Sensex, Nifty outlook for June 23–27: Bullish breakout ahead?
The Indian stock market wrapped up a bullish week (June 16–20), with the Sensex closing at 82,408.17 and the Nifty 50 ending at 25,112.40 — both comfortably above key pivot levels. The rally was powered by strong FII inflows, easing RBI provisioning norms for infrastructure loans, declining bond yields, and a dip in volatility and gold prices.
Market sentiment got a further boost as the Reserve Bank of India relaxed its earlier draft rule, now requiring just 1% provisioning for under-construction infra loans versus the proposed 5%. This move notably lifted banking and financial stocks.
Additionally, easing tensions in the Middle East added to optimism. While geopolitical concerns remain, the US President's statement to delay military involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict hinted at potential diplomatic engagement.
Market Performance Recap:
Sensex rose 1.5% this week.
Nifty 50 added 1.3%.
FIIs invested ₹8,709 crore; DIIs added ₹12,635 crore.
Global indices, however, underperformed, with the Dow down 1% and the Nasdaq flat.
Key Drivers for Next Week (June 23–27):
US Economic Data: Focus on GDP and PCE inflation.
Geopolitical Developments: Monitoring Middle East tensions and the US-China 90-day truce deadline.
Monsoon Progress in India
FII/DII Activity and Crude Oil Prices
Monthly Derivatives Expiry Volatility
Technical Outlook:
Resistance: 25,250. A breakout may lead to 25,600–25,800.
Support: 24,850–24,800 zone. Breakdown below 24,600 may trigger further correction.
Indicators: Nifty is trading above both 21-day and 55-day EMAs, signaling strong momentum.
Investor Strategy:
Experts advise a stock-specific approach. Look for strength in banking, auto, realty, and IT sectors. Avoid heavy exposure to FMCG, energy, and mid/small caps until clearer signals emerge.
Traders are also urged to be cautious of false breakouts near 25,200, especially ahead of monthly expiry. Monitor both global developments and technical resistance levels closely.
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