. (Image: Anna Moneymaker, Getty Images) Trump had said during his election campaign he would be open to releasing more – but has since walked this back, saying the case is closed. He also appeared to have been angered by a recent South Park episode which depicted him as literally getting into bed with Satan and having a tiny penis. The social media user added: 'Donald Trump thought he could get away and have a bit of a distraction. He's got so much going on here between the [Epstein] files that he's not releasing, the South Park episode. (Image: Greg Lovett/Palm Beach Post/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images) 'He's not having exactly the time he wants here, so he thought maybe in Scotland he can get away from this and get a distraction. Instead, he's getting the welcome that he so richly deserves. Well done.' It also featured in a video from the popular MeidasTouch YouTube channel which has received 1.6m views. The front page has spread like wildfire in Scotland, the UK and US, with anti-Trump Americans expressing their joy on social media at seeing the president exposed in the media.
Scotsman
an hour ago
- Scotsman
In pictures: President Trump plays golf at his Turnberry course in Scotland
President Trump has been hitting the golf course this weekend during his visit to Scotland. Mr Trump arrived in the country on Friday evening and headed straight to his course at Turnberry, He is due to travel to his second course in Aberdeen on Monday. During his four-day visit he will be meeting with Prime Minister Keir Starmer and First Minister John Swinney. Saturday saw protests across Scotland in response to the visit. Here are nine images of the President, and some supporters, at Turnberry. Don't miss a moment, sign up to our free, daily newsletter right here. 1 . Golf US President Donald Trump plays golf at his Trump Turnberry golf course in South Ayrshire | Jane Barlow/PA Wire Photo Sales 2 . President Trump Turnberry has been owned by President Trump since 2014. | PA Photo Sales 3 . Protesters Anti-Starmer protesters appear at the golf course. | John Devlin / The Scotsman Photo Sales 4 . Flags A supporter waves an American flag. | John Devlin / The Scotsman Photo Sales
