logo
Israel's air superiority in Iran conflict can't be compared to either Russia or Ukraine

Israel's air superiority in Iran conflict can't be compared to either Russia or Ukraine

Israel's ability to achieve air superiority over Iran during its recent 12-day conflict has been contrasted with Russia's inability to gain control of Ukraine's skies and the US's failure to do the same during its recent attacks against Yemen's Houthi fighters.
To be sure, in its surprise attack on Iran, Israel reaffirmed the value of old-school air superiority, even in the age of ballistic missile and drone warfare.
'Just ask yourself, would you want to be Ukraine or Israel?" Douglas Birkey, the executive director of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, told Middle East Eye.
"Ukraine has zero ability to scare the sky for offensive or defensive purposes. It's stuck in WWI-style attrition conflict while Israel had entré to do what it wanted in the battle-space,' Birkey added.
But analysts say that despite some trying to draw comparisons, all three conflicts are uniquely distinct, and drawing connections could in fact be misleading. This is especially true with the Iran-Israel outcome more uncertain, and the countries both moving to address their vulnerabilities.
New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch
Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters
According to Andrew Curtis, a retired air commodore in Britain's Royal Air Force and associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, the "comparisons in terms of the technology and battle space are apples-to-oranges".
First, Iran's US-supplied air force quickly decayed after the 1979 overthrow of the Shah. So 40 years later, Israel knew it didn't have to worry about Iranian pilots, whereas Ukraine still had 55 operational fighter jets from Soviet days when Russia invaded in early 2022.
Ukraine's air defence systems - mainly S-300s and Buk batteries - were intimately familiar to the Russians. However, they failed to capitalise on this knowledge and take them out early - a misstep that military analysts say Moscow is still paying the price for.
Under US guidance, the Ukrainians dispersed their air defences, making it harder for the Russians to locate them. Ukraine was then backed up with US-made Stingers and, more recently, precious Patriot air defence batteries.
Israel learned from Russia's early failures by knocking out Iran's air defences on the opening day of the war, experts said.
They reportedly used teams of Mossad agents with drones smuggled into Iran and fifth-generation modified F-35 warplanes to stay in the sky without refuelling to disable Iran's mix of domestic air defence, and Russian and Chinese equipment.
'If you can find, you can kill, and if you can hide, you can survive'
- Andrew Curtis, former air commodore, Royal Air Force
Once Iran's air defences were knocked out, Israel's more vulnerable non-stealth F-15s and F-16s were able to roam Iran's skies.
The key for Israel was intelligence collection.
"No one expected the F-35 to be shot down by Iran's air defences," Curtis told MEE.
"But it was Israel's ability to hunt down Iran's batteries and destroy them to clear the path for more vulnerable aircraft that was key. Israel spent decades collecting intelligence on Iran's defences, whereas the Russians did not with Ukraine."
Some experts expressed surprise at how quickly Israel was able to achieve air superiority over Iran, noting that the US was unable to do so against Tehran's allies, the Houthis in Yemen. Between January 2024 and May 2025, when US President Donald Trump struck a truce with the Houthis, the group was able to shoot down at least 19 US Reaper drones.
"The Iranians and the Houthis have the same equipment," Birkey told MEE. "In that sense, we should not underestimate how impressive Israel's performance was."
Of course, drones are easier to shoot down than jet fighters. And again, it came down to intelligence collection, experts say.
"Houthi air defences have not been an intelligence collection priority for the US," a US defence official told MEE on the condition of anonymity.
That leaves an opening for Iran now, as it looks to rebuild its defences, experts say.
Can Israel maintain its air superiority?
Sources told MEE last week that Iran was moving to rebuild its air defences and had purchased Chinese surface-to-air missile batteries since its ceasefire with Israel last month.
According to the analysts, if it can plug its intelligence gaps and better disperse those systems, it will be harder for Israel to achieve air superiority next time.
"It's all about hiding and finding," Curtis told MEE. "If you can find, you can kill, and if you can hide, you can survive."
A former senior US official told MEE that he was sceptical Iran would learn from its mistakes.
"The ayatollah still thinks he killed 200 American soldiers at al-Asad because that's what his people told him," the former US official said, referring to Iran's 2020 strike on a US base in retaliation for the assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. No American deaths were reported as a result of the largely symbolic strike.
"Say what you want about Israel, but I promise you the military will have an intense debate about the shortfalls of their ballistic missile defence internally. Iran is unlikely to have the same," the former senior US official added.
Israel used its air superiority to knock out Iranian ballistic missile launchers on the ground. It claimed to have destroyed half of them during the conflict.
Despite this, and a tiered air defence system backed up by American Terminal High Altitude Area Defence batteries and missile destroyers in the Eastern Mediterranean, Iran was able to send missiles into Israeli cities right up until a ceasefire was reached.
Iran receives Chinese surface-to-air missile batteries after Israel ceasefire deal Read More »
The Telegraph reported last week that Iranian missiles directly hit five Israeli military facilities.
Iran's ability to do so did not go unnoticed in the region, particularly in the Arabian Gulf, where the US's allies have energy infrastructure and glitzy towers with no similar American air defence backstop.
Still, Birkey said the sheer volume of Iranian missiles fired at Israel underscored that Israel's US-supported air defence "was more effective than many people would have guessed from the get-go".
"The weakness is that it is an enterprise where you are at risk of running out of your magazine depth. We only have so many interceptors and the ability to produce them," he said.
Having achieved air superiority over Iran once, Israel now faces its own dilemma.
Air superiority is not static. Maintaining it over a small country like Lebanon, where Israel is tracking Hezbollah's movements with drones, is easier than in vast Iran.
One of the Islamic Republic's first moves after the ceasefire in June was to try to rout out Israeli spies.
"Hunting missile launchers is really hard. You need someone detecting them - that's spies or persistent ISR (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance)," Fabian Hinz, a defence and military researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told MEE.
With Iran receiving SAM batteries from China, Israel faces a new dilemma: whether to strike them or not.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wrapped up a visit to Washington last week, which US and Arab officials tell MEE appeared to be an effort to obtain US buy-in for more strikes on Iran instead of negotiations.
"I would predict the Israelis would prevent the Iranians from establishing another air defence network unless they are deterred by the US," the former senior US official told MEE.
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Satellite images show extent of Israeli strikes on Yemeni ports held by Houthis
Satellite images show extent of Israeli strikes on Yemeni ports held by Houthis

