RBA rate call extraordinaire Rory Robertson makes his last prediction
And as 32 of 36 professional market economists surveyed by The Australian Financial Review found out this week, it can be incredibly humbling. The RBA's shock decision to hold the cash rate totally wrong-footed most of these experts, leaving them scrambling to explain what happened.

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Perth Now
7 hours ago
- Perth Now
Aussie dollar climbs to 9-month high
The Australian dollar rose to a yearly high on Friday and could break through a key barrier on a US-China trade deal or higher than expected inflation. Australia's dollar jumped to a nine month high of 66.24 US cents on Friday, before slipping to 65.63 cents during Monday's trading. But in its latest trading note, the Commonwealth Bank says the Australian dollar surge could continue this week, as the US continues to announce trading deals following a temporary pause in its tariffs. 'AUD/USD will likely extend its gains this week if US trade developments are perceived to be positive and risk sentiment improves and more trade deals can be announced ahead of the 1 August deadline,' CBA wrote. The Aussie dollar has bit a new high for the year as Donald Trump announces new trade deals. NewsWire / Nicholas Eagar Credit: NewsWire The big four bank estimates the global effective tariff rate will stand around 20 per cent from August 1. 'The US may announce more trade deals this week ahead of the 1 August deadline and/or an extension to the US-China trade truce, supporting risk sentiment,' CBA wrote. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore highlights positive headlines out of the US that could help the Australian dollar. 'Whether the AUD/USD can extend those gains will likely depend on fresh tariff headlines, and inflation and jobs data in the US,' he said. The US and China will meet in Stockholm on Monday, aimed at tackling longstanding economic disputes between the two countries. The meeting in Sweden, led by US treasury secretary Scott Bessent and China vice premier He Lifeng, comes after the previous 90 day pause on tariffs in June. In June both countries announced more than 100 per cent tariffs on each other in a tit-for-tat escalation between world's two largest economies. This truce will end on August 12, and a failure to reach an agreement will send global supply chains into turmoil as both countries face tariffs of more than 100 per cent. RBA governor Michele Bullock explained why the central bank held rates in July. Photo: NewsWire/ Gaye Gerard Credit: News Corp Australia Domestically a higher than expected inflation number could also see the Australian dollar jump. On Wednesday the Australian Bureau of Statistics will announce the CPI reading for the second quarter of this year, with any rise above 0.6 per cent for the quarter putting future rate cuts in doubt. The March quarter inflation figure was 2.4 per cent. NED-9108-Monthly-Inflation-Indicator AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said a lot of future rate cuts will come down to the CPI print. 'If the CPI is in line or just a little bit higher than the RBA forecast of 2.6 per cent rise in the trimmed mean for the year until June 30 then I think we will get a rate cut,' he said. 'But if it is 2.9 or even 2.8 then the RBA board might think lets wait a little longer.' Mr Sycamore told NewsWire the Aussie dollar won't run until later in the week, on the back of CPI data in Australia and jobs data out of the US on Friday. 'If there is a 4.3 per cent print, it gives the Aussie dollar the green light to push towards the mid 66s,' he said. At the July RBA monetary board meeting, the central bank shocked markets by holding the official cash rate at 3.85 per cent on the back of monthly inflation and jobs figures being stronger than expected. At the time governor Michele Bullock said the central bank could wait for the June quarterly figures to be released. 'Recent monthly CPI indicator data – which can be volatile and does not cover all items in the CPI – were broadly consistent with this expectation,' the RBA board said.

AU Financial Review
8 hours ago
- AU Financial Review
‘Can't sit on the sidelines': WA government preparing for GST fight
The West Australian government is mulling a national campaign to defend its favourable GST deal, vowing not to be a passive observer as pressure mounts on the federal government to overhaul the system. Despite publicly declaring its confidence that the federal government would not unwind the 2018 deal that boosted the state's share of the GST carve-up, the West Australian government is weighing up a campaign ahead of the Productivity Commission's 2026 review, The Australian Financial Review understands.

AU Financial Review
8 hours ago
- AU Financial Review
‘We are not Luddites': AFR readers react to AI productivity boost
Almost 75 per cent of readers polled by The Australian Financial Review support a push by the Productivity Commission and business to embrace artificial intelligence as a way to lift productivity and boost the economy, but almost half do not support union involvement in AI regulation. Productivity Commission chairwoman Danielle Wood is recommending the Albanese government overhaul company tax, speed up planning approvals for infrastructure projects and embrace artificial intelligence to lift the economy out of stagnation. She said Australian full-time workers would be at least $14,000 better off by 2035 if productivity growth was boosted.