TCU at Iowa State odds, picks and predictions
Nathan Beighle
USA TODAY Sports
The No. 8 Iowa State Cyclones (17-5, 7-4 Big 12) welcome the TCU Horned Frogs (12-10, 5-6) to Hilton Coliseum from Ames, Iowa, Saturday. Tip is set for noon ET (ESPN+). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's college basketball odds around the TCU vs. Iowa Stateodds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
Iowa State enters on a 3-game losing streak, 2 of which (Arizona and Kansas State) came against unranked teams at the time. The most recent loss was a 69-52 setback at the No. 17 Kansas Jayhawks Monday, closing as a 3-point underdog with the Under (146) hitting. The Cyclones are 2-4 straight up and against the spread (ATS) in their last 6 games. Iowa State is 12-10 ATS on the season and is led by G Curtis Jones (17.4 point per game).
The Horned Frogs knocked off the West Virginia Mountaineers 65-60, covering as 1.5-point home favorites Wednesday with a low Under (128) still cashing. G Vasean Allette had a double-double (22 points, 11 boards), while G Noah Reynolds added 20 points -- that's 42 of the Horned Frogs' 65 points. TCU has won 2 in a row but is 2-3 in its last 5. The Frogs are 2-3 ATS in that span, including 0-3 ATS as underdogs. They are 8-14 ATS overall.
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TCU at Iowa State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:28 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML) : TCU +800 (bet $100 to win $800) | Iowa State -1400 (bet $1,400 to win $100)
: TCU +800 (bet $100 to win $800) | Iowa State -1400 (bet $1,400 to win $100) Against the spread : TCU +15.5 (-110) | Iowa State -15.5 (-110)
: TCU +15.5 (-110) | Iowa State -15.5 (-110) Over/Under (O/U): 137.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
TCU at Iowa State picks and predictions
Prediction
Iowa State 77, TCU 57
PASS.
Iowa State (-1400) is far too expensive to play as a massive home favorite. TCU (+800), which has lost 8 of 9 away from home -- either on the road or a neutral court -- isn't worth a play even as a sizable road underdog.
BET IOWA STATE -15.5 (-110).
The Cyclones haven't performed well as of late, but they have covered consistently as a massive favorite. In their last 6 games as a favorite of 8 or more, they are 5-1 ATS. Of those games that were at home, they are 3-1 ATS. Iowa State has allowed 59 or fewer points in 3 of its last 5 at home, so it should defend well enough to separate itself.
The Horned Frogs have scored 68 or fewer points in 5 straight and 61 or fewer in 3 of those 5. They are 1-2 ATS in their last 3 games as double-digit underdogs. TCU lost to No. 5 Houston by 19 earlier in the season on the road, and this battle should mirror that one.
TAKE IOWA STATE -15.5 (-110).
BET UNDER 137.5 (-110).
If there's one thing both sides can agree on, it is the Under. Iowa State has gone Under in 2 straight games and in 5 of its last 7. The Cyclones are 10-12 O/U on the season, scoring 61 or fewer points in their last 2 outings.
TCU takes that to the next level, having gone 6-15-1 O/U on the season, including a current streak of 5 Unders in a row. The Horned Frogs have allowed 60 or fewer points in 2 straight and have only allowed 75 or more points 5 times this season.
Considering these trends, BET UNDER 137.5 (-110).
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