Last Year's Cannes Winners Won Big at Oscars. Can the 2025 Crop Do the Same?

New York Times

26-05-2025

Awards strategists used to be wary of the Cannes Film Festival, claiming it came too early in the calendar to launch a lasting Oscar campaign.
They don't say that anymore.
The last two editions of Cannes have proved to be a veritable gold rush, producing three best-picture nominees each. The 2024 festival proved particularly fruitful, as films that premiered at Cannes — including 'Emilia Pérez,' 'The Substance,' 'Flow' and the eventual best-picture winner, 'Anora' — won a combined nine Oscars.
But this year's crop of Cannes contenders may have a harder time hitting those highs. The three films with the strongest best-picture potential are all primarily in a language other than English, and the academy has never nominated more than two such films in a single year for the top Oscar. Still, as the academy grows ever more global, it's possible all three could break through.
The first big contender is Jafar Panahi's 'Un Simple Accident,' a taut moral drama about former Iranian prisoners who believe they've tracked down their old torturer. The winner of the Palme d'Or, 'Un Simple Accident' is the most accessible movie yet from Panahi, a dissident filmmaker who has twice been imprisoned by Iranian authorities. And like the last five Palme winners, the film will be distributed by Neon, which has a track record of steering them to Oscar glory.
Only one thing gives me pause. Neon also handled last year's Cannes entry 'The Seed of the Sacred Fig,' which had a similar back story: It, too, was directed in secret by an Iranian dissident, though even with that compelling narrative, it couldn't muster more than an international-film nomination. Hopefully, Panahi's Palme win will nudge Neon to campaign even harder for 'Un Simple Accident,' which could factor into the picture and director categories with the right push.
Neon is also distributing the Norwegian drama 'Sentimental Value,' which won the second-place prize at Cannes. Directed by Joachim Trier ('The Worst Person in the World'), it stars Stellan Skarsgard as a filmmaker who tries to reconnect with his estranged daughter (played by Renate Reinsve) by offering her a leading role.
With its focus on acting and filmmaking, 'Sentimental Value' will hit home for many voters. A best-picture nomination is possible, though its strongest shot at a major nod is a first nomination for the never-better Skarsgard, It may help, too, that several of the movie's scenes are in English as Skarsgard's character woos a Hollywood actress (Elle Fanning) to take part in his new project.
Another film about moviemaking that could charm its way into the race is 'Nouvelle Vague,' from the director Richard Linklater ('Boyhood'). Filmed in French and shot in luscious black and white, it's a behind-the-scenes comedy about the making of Jean-Luc Godard's seminal 'Breathless.' Though it left Cannes empty-handed, 'Nouvelle Vague' is a highbrow crowd-pleaser in the vein of 'The Artist,' and if the right studio picks it up, a best-picture nomination is well within reach.
Among the acting contenders, Jennifer Lawrence drew raves as a disintegrating new mother in 'Die My Love,' though the movie itself divided critics. The festival's best-actor award went to Wagner Moura for the Brazilian drama 'The Secret Agent,' another Neon pickup. If the studio doesn't already have its hands full with 'Sentimental Value' and 'Un Simple Accident,' Moura (best known to stateside audiences for his roles in 'Narcos' and 'Civil War') deserves a robust campaign.
Finally, the international-feature race is almost certain to be stuffed with Cannes breakouts. Three that won awards at the festival were 'Sound of Falling' (Germany), 'My Father's Shadow' (Nigeria), and 'The President's Cake,' the first Iraqi film to ever be honored at Cannes. Expect all three to be major contenders in that race.