You Can't Legislate Fertility

Wall Street Journal

23-06-2025

Nobody ever had a baby for the tax break. That's a simple reality that doesn't seem to have dawned on the social conservatives pushing what they call 'family friendly' provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act currently working its way through the Senate. The bill contains several provisions that advocates say will be a boon to new parents and shore up the struggling American family. Don't count on it.
Birthrates across the West have been plummeting for decades. In 1960, the average American woman had 3.65 children in her lifetime. That's fallen to about 1.6. It's a big problem in need of an urgent solution. But the fix won't be found in the tax code. European countries have showered families with tax incentives and child-care subsidies for years. All to no effect.
In France, the law guarantees generous parental benefits, including paid leave, cash birth grants, child-care payments, mortgage support, and lower fares on public transit. For all this largess, fertility is no higher in France than in the U.S. In Hungary, the example par excellence of family-friendly public policy, birth rates are lower than they are here—and falling.
The West is undeniably in the midst of a dangerous demographic collapse. The reasons are complex and hotly debated. Changing sex roles have certainly played a part. The female labor-force participation rate has nearly doubled since 1955. The precipitous decline in religious belief is also to blame. One thing's for certain: Tax policy has nothing to do with it.