Hong Kong's $32 billion pile of bad debt spurs talks to form ‘bad bank'
HONG KONG – The pile of non-performing loans at Hong Kong lenders has grown so large that some in the industry have discussed the creation of a 'bad bank' to soak up the financial hub's soured debt.
The talks between some of the city's biggest banks, described by people familiar with the matter, have been preliminary in nature and lenders would face significant hurdles before putting the idea into action.
Yet the discussions underline growing concern among industry insiders over a bad loan buildup.
Soured loans increased to US$25 billion (S$32 billion) at the end of March, or 2 per cent of the total and a two-decade high, Fitch Ratings estimates, based on Hong Kong Monetary Authority figures. That may climb to 2.3 per cent by year end, the biggest jump in Asia Pacific, and loan quality is likely to deteriorate further through 2026, according to the ratings company.
Hong Kong's banks are coming under increasing pressure to offload loans backed by real estate assets after rolling them over or amending the original terms in the past to avoid writedowns. The delay by some banks in recognizing impairments has helped mask even weaker underlying asset quality.
'We should be seeing more distressed sales – it's a little alarming that we're not,' said Jason Bedford, a former UBS Group analyst who made a name for predicting the troubles that hit Chinese regional banks in 2019.
Lenders including Hang Seng Bank and Bank of Communications recently engaged with advisory firms and held early-stage discussions about setting up a special vehicle to take their bad debt, people familiar with the matter said.
Top stories
Swipe. Select. Stay informed.
Singapore HSA launches anti-vaping checks near 5 institutes of higher learning
Singapore Over 600 Telegram groups in Singapore selling, advertising vapes removed by HSA
Business Singapore key exports surprise with 13% rebound in June amid tariff uncertainty
Business Market versus mission: What will Income Insurance choose?
Life First look at the new Singapore Oceanarium at Resorts World Sentosa
Opinion AI and education: We need to know where this sudden marriage is heading
Singapore Coffee Meets Bagel's Singpass check: Why I'll swipe right on that
Singapore Jail for man who fatally hit his daughter, 2, while driving van without licence
One of the proposed entities is modelled after China's distressed asset managers and could allow banks to recoup at least a portion of the loans, said the people. It's unclear how much traction the proposal has received among banks and Hong Kong regulators.
Hong Kong also narrowly averted a deeper crisis in June as banks after tense negotiations agreed to a record US$11 billion refinancing for troubled developer New World Development. Political and economic turmoil over the past few years have shook the city's real estate sector, where office vacancies are surging to a record.
'There's too much supply of commercial real estate, particularly office space, hence we continue to see Hong Kong banks' asset quality deterioration stemming from the sector this year,' said Savio Fan, an analyst at Fitch.
Still, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) said the banking sector's overall asset quality 'is manageable and provisions remain sufficient' even as its bad loan ratio edged up. The total capital ratio of locally-incorporated banks stood at 24.2 per cent at the end of March 2025, while the average liquidity coverage ratio of the major banks was 182.5 per cent, far above above international minimum requirements, according to the HKMA.
While Fitch predicts loan quality will continue to deteriorate, it has said the situation is manageable given that lenders have large buffers.
Hang Seng's credit impaired gross loans surged to HK$19.8 billion (S$3.2 billion) at the end of 2024, up from HK$1.08 billion a year ago. Impairments at Dah Sing Banking Group, whose unit was downgraded by Moody's Investors Service in June, more than doubled to HK$1.79 billion in 2024.
The city's largest bank, HSBC Holdings, had US$33.2 billion of exposure to Hong Kong commercial real estate at December 2024, of which about US$4.6 billion was credit impaired.
While the valuation of commercial real estate in Hong Kong has likely fallen more than 50 per cent in the last few years, they haven't 'really declined a lot' on property companies and bank books since there have been few transactions, according to Cusson Leung, chief investment officer at KGI Asia.
'It's a big dilemma for both the developers and the banks,' said Mr Leung. 'If a bank forces the sale of a commercial property at a 50 per cent discount, it would have implications on the valuations of other buildings and collateral and, under the current poor market sentiment toward commercial real state, this could have undesirable consequences.'
