Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi and the shape of things to come

Daily Maverick

a day ago

While the immediate focus is likely to be on President Cyril Ramaphosa's response to the crisis in our policing cluster, the events of the past week might mark the start of a new era in our security services. As the ANC continues to weaken, there is now a greater risk that they become hopelessly politicised and riven with factions. In a worst-case scenario, they could even start to fall outside democratic control.
There is no doubt about the seriousness of the disputes within the SAPS. This is perhaps the first time since 1994 that a President has decided to address the nation on issues relating to security, and disputes within that cluster.
Perhaps the only incident which comes close to this is Ramaphosa's address to the nation during the violence in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng in July 2021.
While the dynamics that have led to this recent set of claims by KZN Police Commissioner Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi are important, it is also important to remember how deep the roots of the politicisation of our police service are.
Arguably, they go back to the decision by then President Thabo Mbeki to appoint Jackie Selebi as National Police Commissioner.
Political boundaries
It was not just that he was found to be corrupt, but that he also played what now appears to be a political role. His decisions to shut down specialised units were not rational at the time, and have never been properly explained.
It is also well known that our police and security services played a factional role in the ANC.
Aubrey Matshiqi has explained how, in 2007, he met members of the State Security Agency and advised them to remain neutral in the ANC's Polokwane national conference.
As he records, they failed to do so.
By October that year, the Constitutional Court had to rule in a case brought by then SSA head Billy Masethla, after Mbeki fired him over his apparent support for Zuma.
The consequences of that ruling are still with us today. It was the first case in which judges said someone fired from a government position must be paid until the end of their term.
Much has already been said, many times, about how former president Jacob Zuma used the security services. Richard Mdluli, his pick for police Crime Intelligence head, clearly played a political role in Zuma's service.
Oscar van Heerden has written about an SSA room at the ANC's 2017 Nasrec conference. He says that when Ramaphosa became aware of it, he went to the room during one of his morning walks, burst open the door and asked those inside what it was for.
ANC, security services hopelessly intertwined
All of this shows how hopelessly intertwined the police and security services have become with the ANC.
This also suggests that this dispute, between different people in the police and a politician, could be further proof of both the divisions in the party, and its weakness.
There can be many elements in what places boundaries around the behaviour of people in leadership positions in the SAPS and the SANDF.
But two related points must be the political authority and the legitimacy of those voted into office.
In other words, even if a police minister does not have the legal authority to order a police commissioner to take certain actions, a minister who is seen to have political authority and political power might find the commissioner follows their suggestion.
Also, if the president is seen to have legitimacy while SAPS leaders do not, it might follow that they would always follow his or her lead.
If there is a leader without legitimacy, it would be easier to disobey them.
It would also follow that if, in a society where so many call for tough action against criminals, or illegal immigrants or any other group, those who lead the security services could believe they have more legitimacy than democratically elected leaders.
Political authority and legitimacy
Especially if, as in the case of Mkhwanazi, they are seen by the public to be successful. This may explain his strange social media campaign.
This might increase the potential for police and military leaders to pursue their own agendas.
It seems unlikely that someone like Mkhwanazi might have held a public press conference to attack the police minister of a president as powerful as Zuma or Mbeki were at the height of the ANC's power.
Unfortunately, it is likely that our politicians will begin to have less and less political authority and legitimacy. This will make it harder for them to exercise authority, whether moral, political or legal, on those who run different units or parts of the military and the police.
There is much to be afraid of here.
Matshiqi warned on Newzroom Afrika on Friday that a situation could even develop where a particular figure can behave in the way J Edgar Hoover did in the US from the 1940s.
While head of the FBI, he kept files and conducted campaigns against many people in public life. No one felt they could act against him – even presidents did not take him on directly.
Over time, Hoover came to amass huge power.
This was largely because he could use state resources to spy on people, to conduct phone taps and generally monitor people he was suspicious of.
KZN dynamics
Matshiqi is entirely correct; it is easy to imagine such a figure emerging here.
So fraught could our politics, and our coalitions become, that such a person might even accumulate secret political power.
It is no accident that this latest set of claims involves dynamics in KZN. While the individuals and their characters and decisions are important, there may be other factors at play.
The politics of KZN may point to the future of our national politics.
It is a province that has been governed by the IFP, the ANC, and now a coalition of the IFP, the ANC and the DA. Meanwhile, it has another major political actor in the uMkhonto WeSizwe party.
Voters there have changed their minds more often than in other parts of the country, partly because it has had a greater number of bigger parties and partly because it has a bigger set of issues (to oversimplify: in most places political contests have been between the ANC and the DA, in KZN it's always been the IFP, the ANC and the DA).
As the rest of the country also now has more parties to choose from, so is it likely that more police and military leaders support different groups, or different factions in different parties.
This underscores one of the risks of having no central point of political authority.
Of course, there are other possible outcomes.
Many parties in government may work together to properly depoliticise the security services. That people who are not aligned to any one group or party are appointed, and then continue to conduct themselves in that way.
It is also possible that the character of those in these positions forces them to create new conventions that separate their roles from politics. Over time, those coming up through the ranks would adopt this into the culture of these organisations.