Recent cloud bursts show — India needs early warning systems

Indian Express

14 hours ago

It is becoming increasingly evident that policymakers in the country need to do more to shield people, whether in the plains, mountains, or coastal areas, from the vagaries of the monsoon. This year, cloudbursts, flash floods, and landslides have caused havoc in parts of Northeast India, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and, most recently, in Jammu and Kashmir. Waterlogging and crumbling infrastructure have not only disrupted life and caused traffic congestion in urban centres, including cities such as Delhi, Bengaluru, and Mumbai, they have also taken a high toll of lives. The writing has been on the wall for at least a decade — most parts of the country need a drainage upgrade. This urban planning imperative is the easier of the monsoon-related challenges. Increasingly, it's also becoming evident that timely warning can reduce the loss of lives and minimise damage during extreme weather events. Anticipating nature's vagaries requires accurate and timely data and effective communication channels. Work on building such mechanisms has just begun in the country.
The loss of more than 60 lives in Jammu and Kashmir to cloudbursts in less than a week has exposed the frailties of the country's climate information system. The complex processes that go into the making of cloudbursts have exacerbated the challenges. The interaction between monsoon winds and cold winds combines with the idiosyncrasies of Himalayan topography to create huge clouds. In a region historically prone to cloudbursts, the effects of global warming seem to have been treacherous. When the clouds can no longer hold the water, they unleash rain bombs over relatively small areas. Meteorologists define a cloudburst as rain falling at a rate of 100 mm or more per hour over an area of about 30 sq km. Such small tracts often lack rainfall-measuring instruments. The effects of the downpour, however, are not localised — they trigger landslides and flash floods and cause destruction downstream. Theoretically, it is not impossible to forecast rainfall over a very small area, but it requires a dense network of weather instruments and computing capabilities. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is reportedly stepping up initiatives to fill information gaps as well as make maximum use of data.
The task of shielding people from the effects of extreme rainfall is, however, too enormous to be left to the IMD. Saving lives in fragile ecosystems will require coordination between the met office, scientists, planners, and local, state, and national-level authorities. For starters, detailed maps of cloudburst-prone zones that use historical data and satellite imagery could guide land-use plans. They could ensure construction and developmental activities are carefully regulated and climate-proofed in high-risk areas. It's an imperative that cannot be postponed.