US consumer spending slows in April; inflation rises moderately

Time of India

6 days ago

U.S. consumer spending saw a slight increase of 0.2% in April, following a more substantial 0.7% rise in March, as pre-emptive buying slowed down. This increase was influenced by President Trump's import tariffs. The Federal Reserve expressed concerns that these tariffs could hinder economic growth and increase inflation.
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U.S. consumer spending increased marginally in April as a rush to beat higher prices from import duties slowed.Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, rose 0.2% last month after an unrevised 0.7% jump in March, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending climbing 0.2%.Pre-emptive buying of goods ahead of President Donald Trump 's sweeping import tariffs helped to push spending higher in the prior month. Most of the tariffs have been implemented though higher duties on goods have been delayed until July.Duties on Chinese imports have been slashed to 30% from 145% until mid-August. Economists have argued that Trump's aggressive trade policy will sharply slow economic growth this year and boost inflation, concerns echoed by Federal Reserve officials.Minutes of the U.S. central bank's May 6-7 meeting published on Wednesday noted "participants judged that downside risks to employment and economic activity and upside risks to inflation had risen, primarily reflecting the potential effects of tariff increases." The U.S. central bank has kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range since December.A U.S. trade court on Wednesday blocked most of Trump's tariffs from going into effect in a sweeping ruling that the president overstepped his authority. They were temporarily reinstated by a federal appeals court on Thursday, adding another layer of uncertainty over the economy's outlook.The economy by all measures contracted at a 0.2% annualized rate in the first quarter after growing at a 2.4% pace in the October-December quarter.With the exception of trade data, most official economic reports are yet to show the negative effects of tariffs in a significant way, though sentiment surveys have deteriorated. Economists expect the hit could become evident in June data.Inflation was benign in April, with retailers likely still selling inventory accumulated before the tariffs. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.1% last month after being unchanged in March, the BEA said.In the 12 months through April, PCE prices increased 2.1% after advancing 2.3% in March.Stripping out the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index gained 0.1% last month. That followed a similar rise in the so-called core PCE inflation in March.In the 12 months through April, core inflation rose 2.5% after climbing 2.7% in March. The Fed tracks the PCE price measures for its 2% inflation target.Economists expect inflation to accelerate this year as tariffs raise goods prices. Consumers' one-year inflation expectations have soared.The Fed minutes on Wednesday showed some policymakers assessed that the surge in short-term inflation expectations "could make firms more willing to raise prices."They also saw a risk that longer-term inflation expectations "could drift upward, which could put additional upward pressure on inflation."