The National

time22 minutes ago

  • The National

Satellite images show extent of Israeli strikes on Yemeni ports held by Houthis

Repeated Israeli strikes on Yemeni ports held by Houthi rebels have had little effect on the operations there, satellite images indicate. Fuel shipments at ports controlled by the Iran-backed group have continued despite disruption to pipelines, with the Houthis finding alternative means of getting supplies ashore, analysis shows. Israel launched its most recent attacks overnight on July 6. Air strikes targeted the Red Sea ports of Hodeidah, Ras Isa and Al Salif, the Ras Kanatib power station and the cargo ship Galaxy Leader − which was hijacked by the Houthis in 2023 and Israel claims was being used to monitor international shipping. Israel has hit key Houthi-controlled ports numerous times Since the start of the Israel-Gaza war, the Houthis have regularly attacked shipping in the Red Sea and fired missiles and drones at Israel. The rebels say they are acting in solidarity with Palestinians. Here, The National looks at what Israel has targeted and the impact − or lack of impact − of strikes on Houthi infrastructure. Hodeidah – the Houthis' largest port Hodeidah, the Houthis' main gateway to the Red Sea, has been struck multiple times since July 2024. Imagery from July 4, 2025, reveals heavy crater damage, undoubtedly affecting and limiting fuel operations. Impact on As Salif, Ras Isa and Ras Kanatib after Israeli strikes on July 7, 2025 Below is a series of satellite images showing before and after damage to two ports and a power station along the coast of Houthi-controlled Hodeidah on the Red Sea. All three locations have been key to Houthi refuelling and stockpiles. As Salif port: Strikes along the full length of the pier. Despite damage, cargo vessels remain docked. Ras Isa terminal: Strikes targeted fuel terminals and the hijacked Galaxy Leader, which is docked at the port. Ras Kanatib power station: New damage is visible on what appear to be the main generator units. Ships keep docking and fuel keeps flowing Visual time-lapse satellite data from July 2024 to July 2025 shows fuel shipments to Houthi-held ports have not stopped. Ships continue to dock, and alternative offloading methods are being used to bypass damaged infrastructure. 'Big shipments have been affected significantly. But the Houthis adapt − they use alternate docks or just a simple pipe and a tanker to move oil,' said Baraa Shiban, a senior fellow with the London-based Royal United Services Institute think tank. Offshore fuel transfers Some Houthi-affiliated tankers, such as Valente and VLCC Yemen, are seen transferring fuel offshore, a strategy that allows them to bypass ports altogether. Satellite images show ships anchored in the sea, side-by-side near Hodeidah. While the strikes have targeted port infrastructure, most of the Houthis' weaponry and power bases remain inland, untouched. Analysts have questioned the long-term strategic value of Israel's approach. 'Israel's military goals look very ambiguous, It's not clear what they are trying to achieve through these strikes,' said Mr Shiban. 'If the aim is to eliminate the Houthis threat now, of course, they haven't been successful. The Houthis will continue attacking, attacking Israel. 'But if the aim is just to send a message that they can, hit them. As a form of deterrence, then you can say yes, they've, signalled that multiple times. For the Houthis, the main fear is if they lose terrain, if they lose land, and that's not happening at the moment." Symbolic and disruptive Despite sustained bombing campaigns, the Houthis continue to launch missiles and attack vessels in the Red Sea. Two ships have been sunk in Houthi attacks in the past week or so – the Magic Seas on July 6 and the Eternity C on July 9. While all 22 people on the Magic Seas were rescued, four of the 25 crew on the Eternity C are presumed dead, with another 11 unaccounted for. As images show continued fuel movement and maritime adaptability, the Houthis' resilience raises questions about the effectiveness of Israel's air campaign. While symbolic and disruptive, the strikes have not yet significantly altered the rebel group's operational capabilities.