In the first half of 2025, HK$2.9 billion, or 20 per cent, out of a total of HK$14.8 billion in transactions of mortgage sales and assets were sold at a capital loss, according to data from Colliers International.
The HKMA said it monitors that banks have 'appropriate and timely loan classification and provisioning at all times' and subjects them to independent validation by external auditors.
The lenders are now at risk of taking a hit on their lending income as well as the Hong Kong interbank offered rate, a benchmark for loan rates, has collapsed. One-month Hibor has slumped to 1.1 per cent from 4.6 per cent end last year, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. Corporate lending has also been been weak.
Mr Fan at Fitch said he 'definitely sees some pressure' on net interest margins due to the drop in Hibor but at the same time, fee income looks 'quite strong' from wealth management.
For Mr Bedford, the situation for Hong Kong lenders is different from the troubled regional Chinese banks, which were using special-purpose vehicles to intentionally hide bad loans. Financial disclosures in Hong Kong have always been very 'market-based,' he said.
Ultimately, though, banks are trying to maintain the mark-to-market value of their property so they don't take huge impairment losses, he said, adding that there is a 'structural incentive' not to do anything that will create an immediate change to valuations.
'Hong Kong banks are going through a very textbook credit cycle,' said Mr Bedford. 'NPLs are going up, loan growth stalls, banks start to increase risk scoring standards and the economy slows.' BLOOMBERG
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Business Times
22 minutes ago
- Business Times
How reliable is the 60/40 portfolio in downturns? Adding private debt not a panacea
[SINGAPORE] A big argument in favour of an investment in private markets is that the traditional 60/40 balanced portfolio (60 per cent stocks, 40 per cent bonds) is no longer as reliable or robust as it traditionally was. The steep portfolio loss in 2022 when stocks and bonds fell at the same time – and each asset class by double digits – has likely scarred most investors. It is no coincidence that since that year, strategists and bankers have redoubled efforts to persuade investors to invest in assets that are less correlated with public markets. Institutions and private wealth advisers alike are pinning their hopes on private markets to drive not just overall portfolio returns but also dampen risk. BlackRock chairman Larry Fink in his 2025 letter wrote that the future standard portfolio may have the allocation of 50/30/20 – that is, 50 per cent stocks, 30 per cent bonds and 20 per cent in private assets such as infrastructure, real estate and private credit. 'Generations of investors have done well following (the 60/40) approach, owning a mix of the entire market rather than individual securities. But as the global financial system continues to evolve, the classic 60/40 portfolio may no longer fully represent true diversification,' he wrote. The big question dogging the 60/40 method is not so much that of the risk and return of equities, but rather of bonds. Have bonds lost their ability to diversify? It is significant that the three types of private assets Fink cites are those that come closest to bonds. Infrastructure, real estate and private credit all generate a yield. Private assets also show lower correlation with public markets. Retail investors are able to access listed infrastructure and real estate investment trusts. Private debt is currently confined to accredited investors. And, in today's environment, there may be reasons for caution in private debt, which I will touch on shortly. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Strategists are not calling for the scrapping of the 60/40 portfolio, but to enhance its diversification benefits. Still, some fund managers maintain that the 60/40 approach continues to prove its value even without private markets, and the 2022 experience was an outlier. Morningstar noted that 2022 was the single year over a 150-year period that bonds failed to provide diversification benefit in a downturn. Could it happen again? 60/40 portfolio's track record Erin Browne, Pimco managing director and portfolio manager, said that the 60/40 portfolio has proven its resiliency – not just over the past decade but over more than 30 years. Browne, based in Pimco's Newport Beach office, looks after the firm's multi-asset strategies. Pimco manages more than US$2 trillion in assets. 'Our portfolio is up by around 10 per cent year to date, and the (reference) 60/40 is up by 8 per cent. It really has proven to be a good core ballast of delivering portfolio returns over different market environments and histories. This year is no different,' she said. Pimco's data shows that since 1990, a global 60/40 portfolio has returned just 0.7 per cent less than global stocks on an annualised basis, but with 37 per cent less volatility. 