NAB CEO warns Trump's 'tariff madness' may end Australia's easing cycle
SYDNEY, March 18 (Reuters) - Australia may be at the end of its cycle of interest rate cuts if the "tariff madness" instigated by U.S. President Donald Trump escalates into a global trade war, NAB (NAB.AX), opens new tab CEO Andrew Irvine said on Tuesday.
A "global tariff war" would stoke global inflation and pose challenges for Australia, Irvine said. Last month, Australia cut interest rates for the first time since November 2020 to 4.1%.
Make sense of global markets with the Trading Day newsletter. Sign up here.
"We're not an island," he told the Australian Financial Review Banking Summit. "If this tariff madness does happen, we could be at the end of reductions [in Australia]."
NAB, the country's third-largest mortgage lender and top business lender, is currently forecasting two quarter-point rate cuts in the back half of 2025.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Reuters
33 minutes ago
- Reuters
TRADING DAY Buoyancy trumping uncertainty
ORLANDO, Florida, June 10 (Reuters) - TRADING DAY Making sense of the forces driving global markets By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist I'm excited to announce that I'm now part of Reuters Open Interest (ROI), an essential new source for data-driven, expert commentary on market and economic trends. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, and you can follow us on LinkedIn and X. Global markets remain buoyant, awaiting the outcome of U.S.-China trade talks in London and U.S. inflation figures on Wednesday, both of which could have a bearing on guidance from the Federal Reserve next week and investor sentiment more broadly. In my column today I look at how the Trump administration's crackdown on immigration could cause labor market distortions and headaches for Fed officials. More on that below, but first, a roundup of the main market moves. If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. Today's Key Market Moves Buoyancy trumping uncertainty On the day The World Bank slashed global growth forecasts, warning of the "significant headwind" from tariffs and heightened uncertainty, global stocks clocked their fifth consecutive all-time high. Britain's benchmark FTSE 100 is a whisker from reaching new peaks and Germany's DAX hit an all-time high last week, while on Wall Street the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are within a couple of percentage points of new record levels also. Yet the reasons for equity investors to be fearful right now are plentiful - worries over growth, inflation, tariffs, long-term interest rates, U.S. debt and deficits, and the fact that China, the world's second-largest economy, is still mired in a low growth and deflationary funk. Something not quite adding up, right? Perhaps. On the other hand, the fiscal taps are being turned on in China and Germany, British finance minister Rachel Reeves outlines her multi-year 2 trillion pounds ($2.7 trillion) spending plan on Wednesday, and U.S. President Donald Trump's 'big beautiful bill' currently going through Congress is front-loaded with fiscal stimulus too. None of that is really fresh news but the upshot is a lot of liquidity coursing through the global economy. Right now it is something investors appear willing to accept even if the price is increased debt, and for the U.S. and UK in particular, worse public finances. Big corporate deals are being struck, like the OpenAI and Google cloud service tie-up and Meta Platforms reportedly paying $15 billion for a 49% stake in AI startup Scale AI, and implied equity and bond volatility is low. After a period of fretting more about deficits and spiking bond yields, investors may now be viewing the future with their glass half full. Fiscal stimulus is coming and interest rates around the world are being cut. The monetary outliers are Japan and the U.S., but the Bank of Japan could be near the end of its tightening cycle and the Fed may be about to begin easing later this year. On top of this, there's a general belief that Trump will back down from his hardline stance on tariffs and that a palatable deal with China will be reached, the so-called 'TACO' - Trump Always Chickens Out - trade. Fresh news on that front, at least, should be forthcoming on Wednesday. Trump immigration crackdown creates jobs distortions, Fed headaches Seismic shifts in immigration are distorting the U.S. employment picture, making it harder for investors and policymakers to know exactly how much the labor market is actually slowing. Assuming the Trump administration makes good on its pledge to reduce immigration, either by stopping the flow of people coming into the country or by deporting many already here, the labor supply will shrink. The long-term impact of lower immigration is generally agreed to be negative, as new workers are needed to replace retirees, fill job vacancies and drive economic growth. Over time, fewer new workers will likely mean lower growth. But in the short term, a smaller pool of workers results in a tighter labor market, which keeps a lid on the unemployment rate, albeit artificially and probably temporarily. This may already be playing out. Figures released last week showed that employment in May fell by 696,000 jobs. That's the biggest single monthly decline since the historic losses seen during the pandemic in early 2020. Some economists argue that the recent drop is a consequence of Trump's immigration crackdown. Nonfarm payrolls rose 139,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, which though higher than it was two years ago, is still historically low by any measure. All else being equal, this points to a tight labor market, which should put upward pressure on wages and perhaps even warrant a more hawkish policy stance from the Federal Reserve. But that is almost certainly a misreading. When labor supply and the labor force participation rate fall, this brings down a country's so-called 'breakeven' job growth. That's the number of net new jobs the economy needs to keep up with growth in the working-age population and maintain a steady unemployment rate. That figure is falling, and if the Trump administration toughens up its anti-immigration policies further, this decline is likely to accelerate. According to economists at Morgan Stanley, breakeven employment growth averaged 210,000 jobs a month last year, and is averaging 170,000 so far this year. They reckon it will fall to 90,000 by the end of this year and 80,000 next year. Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, goes further, estimating that the breakeven rate is "quickly approaching" 50,000 jobs a month due to weakening labor supply growth, primarily because of reduced immigration. "The unemployment rate can remain low, but for the wrong reasons," Sweet says. If these projections prove accurate, monthly employment and job growth could continue to slow without raising the unemployment rate. The contradictory signals this sends could create confusion for both investors and policymakers. In his press conference after the most recent Fed policy meeting, Chair Jerome Powell repeatedly told reporters that the labor market is "solid". The unemployment rate "remains low," and the labor market is "at or near maximum employment." If these headline indicators are the gauge, Powell is absolutely correct. But he also stressed that policymakers are looking at the "whole huge array" of labor market indicators for a truer guide. One of those inputs in the months ahead will no doubt be net immigration. And that could generate significant uncertainty, as there are huge gray areas and wide margins of error when trying to estimate net immigration and its impact on the labor market. In January, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office projected net immigration of 2 million people this year and 1.5 million next year, down from an estimated 3.3 million in 2023. With Trump seemingly hardening his stance on immigration, those projections could turn out to be far too high. Morgan Stanley's economists just slashed their immigration forecasts to 800,000 this year and 500,000 next year. If these figures turn out to be closer to reality, we could soon be looking at a "tight" labor market with monthly payrolls gains of well under 100,000. Pity the poor Fed Chair who has to communicate policy in that environment. What could move markets tomorrow? Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Daily Mail
41 minutes ago
- Daily Mail
World faces slowest growth since the 1960s as Donald Trump's tariff wars stifle trade
Donald Trump's tariff wars will turn the 2020s into the slowest decade for global growth for more than half a century, according to the World Bank. The Bank blamed 'heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainty' as it slashed its growth outlook for this year from 2.7 per cent to 2.3 per cent. That is down from 2.8 per cent in 2024 and would be the weakest year – apart from the Covid pandemic in 2020 – since the global financial crisis. And it said that if dismal forecasts over the next two years materialise – at 2.4 per cent for 2026 and 2.6 per cent for 2027 – average global growth in the first seven years of the 2020s will be the slowest of any decade since the 1960s. Without naming the US President, the lender pointed to 'a substantial rise in trade barriers' as being behind the predicted slowdown. The organisation said the US would see just 1.4 per cent growth in 2025, half the rate of last year and a downgrade from 2.3 per cent previously projected in January. The outlook for the eurozone was downgraded for this year from 1 per cent to 0.7 per cent. There was no specific forecast for the UK. World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill said: 'The world economy today is once more running into turbulence. 'Without a swift course correction, the harm to living standards could be deep.' Just six months ago, a so-called 'soft landing' – where inflation is reduced without causing the economy to crash – had appeared in sight, Gill said. But now 'international discord has upended many of the policy certainties that helped shrink poverty and expand prosperity after the end of the Second World War', he added. The World Bank provides grants and low-rate loans to poor economies, with the aim of reducing poverty and boosting living standards. Its warning is even more pessimistic than that issued by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, which last week predicted world growth of 2.9 per cent this year and next. However, hopes have been raised that tensions between the two main protagonists of the trade war, the US and China, may ease. Representatives of the world's two biggest economies met for a second day of talks in London yesterday as they sought a breakthrough. Stocks were lifted by the talks, with the FTSE 100 closing just shy of an all-time high at 8853.08. Oil prices have also received a boost, with the price of a barrel of Brent crude touching $68 a barrel, its highest level in seven weeks.
Daily Mail
42 minutes ago
- Daily Mail
Bryson DeChambeau reveals latest on LIV future and hints at HUGE new contract: 'I know my worth'
Bryson DeChambeau expects to renew his deal with LIV but has hinted that the breakaway league will need to stump up a major offer to keep him, saying: 'I know my worth.' The American, who is defending his US Open title this week, disclosed that negotiations will commence with LIV at the end of the year, with his existing deal due to expire at the conclusion of the 2026 season. He was one of the marquee players when he signed for in excess of $100million in 2022, but his stock has risen dramatically in the past three years. In addition to his victory at Pinehurst last summer, he has amassed more than two million subscribers in his moonlighting as an immensely popular golf influencer. Owing to his friendship with President Donald Trump, DeChambeau has emerged as arguably the most recognized figure in the game outside of Tiger Woods. For LIV to retain him will be crucial to the Saudi-backed league at a point when a merger talks with the PGA Tour have gone cold. 'Next year is when it ends,' DeChambeau said on Tuesday. 'We're looking to negotiate end of this year, and I'm very excited. They see the value in me. I see the value in what they can provide, and I believe we'll come to some sort of resolution on that. 'I am super excited for the future. I think that LIV is not going anywhere. 'How it all works with the game of golf, who knows, but I know my worth. I know what LIV brings to the table. And I'm excited for the future of what golf is going to be.' DeChambeau is tipped to be among the prime contenders at Oakmont this week and has not finished outside the top five in his past four LIV starts, including a win in Korea last month. He also tied for second at the PGA Championship and was fifth at the Masters. The only issue in his game has been his wedge play, which prompted him to seek solace in the laboratory after the PGA Championship in pursuit of a new high-science ball design. While that mission is still in the testing phase, golf's most quirky innovator will be playing here with a new brand of custom-made irons. Characteristically, he described them in terms of 'mass properties' in the heel and toe that flew over the heads of most in the room. On the challenge of playing Oakmont, DeChambeau was clearer: 'I think everybody knows this is probably the toughest golf course in the world right now, and you have to hit the fairways, you have to hit greens, and you have to two-putt, worst-case scenario. 'When you've got those putts inside 10 feet, you've got to make them. It's a great test of golf. I'm looking forward to it. I'm sure everybody else is. I think the person that wins this week is going to hit a lot of fairways and make a lot of putts.'
