US-China tariff talks may provide clues on a possible Trump-Xi meeting

Boston Globe

4 days ago

Analysts say the talks could set the stage for a possible meeting between President
Other issues on the agenda include access of American businesses to the Chinese market; Chinese investment in the United States; components of fentanyl made in China that reach US consumers; Chinese purchases of Russian and Iranian oil; and American steps to limit exports of Western technology — like chips that help power artificial intelligence systems.
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The talks ended for the day after nearly five hours on Monday, and were set to reconvene on Tuesday morning.
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Wendy Cutler, a former US trade negotiator and now vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said that Trump's team would face challenges from 'a large and confident partner that is more than willing to retaliate against US interests.'
Rollover of tariff rates 'should be the easy part,' she said, warning that Beijing has learned lessons since the first Trump administration and 'will not buy into a one-sided deal this time around.'
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'Beijing is more prepared and will insist on movement on US tech export controls at a minimum — a difficult ask for Washington,' she said, adding that many conversations will take place in the lead-up to any Xi-Trump summit.
'Success is far from guaranteed,' Cutler said. 'There are numerous trip wires that can throw a wrench in this preparatory process.'
The US-China trade talks are the third this year, nearly four months after Trump upended global trade with his
The Stockholm meeting, following similar talks in Geneva and London, is set to extend a 90-day pause on those tariffs. During the hiatus, US tariffs have been lowered to 30 percent on Chinese goods, and China set a 10 percent tariff on US products.
The Trump administration, which just completed a
China's Commerce Ministry said last week that the 'consultations' would raise shared concerns through the principles of 'mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation.'
The talks with Beijing are part of a flurry of US trade negotiations set off by Trump's arm-twisting 'Liberation Day' tariffs against
Without an extension by Aug. 12, the tit-for-tat US-China tariffs could snap back to the triple-digit levels seen before the 90-day pause reached in Geneva. Many other countries — including some developing ones that depend on exports to the United States — face a deadline of Friday, as the Trump administration has said that letters will go out beforehand with set rates.
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Critics say Trump's tariffs penalize Americans by forcing US importers to shoulder the costs or pass them on to consumers through higher prices.
On Friday, Trump told reporters that 'we have the confines of a deal with China' — just two days after Bessent told MSNBC that a 'status quo' had been reached between the two sides.
While the Chinese side has offered little guidance about the specifics of its aims in Stockholm, Bessent has suggested that the situation has stabilized to the point that China and the United States can start looking toward longer-term balance between their economies.
For years, since China vaulted into the global trading system about two decades ago, the United States has sought to press leaders in Beijing to encourage more consumption in China and wrest greater market access to foreign-made — including American — goods.
Other sticking points in the relationship include overcapacity in China — by far the world's largest manufacturer — and concerns about whether Beijing is doing enough to control chemicals used to make fentanyl, analysts say.
In Stockholm, the Chinese will likely demand the removal of a
Experts say long-term progress in the US-China trade relationship will hinge on structural changes.
Those include increased manufacturing in the United States, which is part of Trump's ambition. On the Chinese side, that could involve a reduction of excess Chinese production in many industries, including electric vehicles and steel, and increased Chinese consumer spending to ease imbalances in China's export-driven economy.
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Sean Stein, president of the US-China Business Council, said the the talks in Stockholm offer an opportunity for the two governments to address structural reform issues. Businesses will watch for clues about a possible Trump-Xi summit, because any real deal will depend on a meeting between the pair, he said.
A deal is possible because 'a lot of the things that the US wants, the Chinese want as well,' Stein said.
China, for example, is interested in buying US soybeans, and aircraft and parts, and Chinese businesses are interested in investing in US manufacturing — which would help meet Trump's goal of reindustrialization.
Bessent has also said the Stockholm talks could address Chinese purchases of Russian and Iranian oil.