'The US stock-bond correlation has gotten more negative over recent months, with the one-year correlation dropping from 0 to minus 15 per cent. This is particularly valuable in an uncertain macro environment; both stocks and bonds can benefit from a soft landing amid central bank rate cuts,' she added. 'If growth deteriorates faster than expected, high-quality bonds provide a ballast. Finally, the long-term track record and easy-to-understand benefits of a 60/40 allocation allows investors to stay invested rather than attempt to time the market, which typically causes underperformance.' Browne said inflows into Pimco's multi-asset offerings are not just from retirement savers, but also more broadly from investors looking to build a 'strong, stable bellwether' as their core portfolio. 'Flows are really coming from investors looking to create the core of their asset allocation strategy, where they're able to participate in continued upside in equities, and also have some diversification.' She believes volatility is likely to be elevated given the geopolitical and macroeconomic shifts, from a 'unique unipolar world' to a multi-polar world, and from global cooperation to fragmentation. 'There will be friction in that change… Growth is also slowing on a global basis, and that creates pockets for disruption within global markets and equities, which creates more volatility.' Morningstar research found that the poor performance of the 60/40 portfolio in 2022 was due to a painful bear market in bonds that actually began around 2020. In its analysis of how the 60/40 portfolio performed over 150 years, it found that the crash of the 2020s was the only one where the decline of the 60/40 portfolio was more painful than that of an all-stock portfolio. That is, while the deepest drawdown of the 60/40 portfolio was shallower than the all-equity portfolio, it has taken the 60/40 portfolio longer to recover. In the 2020s, the downturn in equities – brought on by the Ukraine war, higher inflation and supply shortages – coincided with a bear market in bonds. 'While the stock market recovered to its previous high in September 2024, the bond market has not yet fully emerged from underwater. This decline was so severe that it prevented the 60/40 portfolio from returning to its previous high until June 2025 – marking the only time in the past 150 years that the 60/40 portfolio experienced more pain than the stock market,' it said. 'Nonetheless, even in this once-in-150-years bond bear market, the depth of the decline experienced by a 60/40 portfolio was less than that of either the stock market or the bond market alone.' Pimco's Browne argued that the starting point of bond yields is key for an investor. 'I don't think fixed income as a risk diversifier is dead. There's real potential for fixed income to continue to deliver not only on income return but also diversification,' she noted. 'In 2020 inflation ran very high, and the starting points of yields were exceptionally low in a negative or zero-rate environment. But where we are today is quite different. The starting point of yields today provides a really nice cushion to protect portfolios in risk-off events, with 10-year yields exceeding 4 per cent. Yields tend to be very highly correlated with the expected return of the asset over the next five years.' Caution on private credit What about private credit as a bond proxy? Despite an attractive yield, it is not a panacea for returns or lower risk. There is also reason for caution when almost every private banker or sales person trots out private debt offerings. According to an article in the Financial Times, the GIC itself is cautious as the asset class is untested in a major credit default cycle. GIC chief investment officer Bryan Yeo reportedly said the investment company is 'raising the bar in terms of further deployment in the private credit space', adding: 'We're now at a part of the cycle where we feel that spreads are a lot tighter, and valuations are also higher.' Pimco is wary as well. It noted in its mid-year report that credit spreads remained tight relative to historic averages despite signs of 'elevated secular recession potential', which reflects some complacency in public and private credit markets. Private credit, it said, is vulnerable to broad risk asset repricing due to its 'large allocations' into technology and artificial intelligence disruptors. 'Amid limited fiscal space, a genuine credit default cycle – unlike the recent 'buy the dip' era – may unfold for the first time in years, catching many investors unprepared… We express caution in areas of private corporate credit where capital formation has outpaced investable opportunities, leading to potential disappointment.'
