Strong Chinese demand pushes global EV sales to 20% of market share

RNZ News

15-05-2025

The Tesla Model Y was the most popular Australian EV sold in 2024.
Photo:
Supplied/Tesla
The share of electric car sales climbed to 20 percent of all vehicles sold in 2024, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency.
Sales growth was strongest in China, where 11 million EVs were sold, making up almost half of all Chinese vehicle sales.
South-East Asian and Latin American markets were hot spots for sales increases over 2024, jumping by 50 percent compared with 2023.
Growth lagged in the European Union and the United States, where sales grew by 20 percent and 10 percent respectively.
"We know there are economic, trade and technology uncertainties in the world now, and questions about whether sales are going up or down," IEA executive director Faith Birol said.
"Our numbers show that, despite many headlines saying EVs were not doing good in terms of sales, our numbers show another record of 17 million EVs or an increase of 20 percent compared with the previous year.
"Some emerging countries are seeing strong growth in EV sales, albeit from a low base, especially Vietnam, Thailand, Brazil, Indonesia and elsewhere."
Australian sales of battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids and fuel cell electric vehicles rose by 14 percent, from 98,000 in 2023 to 112,000 in 2024.
Sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles, which contain a battery and internal combustion engine, saw the strongest increase, rising from 11,000 in 2023 to 21,000 in 2024.
Battery electric vehicle sales rose by nearly 6 percent, from 87,000 in 2023, to 91,000 in 2024.
According to the Electric Vehicle Council, the most popular models sold in Australia were the Tesla Model Y and Model 3, and BYD Atto and Seal.
A small number of fuel cell electric vehicles, like the Toyota Miraim, have been sold in Australia since 2021 and are predominantly used as fleet vehicles.
While China is expected to maintain its dominance in EV sales and manufacturing over the coming years, vehicle emissions standards in the United Kingdom and EU are tipped to drive higher sales in those markets.
"These policy pushes are expected to drive up electric car sales in Europe in 2025 to reach a sales share of 25 percent, despite flexibility given to automakers for meeting the 2025 EU emissions reduction target," the report said.
By 2030, the IEA expects EV sales to climb to 40 percent of all vehicles sold globally, with China remaining the dominant market.
In that year, EV sales are pegged at 80 percent of all vehicles sold in China.
The EU's current targets for CO2 emissions have the potential to drive the EV sales share to 60 percent of sales in that market, while the US is only expected to hit a sales share of 20 percent.
Trade and industrial policy, charging technology and the concentration of critical minerals processing are expected to be significant forces shaping the future direction of EV sales are around the world.
Chinese manufacturers are driving growth in EV market share across South-East Asian and Latin American markets.
Photo:
Reuters/Chalinee Thirasupa
The EU, Canada and the US all have steep tariffs of up to 100 percent on Chinese-made EVs.
China's dominance in rare earth, lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite processing was described as "not good news" for the future of the industry by Birol.
"This concentration is not good news, China is dominating this game big time," he said.
"In terms of energy security, one of our golden rules is diversification and, if want to see more diversification in EVs, there is a need for other countries and other companies to be significant players in the game."
In the EU and US, battery electric vehicles are still, on average, more expensive than a conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) counterpart, the IEA report said.
In Germany, an EV was 20 percent more expensive than an ICE alternative, while US EV prices were 30 percent higher.
Chinese manufacturers offering EVs in emerging markets were a key driver of sales, with EV and ICE vehicle prices reaching parity in Thailand, and the gap shrinking to 25 percent in Brazil, compared to 100 percent in 2023.
The IEA said the gap between ICE and EV prices in Mexico fell to 50 percent in 2024, from 100 percent the year prior, driving sales of Chinese imports up to 66 percent of all sales.
Birol said analysis of the life-time costs of running an EV were cheaper than a conventional car.
"On a kilometre-driven basis, on the data we have today with oil at US$66 ($112) a barrel, in all key markets, it is cheaper to run your car with electricity," he said.
Demand for EV batteries is expected to drive overall battery demand from now until 2023, according to the IEA, but demand is expected to be super-charged by the wider adoption of electric heavy vehicles, including trucks and buses, which grew by 80 percent in 2024, mainly driven by China.
There was no change to the average range of EVs in 2024, which is estimated at 340km across all models.
"As market competition intensifies, the fact that average range has stabilised in the past year could indicate that car makers have found an optimal balance between range performance and vehicle manufacturing costs," the report said.
The IEA expects 20 million EVs to be sold in 2025.
- ABC