Indias Volatility Index Dips on Easing Tariff Concerns, Rate Cut Hopes
Good morning, this is Chiranjivi Chakraborty, an equities reporter in Mumbai. Local traders are set to start the day on the backfoot following the selloff on Wall Street and a choppy trend in regional markets. Till India's trade deal with the US is sealed, big moves could likely be limited to companies announcing quarterly numbers. Tech Mahindra's results later in the day will be closely watched after underwhelming numbers from TCS and HCL Technologies have further soured the outlook for the IT sector.
Volatility cools on tariff relief, rate cut hopes
India's 30-day ahead volatility — often called the fear index — has declined to its lowest level since April 2024, reflecting growing investor belief that President Donald Trump's tariff threats are largely rhetorical and aimed at negotiating. Meanwhile, local sentiment is getting a lift after the RBI Governor signaled Tuesday that the central bank will continue to cut interest rates if inflation eases or growth slows.
Expanding valuations, shrinking returns
Valuations in the BSE 500 index have stretched since June 20, according to analysts at Ambit. They point out that around 43% of the index's stocks trade at more than five times their price-to-sales ratio, compared with about 31% seen during the peak of the 2007 bull market. As a result, median returns have started to shrink. Ambit also warns that inflows into mutual funds may come under pressure, especially as returns from some of the largest small- and mid-cap funds begin to moderate.
Ola's long journey to recovery
After losing over $5 billion in market value from its peak, Ola Electric's latest quarterly results brought some relief. But the e-scooter maker needs to deliver on the bullish tone struck during its recent earnings call. HSBC analysts see a pragmatic approach in the company's outlook and execution strategy, but warn that most of the potential gains are already priced in. Analyst opinions are split: three recommend buying, three suggest selling, and two advise holding. The consensus points to a modest 6% return over the next year.
Three great reads from Bloomberg today:
HCL Technologies may have delivered a weaker-than-expected first-quarter performance, but there's still reason for optimism. According to Jefferies, the company's newfound status as the top revenue earner in the IT sector could help it maintain a valuation premium over larger rivals such as Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services. What's more, HCL has raised its growth outlook for fiscal 2026 to 3%-5% — the highest among India's top five IT services firms, Jefferies adds.
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--With assistance from Ashutosh Joshi, Alex Gabriel Simon and Kartik Goyal.
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Mint
3 hours ago
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