CEO Confidence Drops As Economic Uncertainty Looms
Consumers aren't the only ones losing confidence in the economy. CEOs' feelings about the current economic situation are also heading downward. Executive coaching firm Vistage tracks quarterly CEO sentiment, and their most recent Q1 report shows a steep drop in CEO sentiment from 100.8 in Q4 2024 to 78.5 in Q1 2024.
This is a sharp drop, but Vistage Chief Research Officer Joe Galvin and Lauren Saidel-Baker, a CFA and economist with ITR Economics explain in a press release and video that it shouldn't be looked at in isolation. CEO confidence had been at similar levels throughout 2023 and 2024, and was increasing at a more steady pace. Confidence spiked in Q4 of last year on business leaders' anticipation of what then-recently re-elected President Donald Trump would do in office to ease operations for businesses and improve the economy, including cutting tax and easing regulations. Since he's come to office, other policies such as tariffs, immigrant deportation and cracking down on diversity initiatives have shown themselves as bigger priorities.
'I don't think this means CEOs are giving up on this growth cycle,' Saidel-Baker said. 'There is still growth ahead, but again, it's going to bring some uncertainties—some opportunities—and some risks they have to account for.'
Still, the responses don't show a lot of optimism. More than two out of five said overall economic conditions have gotten worse compared with a year ago. And 42% say they anticipate the overall economic conditions will be worse a year from now. More than two-thirds said that Trump's trade and tariffs policy will negatively impact their business—and it's important to note this survey was done between March 3-17, before Trump announced his sweeping tariffs and formally kicked off the trade war with China. Just over half said they expect to increase their prices in the next three months. Almost 80% are hiking them by 4% or more, with 13% planning an increase of more than 10%.
How to move forward in the economy right now is one of many challenges companies face. Another has to do with AI and automation: What's the right amount to add, and how will it impact employees? I talked to Omar Asali, CEO of packaging company Ranpak, about the automation he's added and how it's actually expanded his workforce. An excerpt from our conversation is later in this newsletter.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Economic Club of Chicago last week.
Last week ended quietly on Wall Street, but only because markets were closed for Good Friday. Monday morning, the major indexes were all down on the lack of international negotiations to reduce tariffs, lowered revenue expectations for tech companies with major business in China, and Trump's constant attacks on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Last Wednesday, Powell told the Economic Club of Chicago that tariffs would likely increase inflation, putting the Fed in the challenging situation of trying to balance a stable labor market, price increases and sensible interest rates. He said the Fed won't make any quick policy changes in the current unstable economic environment, saying that for now, 'we are well positioned to wait for greater clarity.' Trump responded Thursday with a post Truth Social saying Powell's 'termination cannot come fast enough!'
It's unclear whether the president actually has the authority to fire Powell, whose term as Fed chair expires next May, though reports indicate he's discussed the possibility with advisers, including former Fed governor Kevin Warsh. Many have reportedly counseled Trump against making such a move, telling him it would upend financial markets.
And though April has seen wide-ranging economic uncertainty, retail and food service sales in March were unexpectedly high, according to U.S. Census Bureau figures released last week. Forbes senior contributor Pamela Danziger writes sales across all categories were up 4.6% last month, with big-ticket purchases seeing the largest increases: automobile dealers saw a 9.2% increase, and home furnishings were up 7.7%. Analysts say this could be attributable to consumers hoping to make last purchases before Trump's tariffs were enacted. The 'reciprocal' tariffs were announced on April 2 and at the time expected to take effect immediately. But Bankrate senior industry analyst Ted Rossman told Danziger that the numbers also show the resilience of the U.S. consumer: Bar and restaurant spending was also up 4.8% in March.
A United Airlines Airbus A319 taxis at Chicago International Airport.
In an unpredictable economic environment, making predictions is difficult. United Airlines has taken a different approach, filing two separate forecasts for investors with the Securities and Exchange Commission last week, writes Forbes' Suzanne Rowan Kelleher. 'The Company's outlook is dependent on the macro environment which the Company believes is impossible to predict this year with any degree of confidence,' the filing says. For the first forecast—if the U.S. economy remains weaker, but stable—its estimated EPS is in the range of $11.50 to $13.50. The second forecast—a recession—would bring a 5% decrease in total operating revenue, bringing estimated EPS down to $7 to $9.
The economic volatility has been bad for the airline industry, which has seen a lot of turbulence this year. Many consumers consider air travel discretionary spending and have pulled back on their plans. Kelleher reported bookings at major U.S. airlines dropped 6% in the days immediately following Trump's initial tariff announcement this month. Citing the uncertainty, earlier this month Delta Air Lines withdrew its financial guidance for the year, and Frontier cut its annual guidance.
getty
Corporate sustainability might not be making any headlines these days, but new research shows it's still a high priority. A study from Forbes Research shows two-thirds of C-suite leaders identified it as one of their top three issues, up from 22% three years ago. In fact, 28% say sustainability is their top priority. Nearly nine in 10 planned to increase sustainability budgets this year—with 0% decreasing—and 68% said their company's CEO owns sustainability strategy. Seven out of 10 execs said one of the top two drivers of these initiatives was investor expectations, while two-thirds said business outcomes were behind theirs. And while many companies are planning to expand their use of generative AI, many want to use the technology for sustainability purposes. Deploying analytics and AI for sustainability is the No. 1 initiative businesses plan for in the next year.
