Explained: Why US-Israel Should Be Wary Of An Iranian Regime Change

NDTV

4 days ago

New Delhi:
The United States launched coordinated airstrikes against Iran's nuclear facilities on Sunday. The targets included the underground uranium enrichment site at Fordow, the centrifuge production centre at Natanz, and critical nuclear infrastructure at Isfahan. US President Donald Trump declared the operation a "spectacular military success." He said that the targeted sites, described by US intelligence as central to Iran's nuclear programme, had been "completely and totally obliterated."
Tehran maintains that its nuclear ambitions are strictly civilian, rooted in energy production and medical research. Iran's atomic programme, which accelerated following Washington's 2018 withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), has been a persistent flashpoint between Tehran and Washington.
The rapid escalation between Iran and the US revives a deeper memory. Seventy-two years ago, in August 1953, the US and the United Kingdom orchestrated a covert operation to depose Iran's democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh.
How US Toppled A Democratic Government
Mossadegh had come to power in 1951 on promises of nationalising the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, which was then under British control. The UK government, alarmed by the potential loss of strategic energy assets, found an eager partner in the US, which was increasingly concerned about the spread of Soviet influence during the Cold War.
By mid-1953, US President Dwight Eisenhower had authorised a CIA-led operation to depose Mossadegh. Kermit Roosevelt Jr, the CIA officer in charge, entered Iran via Iraq in July and coordinated a wide-ranging network of army officers, mob leaders, and political operatives. Disinformation campaigns, including fake communist propaganda to discredit Mossadegh's Tudeh Party, played a key role.
On August 19, 1953, pro-Shah forces stormed the Radio Tehran station and broadcast false reports of Mossadegh's resignation. The broadcast sparked mass confusion and helped the coup's momentum.
The Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who had fled to Italy, returned to Iran days later to reclaim the throne with US and British backing. For the next 26 years, he ruled as a pro-Western monarch, overseeing significant economic modernisation while presiding over severe political repression via SAVAK, the feared intelligence agency.
The CIA formally acknowledged its role in the coup in a declassified 2013 document. It stated that the overthrow of Mossadegh was a "CIA-directed act of US foreign policy," conceived and executed at the highest levels of government.
The 1953 coup planted seeds of lasting suspicion towards Western intentions. It fed directly into the anti-imperialist ideology that would characterise the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which overthrew the Shah and installed Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini as Supreme Leader.
Following the revolution, Iran and Iraq plunged into an eight-year war beginning in 1980. During the preceding decades, Iran's Imperial Air Force, developed in close partnership with the United States, was among the most advanced in the region. By the mid-1970s, Iran had become a forward-operating base for American and Western equipment, including massive stockpiles of US munitions.
But the revolution upended that order. The air force's leadership was decimated by purges. As the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF) struggled to maintain operations, many of its early strikes against Iraq in 1980 relied on weapons bought in the 1970s.
Consequences Of Regime Change
These foreign-imposed coups, proxy wars, and covert operations now form the basis of the Iranian government's interpretation of current events. Any suggestion of US-Israeli plans to unseat the Islamic Republic recalls for many Iranians not only the 1953 coup, but also the US-led interventions in Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan. All began with promises of liberation, but none ended in peace.
Trump's stance towards Tehran has not yet included a formal endorsement of regime change. Still, officials close to the Israeli government have hinted that toppling Iran's leadership remains a long-term strategic objective. Some Israeli commentators have compared Iran's current leadership to Saddam Hussein's regime, implying that military action may be both necessary and inevitable.
In Iraq, the fall of Saddam Hussein led to years of sectarian violence and the rise of ISIS. In Afghanistan, the Taliban were ousted in 2001 only to return to power in 2021. Libya's post-Gaddafi trajectory has witnessed civil war.
In each case, American military intervention failed to produce the democratic, stable regimes that were promised. Instead, they left power vacuums and deepened regional instability.
Iran's current leadership, widely condemned for its repression of political dissent, women's rights, and LGBTQ+ individuals, retains a measure of domestic support. Many Iranians oppose the clerical establishment but are wary of foreign-led change.