Andrew Cuomo: Favourite choice for pro-Israel voices jumps back into NYC mayoral race
Andrew Cuomo: Favourite choice for pro-Israel voices jumps back into NYC mayoral race

Middle East Eye

time2 hours ago

  • Middle East Eye

Andrew Cuomo: Favourite choice for pro-Israel voices jumps back into NYC mayoral race

He was New York's governor for a decade until he resigned in 2021, following allegations of sexual harassment from at least 11 women. During that same period, he was also alleged to have undercounted the number of Covid-19 deaths in nursing homes by some 50 percent, even as he gained worldwide recognition for his daily press briefings during New York's pandemic lockdown. But Andrew Cuomo just won't quit. Last month, he was handily beaten in the Democratic mayoral primary by newcomer and self-described "Democratic Socialist" Zohran Mamdani. It was, by all accounts, a stunning upset for a man from a political dynasty who thought the candidacy - and the job - was his for the taking. Cuomo conceded the race before it was called, when the numbers showed he wouldn't be able to catch up to his rival. But on Monday, he jumped right back in, this time as an Independent candidate, vowing that he was "in it to win it". New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters In a 90-second video that seemed to mimic what has been a resoundingly successful campaign approach adopted by 33-year-old Mamdani, the 67-year-old Cuomo is seen in a casual summer button-down shirt, shaking hands with New Yorkers as he walks down the street. "My opponent Mandani offers slick slogans, but no real solutions," Cuomo said in the video, once again mispronouncing Mamdani's name as he did repeatedly during their primary debate. "You deserve a mayor with the experience and ideas to make [affordability] happen," he added, referring to Mamdani's key campaign promise but also his relative lack of political experience. In a letter Cuomo sent to supporters, cited by The New York Times, he acknowledged that he "played it safe, believing in the polls that said our campaign was way ahead". 'I was not aggressive enough in communicating my vision for a fairer, safer, more affordable New York, or in debunking and exposing Zohran Mamdani's unrealistic proposals and divisive agenda. I promise you, I will not make that mistake again," he said. One of the biggest shortcomings of his initial campaign was not making himself available to reporters and strictly sticking to a script, The New York Times also reported. And despite outside groups pulling together well over $25m from hedge funders and billionaire CEOs to back his candidacy, Cuomo still only took in 48 percent of the votes compared to Mamdani's 56 percent. Palestinians rights Cuomo was also backed by the old guard of the Democratic establishment, including former president Bill Clinton and Senate Minority Leader and New York Senator Chuck Schumer. They all congratulated Mamdani, but refused to endorse him after he won the party nomination. This was in large part due to Mamdani's support for the Palestinian liberation movement, which also calls for a one-state solution with equal rights for all citizens. More than one million Jewish people reside in New York City alone, the largest number outside of Israel. Some are dual US-Israeli citizens. Cuomo has repeatedly emphasised his pro-Israel credentials and was accused by Mamdani's people of running an Islamophobic campaign. Brad Lander, the city comptroller and highest-ranking Jewish official in New York, echoed that accusation during his own campaign for the Democratic mayoral nomination. On Monday, while reposting Cuomo's video on X, Lander said the vote "did not go the way I had hoped either", but that "unlike Andrew Cuomo, I'm capable of listening to New Yorkers" who rejected him the first time around. Cuomo and Netanyahu Cuomo has long been the favoured choice for the pro-Israel camp among Democrats, but he more firmly embedded himself in the movement last year, when he formed the group "Never Again, NOW!" in light of the 7 October 2023 Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel, which led to the deaths of around 1,200 people, and subsequent start of the war on Gaza. Since then, Israel has killed more than 58,000 Palestinians, nearly half of whom were children. In November, Cuomo joined the legal team to defend Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza, after a warrant was issued for Netanyahu by the International Criminal Court (ICC). "I am proud to be on the legal defense for the prime minister against the arrest warrant at the ICC and I am proud to stand against antisemitism," Cuomo said at the time. Mamdani, meanwhile, pledged to have Netanyahu arrested should he ever set foot in New York City. The general election to decide New York City's next mayor is on 4 November. The current mayor and scandal-plagued former police chief, Eric Adams, will also be running for re-election as an Independent. He was previously charged with accepting bribes from Turkish officials, but when the Trump administration came into power, those charges were dropped.

