Supply to remain tight for affordable single-family homes
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A new report forecasting real estate resale activity in Canada, including Calgary, reveals that prices are expected to increase by the end of the year amid economic uncertainty related to tariffs. That will dampen demand somewhat, but prices still will be boosted by a lack of affordable choice in most markets. That's especially so in Calgary, the Royal LePage Q1 2025 Home Price Update and Market Forecast shows, where the average price is expected to climb three per cent by year's end over 2024 to nearly $710,000.
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That's among the lowest percentage growth forecasts in the report, which predicts the national average price will climb five per cent to nearly $861,000.
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'We're in a more stable market than we were,' says Corinne Lyall, Broker/owner of Royal LePage Benchmark in Calgary. To that end, first quarter data from the Calgary Real Estate Board shows the market exhibited balanced conditions between supply and demand in all four housing segments.
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What's more, sales had fallen 17 per cent yet to date ending March 31, while inventory had increased 83 per cent. And the benchmark price — the cost of the typical home in Calgary — had just gained 0.1 per cent year over year to reach $587,709.
Indeed, it's a good news story for buyers, who had faced much more challenging conditions a year ago, and it's largely reflected in the forecast for all of Canada's major markets, says Vancouver real estate agent Adil Dinani, spokesperson for Royal LePage West.
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'If you're a buyer and you do have confidence in your employment situation, the market is pretty attractive,' he says. The Royal LePage report reveals that the average price of a home in Canada was up 1.5 per cent year over year in Canada — an increase below inflation — to $829,400 in the first quarter (Jan. 1 to March 31) of 2025.
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At the same time many markets are seeing more supply than in recent years.
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'For the first time in 10 years, we have more than 16,000 listings in the Greater Vancouver Area,' he says.
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Calgary buyers, too, have more choice, especially in the city's condo market.
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'Our rental market is growing,' says Lyall, noting the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. data from last fall shows vacancy among purpose-built rentals climbing to 4.8 per cent from the year before at 1.4 per cent.
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'People have more choice, and so they tend to rent instead of buying a condo,' Lyall notes, explaining why the housing segment — the least costly of all types — has seen a drop in demand. Condominium apartment resales fell 29 per cent YTD, the most of any segment.
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Yet the market remains tight for the most in-demand housing type — single-family detached homes, at least affordably priced ones.
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The benchmark price for a single-family home in Calgary, as of March 31, was about $760,000, CREB statistics from the first quarter show.
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