Economic Survey 2024-25: Pakistan misses growth target
Pakistan missed its GDP growth target of 3.6% in the outgoing fiscal year, posting a figure of 2.7%, revealed the Economic Survey 2024-25 unveiled by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, former CEO and president of one of the country's largest banks, on Monday.
Commenting on the global economy, Aurangzeb noted that the global GDP growth in 2023 stood at 3.5%, which was reduced to 3.3% in 2024 and is now projected to be 2.8% according to the latest estimates.
'GDP growth in 2023 stood at -0.2%, which grew to 2.5% in FY24. We announce a 2.7% GDP growth for FY25,' said Aurangzeb.
The finance minister termed it a gradual recovery. 'From my perspective, it is the right way to go in terms of sustainable growth,' he said.
The survey serves as a crucial document ahead of the annual federal budget, offering detailed insights into the country's socio-economic performance over the outgoing fiscal year.
The government will announce the budget for the financial year 2025-26 on Tuesday.
The earlier dates for the Economic Survey 2024-25 and budget announcement for FY26 were June 1 and June 2, respectively.
However, the government extended the dates to June 6 and June 7.
The National Economic Council (NEC) on Wednesday approved a gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 2.7% for the outgoing fiscal year and a projected growth rate of 4.2% for the next financial year.
The NEC was informed that Rs3.483 trillion was being spent on the annual national development, of which Rs1.100 trillion was the share of the federation and Rs2.383 trillion was the share of provinces.
The meeting was told that remittances increased by 30.9% from July 2024 to April 2025, and the current account balance remained positive for the first time.
The fiscal deficit in the fiscal year 2024-25 further decreased to 2.6% of the GDP, while the primary balance remained 3% of the GDP.
More to follow
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Business Recorder
an hour ago
- Business Recorder
Platform set for further growth: Experts weigh in on Pakistan Economic Survey 2024-25
The government, on Monday, a day before the federal budget is unveiled, released its much-awaited Pakistan Economic Survey 2024-25, which showed Pakistan's economy is expected to grow 2.7% in the fiscal year ending June 2025. Pakistan has provisionally recorded real GDP growth of 2.68% during FY25, missing the growth target of 3.6%, against 2.51% recorded in FY24. Talking to Business Recorder, economic analysts weigh in on Pakistan's economic performance during the outgoing fiscal. 'The economy moved in the right direction during the outgoing fiscal,' Waqas Ghani, Head of Research at JS Global, told Business Recorder. 'Services sector, which has a 58% share in GDP, contributed the most with 2.91% growth in FY25,' he said. On the other hand, agriculture posted modest growth of 0.56% in FY25, led by a 4.72% rise in livestock. However, major crops declined by 13.49% due to lower cultivation and weather challenges. The industry expanded by 4.77%, supported by small-scale manufacturing and slaughtering. The large-scale manufacturing (LSM) contracted by 1.5% amid high costs and supply constraints. 'The economy has stabilised in the outgoing fiscal, which has provided a platform set for further growth,' said Samiullah Tariq, Head of Research at Pak-Kuwait Investment Company. Meanwhile, Topline Securities, a brokerage house, believed that the GDP growth 'will be revised down, especially due to enlarged growth numbers of the industrial segment at 4.77% compared to actual growth in 9MFY25 at -1%'. Overseas Pakistanis help country post historic current account surplus of $1.9bn in 10MFY25 Islamabad is also targeting a GDP growth of 4.2% for the financial year 2025-26. 'The target is achievable if Pakistan remains steadfast in its reforms and follows the IMF programme,' Samiullah added. In another key development, Pakistan reported a current account surplus of $1.9 billion during the first ten months of the financial year 2024-25, marking a major turnaround from the $1.3 billion deficit recorded in the same period last year, according to the survey. 'This is a very positive development, and we expect the country to reach primary surplus in the upcoming fiscal year as well,' said Ghani. Moreover, tax collection also improved considerably in FY25, the finance minister informed that the number of individual filers doubled to 3.7 million, whereas the number of high-value filers jumped by 178% during the outgoing fiscal. 'Although the increase in tax collection is good, we need further rationalisation,' he added.