CNA
2 hours ago
- CNA
Euro gains as investors cautiously welcome US-EU trade deal
NEW YORK: Investors cautiously embraced news of a trade deal on Sunday (Jul 27) between the US and European Union that is expected to bring clarity for companies and some certainty to markets ahead of US President Donald Trump's Friday tariffs deadline. The euro rose against the US dollar, up 0.27 percent at US$1.177. The currency also gained 0.2 percent against both the pound and the Japanese yen. Trump announced the United States has struck a framework trade deal with the EU that includes a 15 percent tariff on EU goods entering the US and significant EU purchases of US energy and military equipment. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the deal includes "cars, semiconductors and pharmas." The deal is similar to parts of the framework agreement the US clinched with Japan last week. "It's really in line with the Japan deal, and I assume investors will view it positively as they viewed the Japan deal," said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments in New Vernon, New Jersey. Optimism over easing trade tensions broadly helped push US stocks to record highs last week and lifted European shares to their highest since early June. Trump's Apr 2 "Liberation Day" announcement of sweeping global tariffs sent stocks plunging in the immediate aftermath, due to spiking fears about a recession that have since faded. "I don't think equities in particular needed much of an excuse to rally and now they've got one," said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone in London. Still, investors have been bracing for increased volatility heading into Aug 1, which the US has set as a deadline for raising levies on a broad swath of trading partners. "We will need to see how long the sides stick to the deal. From a market perspective, it is reassuring in the sense that having a deal is better than not having a deal," Eric Winograd, chief economist at investment management firm AllianceBernstein, said about the EU agreement.
Straits Times
2 hours ago
- Straits Times
How SMEs can strengthen cybersecurity and protect the bottom line
As cyber threats grow, small and medium-sized enterprises can fortify their defences and ensure financial flexibility with comprehensive support from Singtel and GXS Bank With the right training and financial tools, SMEs can strengthen their cyber defences and stay agile in managing cash flow. It has never been easier for cybercriminals to launch attacks on your business. Today, threat actors can easily access dark web marketplaces and purchase ready-made ransomware to cripple operations and drain finances. In the first half of this year, Nordstellar reported a 49 per cent increase in global ransomware cases exposed on the dark web. Among the hardest hit were small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Here in Singapore, the Cyber Security Agency of Singapore (CSA) shared that SMEs made up 84 per cent of cybersecurity victims in 2023. Yet, their survey revealed that two in three companies had yet to implement basic cybersecurity measures. Nearly 60 per cent of surveyed companies said they lacked the knowledge and experience, while 39 per cent were held back by a lack of resources and manpower. As 5G mobile connectivity fuels digital growth across Asia-Pacific – projected to add nearly US$130 billion (over S$160 billion) to the region's economy by 2030 – businesses are unlocking new opportunities. At the same time, this expanded digital footprint widens the attack surface, leaving companies more vulnerable to cyber threats driven by artificial intelligence. To help SMEs overcome these challenges, Singtel has made enterprise-grade cybersecurity accessible and hassle-free with its two-pronged approach – Singtel Cyber Elevate and Fortinet Unified Threat Management. Elevate your cybersecurity know-how When a cyberattack strikes, the difference between survival and catastrophe often comes down to how well your team is prepared to recognise, respond to and recover from it. Singtel Cyber Elevate is a comprehensive training and cyber incident management programme that helps SMEs build this resilience through mentorship and practical guidance. It is conducted by Mr Wilson Tan, Singtel Enterprise's senior director of Cyber Consulting, Education & Professional Service, who brings over 25 years of experience in telecommunications and leads Singtel's Cyber Security Institute – a top facility for cyber resiliency training in Asia. With government subsidies of up to 90 per cent, the programme is highly accessible to eligible SMEs. Singtel's Cyber Elevate programme helps SMEs in Singapore strengthen their cybersecurity defences through hands-on training, expert support and cyber incident management. PHOTO: SINGTEL Local facilities management company Advancer took part in the programme's two-day workshop and underwent a cybersecurity posture assessment, akin to a full-body scan to uncover gaps in the company's cyber defences. 'We were commended for having good general awareness around phishing attempts and safe browsing habits among our staff,' says Mr Gary Chin, Advancer's chief executive officer. 