Which Australian suburbs have the strongest support for teal independents?
At the May 3 election, more than half of all voters in the most teal-leaning suburbs cast a primary vote for their independent MP. Many were so disillusioned with a party that once was guaranteed to claim the lion's share of ballot paper '1's, they directed their preferences into the red corner of their ballot paper instead of the Liberals.
Four booths in Sydney – Avalon Beach in Sophie Scamps' Mackellar on the northern beaches and Paddington North, Darlinghurst East and Bondi Beach East in Allegra Spender's eastern suburbs seat of Wentworth – led the way in ensuring their respective teal MP was re-elected with an increased majority, tallying primary vote totals above 50 per cent.
At another 88 booths across the six lower-house seats won by teals – including Warringah and Bradfield in Sydney, Kooyong in Melbourne and Curtin in Perth – the independent's primary vote was between 40 and 50 per cent. Even in Goldstein, where former MP Zoe Daniel was narrowly ousted by Liberal returnee Tim Wilson, several teal-leaning communities still pushed Daniel past 40 per cent of primary votes.
In the beachside enclave of Avalon – whose three booths finished in the top 11 teal-voting locations nationwide – disillusionment towards the major parties, a strong focus on community issues and progressive social values underpinned Dr Scamps' re-election.
Residents Giles Belcher and Alex Carr said they supported Dr Scamps because she hadn't done 'anything wrong', as opposed to the major parties.
'(Mackellar) was a Liberal stronghold for years but no one ever did anything … we were just ignored, so it was a protest vote to start with,' Mr Belcher said.
'(Dr Scamps) didn't do anything wrong. The Liberals are still a mess so she got in again.
'I think she advocated for the area relatively well … I'm not sure I could point to any one thing that she actually got done, but at least she was a voice, whereas I don't think there was one before.'
Mr Carr said the teal vote benefited from an electorate that was an 'unusual blend of being quite environmentally upstanding and community-based, as well as relatively well off' – something, he said, the Labor and Liberal parties respectively neglected.
'You can be very liberal in certain points of view and then still focus on the economics of the world … the perception is (the teals) sit in that centrist place quite nicely.'
He said the electorate had not turned anti-Liberal but rather found an alternative that spoke to the community's position better.
'It comes down to the leadership – so therefore if I buy the leadership and the vision of the Liberal Party and then the person on the ground is right, then yeah, I don't think anyone is averse to the Liberal Party,' Mr Carr said.
'It's OK to want your pocket full but believe in environmental change. They seem to be able to hit that mark quite well, whereas I think the other parties have missed that point.'
Mr Belcher also opened the door to a Liberal return. 'Leadership is key,' he said. 'If you had somebody with a good vision and the local person was right, I think people would vote for (Liberals) again. But without that, I don't think they have a chance.'
Teal voter Ellie Rourke said Dr Scamps had 'done a lot to win the hearts and minds of us here' and that her trustworthiness bolstered her votes. For the Liberals to have any chance of winning back the electorate, they must regain trust and pick a better candidate.
'It's in the individual candidate, not necessarily the party's policies here … I think the Liberals have a lot of work to do across Australia to regain trust, and then within that we just need a better candidate,' Ms Rourke said. Judging by how many Avalon residents voted for the unsuccessful Liberal candidate, James Brown – the former son-in-law of ex-Liberal prime minister Malcolm Turnbull – she's right.
At the Avalon Beach booth just over 10 years ago, then Liberal MP Bronwyn Bishop won the support of 53 per cent of voters, slightly more than Dr Scamps at this election. On May 3, Mr Brown wasn't able to win even a quarter of the primary votes, finishing with 24.1 per cent.
A similar pattern played out in other teal-aligned booths across the country. In Wentworth, Allegra Spender received 46.4 per cent of first preferences in Woollahra, while her Liberal opponent, Ro Knox, won 34.9 per cent – a far cry from the 69.3 per cent Mr Turnbull received at the 2013 election, before he became party leader.
In Warringah, home to the original teal MP Zali Steggall, the former Olympic freestyle skier almost cracked half of the primary vote in Fairlight (49.5 per cent), while her Liberal opponent, Jaimee Rogers, managed just 28.1 per cent, well below the 52.1 per cent Tony Abbott received when he led the Coalition to power in 2013.
And in Kooyong, Josh Frydenberg's 50.1 per cent of the vote at the Auburn Primary School in 2013 was well out of reach for Amelia Hamer, who barely reached 30 per cent, far behind the 46.8 per cent who gave their first preferences to teal MP Monique Ryan and helped her win one of the most intensely fought electorates of the 2025 election.
In Bradfield, the Liberals have lodged a challenge against the result in which Nicolette Boele was declared the winner after a recount gave her a 26-vote victory, reversing the initial count that found Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian had narrowly won.
Whether the Liberals should pour resources into trying to regain the teal seats has been a source of debate within Coalition circles. Former leader Peter Dutton focused his attentions on outer-metropolitan seats before the 2025 election, barely setting foot in the teal seats across the five weeks of the campaign. After that approach failed spectacularly, with the Liberals losing a swag of outer-urban electorates including Mr Dutton's own seat, his replacement Sussan Ley declared winning back all lost seats, including those surrendered to the teals, would be a priority.
In Avalon – a suburb named after the island from the legend of King Arthur where magic and mythical healing helped him recover from his battle wounds – no such forces look like helping Ms Ley's Liberals any time soon.
Resident Jeremy Ing, who is a Liberal voter, said he was 'worried' Mackellar's future was teal.
'I don't see how we won't have a teal MP going forwards because the reality is you've got the Coalition standing against at least three parties because the Greens and Labor preference the teals,' Mr Ing said.
His wife Susan, who voted for Labor, said any electorate with a strong teal representation was 'reflective of the disillusionment mainly with the Liberal Party'.
'People are fiscally conservative but socially want to see changes,' Ms Ing said.
Asked for comment on the rise of the teals in one-time Liberal strongholds and the failure to win back any of the Sydney seats lost to the independents, a NSW Liberal Party spokesperson said the 2025 campaign would be subject to 'thorough analysis' in a review conducted by former politicians Pru Goward and Nick Minchin. Politics
Home Affairs Tony Burke says Palestinian author Mona Zahed did not apply for a humanitarian visa, but instead had applied for an entertainment visa that she was not eligible for, resulting in her application not being cancelled on character grounds. Politics
The two leaders addressed rising tensions in Gaza and growing Chinese assertiveness in the Pacific during high-level talks in Queenstown on Saturday.
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