This could be the most consequential week for the economy in years

CNN

20 hours ago

The state of President Donald Trump's economy is about to come into full view.
A slew of crucial economic data is set for release this week, including the jobs report, inflation, consumer confidence and corporate earnings. We'll get the first glimpse at America's second-quarter gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy. And, most crucially, the Federal Reserve will decide whether to cut rates or hold steady one more time.
As if that weren't enough, Trump's trade polices also come due: Friday is the administration's self-imposed deadline for settling tariff rates for all 200+ US trading partners. Trump's top economic advisers will be negotiating a trade framework with China in Sweden. And an appeals court will hear arguments this week about whether the bulk of Trump's tariffs are even legal, to begin with.
Altogether, the data could paint a picture of an economy that is resilient — but slowing under the weight of Trump's dizzying tariff changes, reductions in government workers and spending, and an aggressive deportation of foreign-born workers.
Here's a look at what to expect this week and why the data matters:
Some of the biggest names in tech are set to release earnings this week, including Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple. That will set the tone for market sentiment.
Tech stocks have fueled record market growth in recent months as investors focus on gearing up for AI expansion. So far, around 80% of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings this season have beaten estimates, according to FactSet.
Overall, stocks have marched higher into record territory recently, supported by cautious optimism in trade deals and better-than-expected economic data. That has emboldened Trump to push harder on his trade deals, telling NBC News earlier this month that markets hit new highs because 'tariffs have been very well received.'
Why it matters: Strong earnings could continue to boost the stock market, which is starting to look a bit expensive for some investors. That could also convince Trump that the market — which turned on him in April — has acquiesced to his plan for higher tariffs.
Two separate reads on the way Americans are feeling about the economy are set to be released this week.
Consumer confidence, as measured by Conference Board, sank to the lowest level since the pandemic when Trump slapped massive tariffs on major trading partners. Shoppers expressed concern about the negative impact on the economy and prices. But consumers are generally more optimistic now that trade deals are beginning to emerge.
The consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan continues to show that shoppers are wary of inflation levels rising again, after the economy batted down historic price increases following the pandemic. Although sentiment has rallied back from near-record lows earlier this year, it remains depressed because of Trump's trade policy.
Why it matters: Economists pay close attention to consumers' optimism, since their spending powers two-thirds of the economy — and when shoppers think prices are about to rise, they tend to pull back. The latest retail sales data shows that consumers are spending cautiously.
GDP is a key indicator of economic success and, arguably, a validation of Trump's policies. But this quarterly assessment has slumped in recent months, even shrinking in the first quarter of the year for the first time since 2022.
Economists expect an improvement for the April-June quarter as imports rebalance after companies raced to front-load their purchases ahead of Trump's tariffs. They warn that, just as an inventory spike may have artificially hurt GDP in the first quarter, companies working through their warehoused goods in the second quarter may make the economy look better than it actually is.
Why it matters: The US economy is large and resilient, and it has continued to support hundreds of thousands new jobs each month for years. But if Americans are getting cold feet, things could take a turn for the worse.
Trump has repeatedly — and publicly — berated Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering the bank's interest rate (their recent détente notwithstanding), but the central bank is overwhelmingly expected to hold rates steady Wednesday at the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy meeting.
In an unusual kink, two governors are expected to vote against the consensus of the board, which hasn't happened in three decades. With the job market still relatively strong, most Fed officials have said the economy can withstand higher rates for the time being. Meanwhile, they want to wait to see how Trump's policies of high tariffs and deportation of foreign workers impact inflation and the labor market.
Why it matters: The bank is widely expected to start cutting its key overnight lending rate in September — a good sign for Americans hoping to borrow money, and especially for first-time homebuyers, who have been effectively locked out of the market with mortgage rates close to 7%.
The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, has been creeping higher — moving further away from its 2% goal in recent months. That's just one factor behind the central bank's position on rate cuts.
Why it matters: Shoppers have been pulling forward purchases, including back-to-school items, to mitigate expected higher prices, but the July data will likely still bear the fingerprints of Trump's tumultuous trade policy: Items like furniture and toys are starting to reflect elevated costs as pre-tariff inventory is depleted.
Trump's pause on the hefty and unpopular tariffs he rolled out in April expires on August 1. In the intervening period, the White House has scrambled to make deals with a slew of partners, announcing preliminary arrangements with the UK, China, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines and Japan.
As the final deadline approaches, Trump said Friday he would be sending out letters to roughly 200 countries this week unilaterally setting a range of tariff rates. 'It's basically going to say, you're going to pay 10%, you're going to pay 15%, you're going to pay maybe less, I don't know,' Trump told reporters before he left for a trip to Scotland.
US markets are 'very, very fixated' on the levels that are set, and an effective tariff rate beyond 20% on major trading partners could trigger a downturn on Wall Street, one analyst told CNN.
Why it matters: Trump's tariffs that are currently in effect have raised the effective US tariff rate — the average tax that US importers pay on foreign goods — from around 2% to 18%, the highest since 1934, economists at Yale's Budget Lab said in a recent report. That works out to $2,400 a year in added costs for the average American household. The US economy and markets have been able to withstand that so far. A considerably higher tariff rate could put that to the test.
Talks with China are ongoing, however. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to meet Monday and Tuesday with Chinese officials to iron out the details of the framework the two countries agreed upon at their London and Geneva meetings.
Trump in April slapped a 145% tariff on imports from China, prompting Beijing to respond with a 125% tariff on imports from the United States. That effectively created a total embargo between the world's two largest economies before they agreed on a pause until August 12.
Meanwhile, on Thursday, the US Court of Appeals will hear oral arguments about whether Trump can use his emergency powers to levy tariffs after a lower court ruled he had exceeded his authority in doing so.
Why it matters: One of the Trump administration's goals is to shift China towards a more consumer-driven domestic economy, thereby reducing global oversupply of its manufactured goods. While it's unlikely that the United States will dramatically reshape Chinese President Xi Jinping's economic policy, small changes could open some of China's market to US manufacturers, while helping to increase American factory jobs.
Trump has promised a 'Made in America' revival, but the July jobs report is expected to show that average monthly employment gains have dropped to a level not seen since 2010 (excluding the pandemic-era losses).
The labor force has shrunk in recent months, a potential indication of how anti-immigrant rhetoric and mass deportations are weighing on employment.
In addition, the most recent report showed that the manufacturing sector lost jobs for the second-straight month — a murky development for one of Trump's benchmark economic priorities.
Why it matters: America's labor market has been its strong suit for years, routinely defying expectations since the pandemic. But it's showing cracks. Americans who lose their job are now staying unemployed for longer as businesses stall on making decisions, including hiring, as the trade war continues to raise costs.