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Malay Mail
2 days ago
- Business
- Malay Mail
Global risks, threats to a sustainable world economy — Ahmad Ibrahim
MAY 30 — Climate change and resource depletion are two of the defining risks to the global economy. This explains the growing worldwide efforts to reduce carbon emission and practise the efficient use of resources. But the climate and resource risks, though major, are not the only threats. The world economy today faces a complex, interlinked set of risks. As a country, Malaysia also has to deal with similar risks. Effectively managing them is key to our sustained economic performance. The other major risks include geopolitical tensions and conflicts, global health crises, financial system instability, technological disruptions, cybersecurity risks, inequality and social unrest, and demographic shifts. We also know for a fact that where there are risks, there are also opportunities. There is no doubt that political instability and trade disputes can disrupt supply chains, energy markets, and global investment flows. The Ukraine-Russia war and US-China trade tensions are recent examples. Though many know that diplomacy and multilateralism through forums like the UN, Asean, G20, and WTO are the ways to manage them, executing is never easy. Aside from diplomacy, diversifying trade and energy routes, as well as building regional trade agreements to minimise overdependence on specific countries can be possible solutions. The Covid-19 pandemic showed how a health emergency can cripple economies, disrupt labour markets, and affect global travel and trade. — Unsplash pic The Covid-19 pandemic showed how a health emergency can cripple economies, disrupt labour markets, and affect global travel and trade. Dealing with such health crisis includes investing in global health infrastructure, early warning systems, and pandemic preparedness. They also include building resilient, flexible supply chains for essential goods like medicines and food and of course international cooperation for the rapid deployment of vaccine and treatment. It is no secret that financial crises, market volatility, and debt defaults can destabilise economies. Possible solutions include strengthening global financial regulations and oversight, maintaining sound fiscal and monetary policies. Rapid technological change is also a risk. It can displace jobs, widen inequality, and increase vulnerability to cyberattacks on financial systems, infrastructure, and data. We need to invest in digital infrastructure and cybersecurity, updating regulations to keep pace with technology (AI ethics, data privacy), and reskilling and upskilling the workforce for the digital economy. Rising wealth and income inequality form another risk. They can trigger social unrest, political instability, and economic stagnation. This is where implementing inclusive economic policies and access to education matter. Small businesses need support and strengthening the social protection systems can make a difference. Furthermore, the ageing populations in developed countries create mismatches in the labour markets, pensions, and healthcare. Reforming pension and healthcare systems for ageing societies, investing in education and job creation for young populations, and managing migration policies effectively can be the tonic to neutralise such risks. How then can the world sustain the global economy amid these risks? A popular suggestion is to adopt a circular economy model. And decouple economic growth from resource use and emissions through renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, and waste management. Also need to build resilient supply chains by diversifying suppliers, investing in local production capacity, and use digital tools for real-time risk management. No country can tackle these risks alone. Strengthening global governance and partnerships is crucial. Not to mention promote responsible technological innovation. This is where we ensure that emerging technologies are developed with ethics, inclusivity, and sustainability in mind. The risks to the global economy are increasingly interconnected. A financial crisis can amplify social unrest. A pandemic can trigger supply chain and geopolitical tensions. A systems-thinking approach to risk management, grounded in sustainability, resilience, and global cooperation, is the most effective path forward. Systems thinking is increasingly recognised as a powerful approach for managing complex, interconnected risks in today's global economy. Systems thinking is an approach to problem-solving that views challenges as parts of a broader, interconnected system rather than isolated issues. It focuses on understanding relationships and feedback loops, and identifying leverage points for interventions. How then to apply systems thinking to risk management and sustainability? First map the system. Use tools like causal loop diagrams, systems maps, or stock-and-flow models to visualise how different risks and factors interact. Identify reinforcing and balancing loops within the system. Economic inequality reinforcing social unrest, which in turn destabilises markets and worsens inequality. Focus on areas where small interventions can produce large system-wide changes. Education reforms can uplift economies, improve health, reduce crime, and empower communities simultaneously. Move beyond siloed thinking. Address climate, health, financial, and social risks through integrated policies and partnerships. There is no denying that by effectively managing such global risks, the impending threats to the world economy can be neutralised. The systems approach is the right way. * The author is affiliated with the Tan Sri Omar Centre for STI Policy Studies at UCSI University and is an associate fellow at the Ungku Aziz Centre for Development Studies, Universiti Malaya. He can be reached at [email protected]. ** This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail.
