Risks of climate crisis to Australia's economy and environment are ‘intense and scary', unreleased government report says
The delayed report – the national climate risk assessment – includes modelling of future climate damage, estimates of the number of people who could be killed by worsening heatwaves and a mapping tool that forecasts flooding risk in suburbs across the continent.
Developed by the Australian Climate Service and the climate change department, it was delayed until after the May election along with other Labor climate documents, including a 2035 emissions reduction target and a climate adaptation plan. The government is expected to release them within weeks – the 2035 target is due by September – but dates have not been confirmed.
Sources who have seen drafts of the risk assessment said it included scenarios that showed the climate crisis would affect all Australians, including in ways that to date have been little discussed in political debate.
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The analysis considered the climate impact on eight systems: defence and national security; the economy, trade and finance; First Nations values and knowledge; health and social support; infrastructure and built environments; the natural environment; primary industries and food and regional; and remote communities.
The results suggest that under some scenarios major systems – including electricity networks, transport routes, food production and supply, and the financial sector – could struggle to cope with rising temperatures and escalating extreme events.
One source, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the report, said: 'My sense is when people read it they have a newfound sense of where climate change will lead. It is intense and scary. Even for someone who has been focused on this and thinking long and hard about IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] reports, it's confronting to read about the details and the severity of the impacts.'
Another said: 'People sometimes think things could get hotter, but it's far more complex than just saying 'it will get hot and people will have heatstroke.' There is not one system that is not hard hit by climate change in the future.'
Beyond the impact on lives, livelihoods and nature, the analysis is expected to prompt debate about the cost to the federal budget, and the extent to which the commonwealth will need to take responsibility to pay for preparation and recovery. Extreme weather slowed economic growth early in 2025 and, according to the federal Treasury, cost the Australian economy $2.2bn in the first half of the year.
The report is a major focus for institutional investors working out where to direct trillions of dollars. The executive director for policy at the Investor Group on Climate Change, Francesca Muskovic, said investors were already seeing physical climate damage and disruption to the economy, and were aware governments could not fund the response on their own.
Muskovic said the commonwealth was already spending $1.6bn a year on disaster recovery, but budgeting only $215m. 'This is now a predictable recurring cost and we need to think about how we better invest in preventive, risk reduction measures that reduce the recovery cost down the track,' she said.
She said the key to increasing private investment was 'getting an accurate and comprehensive picture of where the risks are, and where the investment is most needed'.
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The Greens leader, Larissa Waters, called on the government to release the risk assessment as a prelude to setting a 'strong, science-based' emissions reduction target for 2035, describing it as 'an explosive document that they've been burying for over a year'.
'The Australian public have a right to know what's in store for us,' she said. 'We need the release of that climate report so that everyone can see what potential future lies [ahead] if our government keeps kissing the hand of coal and gas companies.'
The Australian Conservation Foundation's climate program manager, Gavan McFadzean, said the assessment was a 'critical ingredient' in determining a 2035 emissions target and should be released 'well in advance' of that decision. 'It would be wrong for the Albanese government to delay its release to avoid scrutiny over whether the looming 2035 target is ambitious enough to protect people and nature in Australia,' he said.
A spokesperson for the climate change minister, Chris Bowen, said the government was 'close to finalising' the report, describing it as Australia's 'first-ever comprehensive assessment of the risks posed by climate change across the country, and a plan for how we can adapt'.
'We're working hard to rapidly reduce emissions and strengthen our adaptation and resilience, to mitigate against and better prepare for the worsening impacts of climate change,' they said.
One source familiar with the report said they did not mind that the report had been delayed if it meant the government responded to it well. 'In 10 years' time, no one will remember whether it is out this month or next month if it's a good outcome,' they said. 'That's what matters for our kids.'
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