Business Recorder
an hour ago
- Business Recorder
Decoding Pakistan Economic Survey 2024-25: what the data tells us, in graphics
Pakistan government on Monday launched the Economic Survey for the financial year 2024-25. The country missed its gross domestic product (GDP) growth target of 3.6% in the outgoing fiscal year, posting a figure of 2.7%, revealed the Economic Survey 2024-25. According to the provisional figures provided by the survey, Pakistan's agriculture sector, industries and services sector registered subdued growth of 0.56%, 4.77% and 2.91%, respectively, during the outgoing fiscal year. Key highlights of Pakistan Economic Survey 2024-25 In a bid to make complex economic data more accessible, Business Recorder has transformed this year's Economic Survey into a series of impactful graphics taken from the survey report. From GDP growth trends to sector-wise performance, these visuals break down the key takeaways, offering a clear and engaging look at the numbers that shape the annual report on the country's economic progress for the outgoing financial year:
Express Tribune
2 hours ago
- Express Tribune
Pakistan Economic Survey 2024–25: wins, warnings and what's next
Pakistan has unveiled its Economic Survey 2024-25, revealing measurable improvement across key indicators, though challenges remain in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors. Here is a look at its key highlights: Growth and Investment Agriculture sector The agriculture sector demonstrated resilience in FY2025, recording growth of 0.56%, primarily driven by livestock performance. The sector's share in GDP declined slightly to 23.54% from 24.03% in FY2024. Important crops declined by 13.49% due to reduced cultivation area and adverse weather conditions, significantly affecting cotton (-30.7%), wheat (-8.9%), sugarcane (-3.9%), maize (-15.4%), and rice (-1.4%). Cotton production was recorded at 7.08 million bales, sugarcane 84.24 million tonnes, wheat 28.98 million tonnes, and rice at 9.72 million tonnes. Other crops grew by 4.78%, driven by robust performances in potato (11.5%), onion (15.9%), and mash (4.7%). Cotton ginning lost momentum, declining by 19.03% compared to the growth of 47.23% in the previous year. The livestock sector, contributing 63.60% to agriculture and 14.97% to Pakistan's GDP, grew by 4.72% in FY2025, up from 4.38% the previous year. The forestry sector recorded growth of 3.03%, maintaining a steady contribution of 2.31% to agriculture and 0.54% to GDP. The fisheries sector grew by 1.42%, improving from 0.81% last year, with a sectoral share of 1.31% in agriculture and 0.31% in GDP. Growth and investment Real GDP recorded growth of 2.68% in FY2025, underpinned by broad-based stabilization across key macroeconomic indicators. The industrial sector posted 4.77% growth driven by manufacturing recovery, while the services sector expanded 2.91%, maintaining its position as the largest GDP contributor with a 58.40% share. GDP at current market prices increased to Rs114,692 billion, reflecting a 9.1% increase from the previous year's Rs105,143 billion. The investment-to-GDP ratio reached 13.8% compared to 13.1% in FY2024, while the saving-to-GDP ratio increased to 14.1% from 12.6% last year. Fiscal Performance The fiscal deficit narrowed to 6.5% of GDP from 7.4% last year. Revenue collection grew 29% to Rs10.8 trillion, with tax revenue increasing 38%. Current expenditures rose 26% due to higher interest payments. Monetary situation Inflation declined sharply to a record low of 0.3% in April 2025, down from 17.3% in April 2024. The average CPI inflation for July-April was 4.7%, marking a significant decrease from 26.0% in the same period last year. The State Bank cut policy rates by 450 basis points to 17.5% since July 2024. Broad money supply grew 13.7%. External sector Per capita income reached $1,824, up from $1,662 in the previous year, showing a 9.7% increase supported by improved economic activity and a stable exchange rate. The current account recorded a $1.2 billion surplus (0.3% of GDP), while remittances grew 11% to $32 billion. Foreign reserves reached $14.3 billion, covering 3.6 months of imports. Health and education Pakistan's health sector showed modest improvements in FY2024- 25, with infant mortality declining to 52 per 1,000 live births from 56 last year, though national health expenditures remained at just 1.4% of GDP. The education sector saw literacy rates rise to 62.8%, while primary school enrollment reached 28.6 million children, yet education spending stayed at 2.1% of GDP, below regional benchmarks. Technology and Infrastructure The IT sector emerged as a bright spot, with exports surging 32% to $3.5 billion and digital banking transactions growing 89% to Rs12.7 trillion, as mobile broadband penetration reached 57% of the population. Transport infrastructure expanded with road networks growing to 284,772 km and aviation passenger traffic jumping 24%, though rural connectivity gaps persist. Demographics and Labor Population growth slowed slightly to 2.4%, with urban residents now comprising 40.1% of Pakistan's 241.5 million people, while labor force participation remained stagnant at 37.2%, with significant gender disparities. "Our digital transformation is accelerating, but human development needs matching investment," Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb told reporters during the survey's launch. Debt and Capital Markets Pakistan's public debt stood at Rs67.8 trillion (74.1% of GDP) by March 2025, marking a 2.3 percentage point decline from last year's 76.4% debt-to-GDP ratio. Domestic debt comprised 61% of the total at Rs41.4 trillion, while external debt accounted for Rs26.4 trillion. The capital market demonstrated robust growth with market capitalization at the Pakistan Stock Exchange surging 50% to Rs10.2 trillion, while the benchmark KSE-100 index gained 78,000 points during FY2025. Corporate bond issuance increased 38% year-on-year to Rs480 billion. Manufacturing and Mining Manufacturing output showed mixed results, with the industrial sector posting 4.77% growth driven by a recovery in manufacturing. Small-scale manufacturing and slaughtering helped offset contractions in large-scale manufacturing (LSM). The auto sector rebounded strongly with 42% production growth, while cement output declined 7.2%. The mining sector grew 2.1%, with coal production increasing 12% to 10.4 million tonnes. However, mineral exports fell 9% to $682 million due to global price fluctuations. Chromite production dropped 18% while rock salt output grew 5%. The mixed results come ahead of Tuesday's budget announcement, with observers watching for increased allocations to health and education. The survey noted particular challenges in maternal healthcare and secondary school enrollment, where rates continue to lag behind regional peers despite incremental improvements.
