Stocks usually rise by 10% a year. Those days may be over.

USA Today

5 hours ago

Americans are wise to invest in the stock market, we are told, because stocks have yielded historical gains of about 10% a year.
But not, perhaps, this year.
Many analysts predict that the S&P 500 index will end 2025 essentially flat, or with only meager gains.
In one June 25 roundup, Yahoo Finance charts several strategists with year-end projections that put the benchmark S&P index between 5,600 and 6,100. Those figures fall below, or only slightly above, where the S&P started the year, around 5,900.
Some forecasts range higher, and forecasters have been growing more bullish about American stocks in 2025. But anyone who predicts double-digit returns this year risks being branded an outlier.
If big investment firms expect the stock market to finish 2025 more or less where it started, how should armchair investors react? Is the investment landscape shifting beneath our feet?
First, let's explore the reasoning behind those gloomy forecasts.
Stocks opened high in 2025. Maybe too high.
The stock market opened strong in 2025. The broad S&P index sat near its all-time high, following two years of conspicuous growth.
That growth spurt, alone, was enough to seed caution in forecasters. A surging S&P means stock prices are relatively high. Some stocks are overpriced. Bargains are fewer. The index may not have that much room to grow.
'I believe that, given the strong returns over the past two years, some lower returns are expected,' said Eric Teal, chief investment officer at Comerica Bank.
Comerica's own projections call for the S&P 500 to end the year at 6,400, a number toward the high end of forecasts.
Wall Street prognosticators have been bearish on stocks in 2025 because of one overarching theme: uncertainty.
'It's all the volatile actors in our current economy,' said Catherine Valega, a certified financial planner near Boston. 'It's like you don't know from one day to the next: Do we have tariffs? Do we not have tariffs?'
It's hard to predict how President Trump's import taxes will affect prices, and thus, inflation. The trade war, coupled with Trump's immigration crackdown, could slow economic growth. Recession fears are heightened. The Federal Reserve may or may not ease interest rates in response.
'We're assuming that we sidestep a recession, that interest rate cuts are on the horizon, but not immediate,' Teal said, reflecting a common view on Wall Street. 'And so, there is an element of cautious optimism that I think is in the market, but a high degree of uncertainty and macro policy unknowns that will keep markets contained.'
Stock forecasters don't want to be wrong
There's another big reason, analysts say, why year-end forecasts for the S&P 500 are trending low: Forecasters tend to err on the conservative side.
'The analysts have historically kind of underestimated S&P 500 returns,' said Kristy Akullian, head of iShares investment strategy, Americas, at BlackRock. 'People don't want to stick their necks out with a bold prediction and be wrong.'
That impulse, she said, also explains why stock forecasts tend to bunch together. No one wants to stand out.
'It's hard being an outlier,' said David Meier, a senior analyst at Motley Fool.
Meier cites yet another reason why stock forecasters tend to aim low: 'Being negative, let's call it bearish, tends to get more clicks,' he said. Readers gravitate to distressing news about stocks.
So, stocks are having an off year. What can I do?
Now, let's move on to the practical question: If the S&P 500 might not gain much ground in 2025, what should ordinary investors do about it?
The easy answer, of course, is to do nothing.
Stock market projections for next month, or next year, shouldn't matter much to an investor who is in for the long haul, advisers say.
And that advice applies to just about everyone: If you aren't in for the long haul, experts advise, stocks might not be for you.
'If you need funds soon, don't have it invested,' said Randy Bruns, a certified financial planner in Naperville, Illinois. 'If you don't need the funds for 15 years, stop looking at the volatility.'
Market downturns tend to be brief. Recessions are shorter than they seem. Anyone who is saving for retirement, or for other long-term goals, can generally ride them out.
'If you have the luxury of being a long-term investor, be one,' Akullian said.
There is, however, a longer and more nuanced answer to the question of how to respond to those conservative projections for stocks in 2025.
A gloomy forecast for 2025 -- and for 2035
It involves this complicating factor: Stock market forecasts are also surprisingly conservative for 2035.
Vanguard, the investment firm, predicts the U.S. stock market as a whole will rise by an underwhelming 3.8% to 5.8% a year over the next 10 years. 'Growth' stocks, the likes of Nvidia and Amazon, are projected to rise by only 2.5% to 4.5%: not much faster than inflation.
Those forecasts are based on the idea that many U.S. stocks are overpriced, in essence, and trading above their real value.
In Vanguard's analysis, everyday investors who want the gaudy returns they have come to expect from American growth stocks would do well to look elsewhere: Global stocks. Small-cap American stocks, in companies with a lower market value. 'Value' stocks, trading below their intrinsic worth.
'I would say it's time to have a more balanced allocation,' said Teal of Comerica.
Bruns, the financial planner, suggests average investors should 'diversify across all the broad asset classes that should comprise a textbook portfolio.'
That doesn't mean you should sell all of your Alphabet stocks, experts say. But the time might be right to scrutinize your portfolio. Does it include foreign stocks? Small-cap stocks? Bonds?
If not, then you might consider rebalancing your portfolio to make it more diverse.
'The easiest way to do that, if you are a 401(k) contributor, is to change your future allocations,' Valega said. That way, you don't have to tinker with your current investments.
Not sure how to rebalance?
'Reach out to your adviser,' Valega said. 'That's what we're there for.'