The big, beautiful bill has a big image issue

Axios

01-07-2025

Ahead of the Senate's passage of President Trump's sweeping domestic policy bill, Americans expressed deep skepticism about the legislation across a variety of a recent polls.
The big picture: Republicans are aware polling on the signature tax and spending bill isn't pretty, Axios' Stef Kight reports, but Senate Majority Leader John Thune predicts the numbers could jump after the final bill is passed.
He told Kight Democrats "have done a good job out-demagoguing" on the big, beautiful bill, which has some popular parts according to polling provided by the White House.
White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson told Axios in a statement that "[i]t's no shock" provisions in the bill "are hugely popular," saying, "the fact remains: the American people want the One Big Beautiful passed and Congress must deliver."
But overall, the bill is finding muted public support.
Zoom in: Polling taken throughout June showed that Americans largely disapprove of the megabill but are more split on some of the specific provisions.
Quinnipiac polling conducted June 22 to 24 and released on Thursday found that 55% of voters oppose the bill, while 29% support it. Another 20% did not offer an opinion.
But on Medicaid work requirements included in the bill, the numbers reflect more of a divide: 47% supported the measure, while 46% opposed it.
Zoom out: The Washington Post-Ipsos polling from June 6 to 10highlighted similar nuance. Overall, 42% oppose the bill "changing tax, spending and Medicaid policies," while 23% support it. Another 34% said they have no opinion.
52% said they supported work requirements for low-income childless adults to get health insurance. However, when told that some 8 million people could lose health coverage as a result of the bill's changes, 63% said that was unacceptable.
The House-passed version is projected to lead to more than 10 million without insurance, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
Opinions on extending Trump's 2017 tax cuts were varied, with majorities supporting extending cuts for individuals with incomes under $100,000 (71%) and between $100,000 and $200,000 (53%).
But support crashes for extending tax cuts for individuals with income above $400,000 (29%) and corporations (30%).
By the numbers: The bill slipped underwater in several other recent polls, including ones from Fox News (38% favored vs. 59% opposed), KFF (64% viewed unfavorably, 35% viewed unfavorably) and Pew Research Center (49% opposed and 29% in favor).
The intrigue: KFF's polling found that while most Republicans had a favorable opinion of the bill, when broken down by whether respondents are members of the MAGA movement, the results differed.
Among MAGA-supporting Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 72% viewed the bill favorably, whereas only 33% of non-MAGA supporters agreed.
But when Republicans and MAGA supporters heard the legislation would increase the uninsured rate in the country and decrease funding for local hospitals, favorability in the KFF poll plummeted by at least 20 points.
Friction point: Opposition to the tax and spending bill has been public, loud and varied in its origin.
Democrats have hammered the bill's blows to safety net programs — over which some Republicans also expressed qualms.
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), one of those GOP holdouts who opposed Medicaid cuts, announced he wouldn't run for reelection Sunday.
And the bill drove an explosive wedge between Trump and his once DOGE head Elon Musk, who for weeks has blasted the bill for the projected trillions it will add to budget deficits and its provision to raise the debt ceiling.
What we're watching: Thune predicts certain provisions in the massive piece of legislation — which Democrats forced all 900-plus pages of to be read on the floor — will surprise voters in a good way.
But as both chambers must approve the same bill, it's far from guaranteed that House Republicans will accept the Senate's version, which has some members fuming.
Its final form is still up in the air — but public opinion on it is deep underwater.