Renowned Israeli professor says Israel committing genocide in Gaza
Renowned Israeli professor says Israel committing genocide in Gaza

Middle East Eye

time2 hours ago

  • Middle East Eye

Renowned Israeli professor says Israel committing genocide in Gaza

A renowned professor of Holocaust and genocide studies has called Israel's war on Gaza an "inescapable" case of genocide, joining a chorus of prominent Israeli and Jewish scholars coming to the same conclusion about Israel's 21-month war on the besieged enclave. Omer Bartov, a professor at Brown University and a former Israeli army soldier, wrote in The New York Times on Tuesday that after deliberating and examining Israel's war, his "inescapable conclusion… [is] that Israel is committing genocide against the Palestinian people". "Having grown up in a Zionist home, lived the first half of my life in Israel, served in the IDF [Israel Defence Forces] as a soldier and officer and spent most of my career researching and writing on war crimes and the Holocaust, this was a painful conclusion to reach, and one that I resisted as long as I could," he wrote. "But I have been teaching classes on genocide for a quarter of a century. I can recognize one when I see one," he added. Bartov is considered one of the world's leading scholars of the WWII Holocaust and an expert on genocide. One of his most well-known books is Anatomy of a Genocide. New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters Bartov's article comes on the heels of a report by Dutch newspaper NRC, which interviewed seven renowned genocide and Holocaust researchers from six countries - including Israel - all of whom described the Israeli campaign in Gaza as genocidal. Leading human rights organisations have also reached the conclusion that Israel is committing genocide. In December 2024, Amnesty International became the first major organisation to conclude that Israel had committed genocide during its war on Gaza, while Human Rights Watch more conservatively concluded that "genocidal acts" had been committed. UN rapporteur: Tech firms and corporations profiting from Israeli 'economy of genocide' Read More » Francesca Albanese, the UN's top expert on Palestine, authored two reports last year suggesting that genocide was taking place in Gaza. Other prominent Israeli academics, including the historian Avi Shlaim, have argued that Israel's war on Gaza constitutes a genocide. Bartov said his decision was based on identifying the intent of Israeli officials to conduct genocide and action on the ground. "In Israel's case, that intent has been publicly expressed by numerous officials and leaders. But intent can also be derived from a pattern of operations on the ground, and this pattern became clear by May 2024 - and has since become ever clearer - as the IDF has systematically destroyed the Gaza Strip," he said. Bartov noted that Israel denies all allegations that it is conducting a genocide in the Gaza Strip, but he said that "the systematic destruction in Gaza not only of housing but also of other infrastructure - government buildings, hospitals, universities, schools, mosques, cultural heritage sites, water treatment plants, agriculture areas, and parks - reflects a policy aimed at making the revival of Palestinian life in the territory highly unlikely". At least 58,479 Palestinians - mainly women and children - have been killed by Israel's offensive on Gaza in response to the Hamas-led 7 October 2023 attack on southern Israel. In June, a UN Commission of Inquiry found that Israeli air strikes, shelling, burning and controlled demolitions had damaged or destroyed more than 90 percent of schools and university buildings across the Gaza Strip. A study earlier this year found that 80 percent of Gaza's water and sanitation infrastructure had been destroyed. Bartov also criticised some historians who have called critics of Israel's war on Gaza "antisemitic". He said he was concerned about the broader ramifications of this rift "between genocide scholars and Holocaust historians". "What I fear is that in the aftermath of the Gaza genocide, it will no longer be possible to continue teaching and researching the Holocaust in the same manner we did before," he wrote. "Because the Holocaust has been so relentlessly invoked by the State of Israel and its defenders as a cover-up for the crimes of the IDF, the study and remembrance of the Holocaust could lose its claim to be concerned with universal justice and retreat into the same ethnic ghetto in which it began its life at the end of World War II," he added.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store