Geopolitical uncertainty and economic instability are the two top barriers to making progress on sustainability initiatives, the research found. The other big obstacle is one that existed before January: difficulty demonstrating ROI. Almost half say they need to track and prove that their investments are paying off, but only 12% said their companies regularly do that. However, executives said they're pushing forward: 72% are pacing to halve emissions by 2030, and 80% said they are on track to hit net zero by 2050. Three out of five also said they're confident their companies' efforts are positively impacting the environment, society and the economy.
Ranpak CEO Omar Asali.
In 2019, One Madison Group, the family investment office for longtime investment banker Omar Asali, bought packaging company Ranpak and took it public. Asali became Ranpak's CEO, and he's spent the last six years working to bring more smart automation and sustainable solutions to the industry. I talked to him about the ways he's brought technology to Ranpak's facilities and the surprising way it's impacted jobs. This conversation has been edited for length, clarity and continuity.
Ranpak has done a lot in the way of automation and bringing technology to the packaging space. Tell me about what you've done and why.
Asali: We are using automation to enhance efficiencies. That's what we're about. We have packaging equipment that reduces the amount of corrugated that you use, so if you're shipping a small item, [it] will detect the height of the item and will customize the height of the box to fit that perfectly and reduce the amount of void inside the box. It also reduces the [packaging material] that's inside the box. You're shipping less air and material.
We use our vision system to optimize the packing. Think of it as a volumetric vision system that will optimize packaging things in a way that reduces the amount of material that you need, and pack them in a way that is very streamlined and is efficient, but doesn't cause any product damage.
We also have a system that can provide our customers with data that can make them more efficient in terms of how they're shipping things, and provide them with quality control in terms of what actually has been shipped before it comes to your doorstep. A lot of our engine [is] around computer vision, around AI, to optimize what's happening.
We have robotic arms that can insert the pads, so it's helping reduce labor there. We have equipment that could provide automatic void filling. We have a number of areas where we have equipment that can help you utilize less labor in your packaging area, and have that labor focus elsewhere.
Recently, we partnered with a company that installs cameras at the manual packing stations. Through AI and through vision, it can help train your packers, optimize the sequencing of packing and shave a few seconds from the packing station works, so you are shipping more items.
What does all of that automation mean in terms of jobs? Are fewer workers needed now?
Other than coming up with solutions for my customers, the topic that I think about the most is impact on labor, back to how we think as a company, and how we want to be a positive influence. I'm a big believer that automation and robots are not going to be about replacing labor. They're going to be about adding to it. You'll need the human in the loop. We've had thousands of years of development and life and technology enhancing labor. In each case there may have been the need for upskilling and reskilling, but human beings were not sent home and asked to do nothing. I think this is going to be a continuation of that, where equipment is working in conjunction with humans to come up with better solutions for our customers. That's core to my philosophy and how we're investing. Maybe labor that was in a packing station may now go and do something different in a warehouse. Maybe they're doing more maintenance jobs and servicing of this equipment because this equipment requires a lot of attention.
There are jobs that are very physically demanding and difficult. We have partnered with a company that unloads the trailer when it comes to the dock. It's back-breaking work. Our robot can do that and be attached to the conveyor. We've talked to a number of people who do that job, and they literally thank us for automating and investing in robots that can help them.
If I look at the overall picture, when I got involved in Ranpak, we had 550 employees. We've been investing heavily in automation. Today we have about 900. We are automating part of [customers'] end-of-line and increasing their speed and their efficiency, more often than not, they end up with more labor, but doing different things. I don't think automation is going to be replacing jobs. I think it's going to be enhancing them.
Every company is dealing with the impact of the global trade war, which can impact supply chains, employees, product lines and customers. Here are five things you should do to understand what is happening, what you need to do to deal with it, and improve your business in the long run.
In uncertain economic times, companies often have to cut jobs. If you need to make layoffs, it's important to communicate clearly and directly with all employees—especially to rebuild confidence with those who remain. Here are six steps to take to effectively communicate about layoffs, and follow up with your employees.
This month, crosswalks in some West Coast cities were hacked so pedestrians who hit the button to get a 'Walk' sign heard the presumably AI-generated voice of a billionaire parodying the rich person's plight instead of the normal signal. Who wasn't included?
A. Elon Musk
B. Jeff Bezos
C. Mark Zuckerberg
D. Larry Ellison
See if you got it right here.
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