David Crisafulli came out of Cyclone Alfred looking like a leader. His real danger lies within the LNP
Leading through a natural disaster is a rite of passage for a Queensland leader. There's also little anyone can do to prepare. It's a brutal 'learn on the job' experience that requires difficult calls with imperfect information.
Handled the right way – with calm and sincerity, the right ratios of strength and compassion – the experience can define a premier. Floundering politicians have walked out of the briefing room at the emergency services complex at Kedron as beloved leaders.
Anna Bligh's popularity climbed 35 points after the 2011 Brisbane floods. Her tearful 'we are Queenslanders' address is still talked about by, as she put it then, 'the people they breed tough north of the border'.
Crisafulli appears to have a natural effect in these situations that his predecessor, Steven Miles, only found too late in last year's nothing-to-lose election state campaign. Miles's first task as premier was to lead the response to Tropical Cyclone Jasper in north Queensland. There was little to fault in that response, but the lack of emotion or animation meant there was little to remember about it either.
As Tropical Cyclone Alfred approached, Crisafulli had a few missteps. His comments that people should stock up on canned food and bottled water might have contributed to some of the panic buying in the early part of last week, when even Heinz and San Pellegrino were stripped from the shelves.
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And the response itself left questions about the state's disaster management. People in Hervey Bay say they were not prepared for flooding that hit the town. Residents near Brisbane's suburban creeks were sent 'emergency alerts' by police about potential flash flooding on Monday morning, several hours after the creek heights had peaked.
While the premier's office has sought to portray his approach as a break from Covid-era edicts – a champion of devolved decision-making and personal responsibility – the reality is more nuanced. The government closed the schools on Thursday and then gave those able the green light to reopen on Monday. The idea this is radically different to past approaches is simply untrue.
Regardless, Crisafulli is a premier with an enhanced personal brand after Alfred. He has been lauded for having a rare characteristic prized by leaders – the ability to speak with authority and authenticity at the same time.
But there was also something else that contributed to the sense that Crisafulli had a strong week. Something that wasn't clear until Wednesday, when parliament resumed, and the premier's sidekick, the deputy premier, Jarrod Bleijie, returned to his hip.
Bleijie is becoming increasingly influential in the LNP's first Queensland government in a decade. He is a politician with a compulsive fighting instinct and comes across as brash. In parliament this week, Bleijie stood up and made truck honking noises.
The deputy premier also has close control over the LNP's parliamentary strategy, which has at times appeared to focus on gleefully battering political opponents rather than governing with anything resembling maturity.
Behind the scenes, moderates say the deputy premier's instincts risk running the government into unnecessary trouble.
The partnership between Crisafulli and Bleijie is central to harmony between the LNP's once-warring factions. Crisafulli's closest allies are moderates (though he stays out of much of the internal politicking). Insiders say Bleijie and his allies are instigating policy fights the government would be better advised to avoid.
Crisafulli key to re-election in 2028 is to show the public – especially Brisbane voters who have been wary of the LNP since Campbell Newman – a different sort of conservative government.
And it has not gone unnoticed, especially within LNP ranks, that Crisafulli has amplified his personal appeal this week with what is being viewed as mature management of the emergency response, with his attack dog mostly absent from his side.
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