HAL, BEL, Mazagon Dock among Antique's top defence picks as Rs 16 trillion order pipeline boosts outlook

Economic Times

11-06-2025

Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd
Bharat Electronics
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Mazagon Dock
PTC Industries
Sector Tailwinds: Orders, capex and indigenisation
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Riding on the back of India's massive Rs 16 trillion domestic defence procurement pipeline and an accelerated push for indigenisation, Hindustan Aeronautics HAL ), Bharat Electronics (BEL), and Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders have emerged as top stock picks in Antique Stock Broking's latest sector report.The brokerage sees these state-run giants as best positioned to capitalise on the strong order inflows and expanding manufacturing capacities amid India's intensified focus on defence self-reliance and modernisation.Antique remained bullish on HAL, highlighting its dominant position in the defence aerospace segment and a strong revenue outlook linked to modernisation plans by the Indian Air Force (IAF). The brokerage pointed to the opportunity for over 300 new aircraft orders over the next 10–15 years, including Tejas Mk-1A, Mk-II, and the fifth-generation AMCA jets.HAL's execution capacity, which had been constrained by delays in engine supply from GE, is expected to improve significantly. 'GE has delivered the first engine to HAL in the first quarter of FY26 and is expected to deliver 12 more in FY26,' the brokerage said, adding that 'consistent supply from GE can lead to IAF placing an incremental order for 97 Tejas Mk-1A aircrafts.'Antique values HAL at 40x FY27 estimated EPS, with a target price of Rs 6,545, up from its current market price of Rs 5,010.Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL), a long-time leader in defence electronics, is another preferred play. 'BEL is in a sweet spot given the sharp increase in spending on missile systems like QRSAM and MRSAM where BEL will act as a system integrator,' Antique said.A Rs 300 billion QRSAM order is expected to be finalised in the fourth quarter of FY26, with an additional Rs 270 billion in orders also expected, potentially taking total inflows beyond Rs 570 billion in FY26 alone. To support this, BEL is planning an annual capex of Rs 7–8 billion over the next 3–4 years.The brokerage maintained a 'buy' with a price target of Rs 422, valuing BEL at 45x FY27 estimated EPS.Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders has been highlighted as a key beneficiary of India's naval expansion, given its unmatched capability in building both submarines and large surface warships. A fresh order for three Scorpene-class submarines is expected shortly, which 'can potentially more than double the company's order book,' according to Antique.Antique also sees strong prospects in the P75I (Rs 700 billion) and P17B (Rs 700 billion) frigate programs. The brokerage has maintained a 'buy' on the stock, at a target price of Rs 3,858, citing the order book could grow to Rs 1.5 trillion by FY27—14 times its FY25 revenue. PTC Industries rounds off the top picks, with Antique praising the company's progress on its Strategic Material Technology Complex in Lucknow. Through subsidiary Aerolloys Technologies, PTC is developing one of the world's largest single-site titanium recycling and remelting facilities.Antique estimated a 10–20x revenue growth over the next five to six years. 'Given the high growth visibility and significant value addition with a potential of +50% EBITDA margin, PTC Industries is well poised to post a profit of Rs 9.4 billion in FY28 and Rs 17.3 billion in FY30 from a base of Rs 0.4 billion in FY24,' the brokerage noted.Antique underscored a structural opportunity unfolding in India's defence manufacturing ecosystem. With 75% of FY24–25's capital budget earmarked for domestic procurement, India has committed to 'Atmanirbharata' (self-reliance) not only as an import substitution measure but also as a strategic imperative.The Defence Acquisition Council has approved procurements worth Rs 8.5 trillion over FY23–25, nearly equal to approvals during the entire decade from FY12 to FY21. HAL, BEL, and Mazagon Dock are expected to be major beneficiaries of large finalisations in FY26, including orders for Tejas Mk-1A aircraft, Scorpene submarines, QRSAM missile systems, and advanced light helicopters.With strong revenue and earnings visibility, sector-wide capacity expansion, and increasing private sector involvement, Antique believes the Indian defence and aerospace sector is at an inflexion point.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)