'However, the assessment identified gaps in formal documentation, escalation paths and consistent response protocols.' Trainers worked directly with the Advancer team to streamline workflows, establish clearer protocols and tighten security across their entire operation. Through realistic cyberattack simulations, the team experienced first-hand the intense pressure of phishing and ransomware attacks without the devastating consequences. It was a strong wake-up call. Mr Chin says: 'We realised that even small teams can be high-value targets due to the sensitive data that we handle. We also learned that having a response plan is crucial to reducing chaos during a real incident.' The Singtel Cyber Elevate programme also helps SMEs strengthen compliance with legal obligations, such as the Personal Data Protection Act, and equips employees with skills to manage stakeholders during a data breach. SMEs will also receive legal and forensics support for a year from law firm Drew & Napier, and cyber incident response company Blackpanda. Mr Gary Chin, CEO of facilities management company Advancer, says the Singtel Cyber Elevate programme helped the team identify security gaps and embed cybersecurity into their daily operations. PHOTO: ADVANCER 'The programme provided clear guidance and practical insights that were easy to understand and apply,' says Mr Chin. 'Cybersecurity is now included in our budgeting and has become a core part of our operations.' Says Singtel Enterprise's Mr Tan: 'It is important to develop an assumed breach mindset to better respond and recover from cyber breaches. Singtel Cyber Elevate seeks to be that safety net that allows companies to build cyber resiliency against the impact of breaches affecting organisations.' But training your team is just the first line of defence. Your network infrastructure needs fortress-level protection too. All-in-one network protection With employees using multiple devices, your network faces more potential entry points for cybercriminals to exploit. A single unprotected device can compromise your entire company. To shut attackers out, the Singtel-Fortinet Unified Threat Management system provides comprehensive protection for your business network. SMEs that adopt this solution will be eligible for up to 50 per cent funding on qualifying costs through the Government's Productivity Solutions Grant . Developed by Singtel and global cybersecurity leader Fortinet, this solution helps safeguard every device connected to your network, from office computers and laptops to wireless devices, IP phones and even employees' personal devices. Acting as a central command hub, it blocks threats before they breach your systems, secures wireless access, and protects essential communications like emails and voice calls. It also fine-tunes your network based on your business priorities, so your most critical applications can run smoothly and securely. Everything is managed through a single platform, making it easy and hassle-free for any business to stay protected. More on this topic Navigating uncertainty: How your new business can adapt and grow with the right support Securing financial health with GXS bank For SMEs, digital security is only half the battle – a healthy cash flow is just as critical. For many business owners, having access to financial support can be a leg-up as they build and grow resilient companies. Business owners such as sole proprietors and start-ups often face hurdles when opening business accounts or applying for loans. High fees, strict requirements and lack of collateral can limit access to funds, right when these businesses need them most. GXS Bank built its GXS Biz Account to help address these challenges head-on. The GXS Biz Account offers no minimum balance or monthly fees, and daily interest rates from 1.68 per cent a year. SMEs enjoy a clear separation of personal and business finances, and they can receive and make unlimited free payments through PayNow and Fast. New customers who sign up for a GXS Biz Account with the promo code 'SG60' will receive $60 in cash. Visit this link to find out more . For businesses that need an extra boost, the GXS FlexiLoan Biz offers up to $150,000 in unsecured financing with interest from 4.99 per cent a year (Effective Interest Rate at 9.32 per cent a year). There are no annual or early repayment fees, and SMEs have full flexibility to repay early without additional costs. You can also get loans starting from $1,000 in a matter of minutes. GXS Bank also offers up to $1 million in access to working capital loans, invoice financing and purchase order financing through GXS Capital , its wholly-owned subsidiary. This enables SMEs to unlock funds based on outstanding invoices – helping them smooth out cash flow and invest in growth without waiting for payment cycles to clear. By easing day-to-day financial pressure, GXS Bank empowers SMEs to act quickly when opportunities arise. Whether you are protecting your business from ransomware or scaling up with agility, Singtel and GXS Bank offer the end-to-end protection and flexibility that SMEs need in a high-risk, high-potential world. Find out more about the Singtel Cyber Elevate programme here . Disclaimer: GXS Business Banking consists of products and services provided by GXS Bank and GXS Capital, which are licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. GXS Bank and GXS Capital are separate entities and are not associated with the businesses of SPH, Grab, Singtel, or their entities. Approval of your application is subject to the receipt of all supporting documents, review, and processing time. Terms and Conditions apply. Deposit Insurance Scheme: Singapore dollar deposits of non-bank depositors are insured by the Singapore Deposit Insurance Corporation, for up to S$100,000 in aggregate per depositor per Scheme member by law. Foreign currency deposits, dual currency investments, structured deposits and other investment products are not insured. Effective Interest Rate (EIR) is calculated based on an average loan amount of S$10,000 with a 24-month repayment period, from 1 Jan 2025 to 1 Jan 2027.