Irish Times
19-05-2025
- Business
- Irish Times
Ireland's economic ties with US pose notable risks, European Commission warns
Ireland's 'deep economic ties' with the US 'pose notable downward risks' for the economy, the European Commission has warned. In its Spring economic forecasts, the European Union's (EU) executive arm said it expected the Irish economy to grow by 2.2 per cent (in modified domestic demand terms) this year and by 2.3 per cent in 2026 with 'steady employment' and real wage growth driving consumption. 'However, Ireland's openness and high trade and investment links to the US leaves it vulnerable to further protectionist policies,' it said. 'While the current US tariff exemptions – notably on pharmaceuticals – cover a large majority of Ireland's goods exports to the US, the introduction of new tariffs, along with broader US policy changes to disincentivise investment and activity in Ireland present significant downside risks to Ireland's economy,' it said. READ MORE The Commission forecasts assume that US tariffs remain at 10 per cent, with higher duties on some products and exemptions on others. Industry sources have warned that the State could lose up to a quarter of its pharmaceutical manufacturing capacity if US President Donald Trump pushes ahead with plans to cut prices for prescription drugs by urging pharma companies to raise their prices in Europe. [ Ireland must steel itself for a trade war with the US Opens in new window ] The European Commission highlighted this as a key risk to Ireland's fiscal outlook. 'A weaker performance or a downsizing of the multinational-dominated sectors would significantly affect tax revenues,' it said. 'The outlook for corporate income tax revenues is particularly uncertain, given their concentration among a relatively small number of large multinational companies and a large portion estimated to be windfall, ie beyond what is explained by underlying domestic economic activity,' it said. 'I've entrepreneurial spirit in my veins' – Apprentice star Jordan Dargan Listen | 44:45 The commission forecast the Irish Government would continue to run a healthy budget surplus this year albeit with revenue growth slowing 'amid heightened levels of consumer and business uncertainty'. Even before the impact of tariffs, corporation tax is expected to be €2 billion lower than previously forecast, at €29 billion, due to declining profitability at multinationals, the Department of Finance said earlier this month. On the wider euro zone economy, the commission cut its headline growth forecast, citing 'weakening global trade outlook and higher trade policy uncertainty'. [ For Ireland, the choice between the US and China is easy Opens in new window ] It said it expected the 20-state single currency area's economy to grow at a rate of 0.9 per cent in 2025 – down from a previous forecast of 1.3 per cent. 'The ongoing disinflationary process, which began at the end of 2022, is expected to advance steadily,' it said. 'After easing to 2.4 per cent in 2024, Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation in the euro area is projected to reach the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2 per cent already in 2025, falling further in 2026,' it said. However, it warned risks to the outlook were tilted to the downside. 'Further fragmentation of global trade could mitigate gross domestic product (GDP) growth and reignite inflationary pressures,' it said. 'On the upside, further de-escalation of EU-US trade tensions or faster expansion of the EU's trade with other countries, including through new free trade agreements, could sustain EU growth. Increased defence spending could also contribute positively,' it said. As Russia's war in Ukraine grinds on, Germany's new chancellor Freidrich Merz has vowed to transform the nation's armed forces into Europe's strongest conventional army to help counter the rising threat from Russia.
CNA
11-05-2025
- Business
- CNA
Sales of gold in Singapore on the rise amid global economic uncertainty
SINGAPORE: Gold dealers in Singapore have seen sales of physical bars and coins soar in the first four months of the year. In the first quarter, Singaporeans bought 2.5 tonnes of gold bullion, a 35 per cent increase compared with the same period last year – the biggest on-year jump since 2010. Despite the precious metal's spot price breaking US$3,000 (S$3,900) in March and surging to US$3,500 less than two months later, buyers do not appear deterred and sales are still going strong. Analysts said part of the rush to purchase gold is due to hedging against economic risks, as rising global uncertainty pushes investors to go for a safe haven asset. SNAPPING UP GOLD Mr Gregor Gregersen, founder of The Reserve – a high-capacity vault for the storage of gold and silver in Changi – said some ultra-high net worth clients are switching over to physical gold. "(They're) buying, let's say, S$60 million to S$70 million worth of gold. (Some) clients are doing it because they want to materialise the might be having large positions in paper hold and they're getting more worried about what might happen,' he said. 'They're saying, 'I'd rather… get physical gold, put it in a safe place, and essentially reduce my risk'." Mr Shaokai Fan, the World Gold Council's head of Asia-Pacific and central banks, said gold has proven its resilience during periods of instability. 'It's also a relatively liquid asset, so I think that's what caused a lot of investors to still invest in gold despite the fact that the price is relatively high,' he noted. He added there are growing concerns about the future of traditional safe haven assets like the United States dollar and US Treasuries. 'When you don't have those safe haven assets available, you're left with a few others … (such as) government bonds and gold. Many investors have … turned to gold as a way to brace themselves against an uncertain world,' he said. NOT ALL GOLD GLITTERS But not all gold assets are being snapped up. Demand for gold jewellery fell 20 per cent on-year in the first quarter, partly due to the record price environment. Gold dealer Brian Lan said jewellery tends to cost more as there are labour costs involved in crafting pieces. Jewellery is also subject to goods and services tax (GST), unlike investment-grade gold bullion. 'So, comparing both, if you want to look for investment, of course more people will look at physical gold instead of jewellery,' said Mr Lan, who is the managing director of GoldSilver Central. 'Many people see it as a universal currency. People (also) think they can melt the gold, if required, and change it into jewellery.' For the rest of the year, analysts said the appeal of gold with central banks will underpin demand, pushing prices to fresh all-time highs. Mr Fan pointed out that central banks have been buying huge amounts of gold for the last three years. 'Central banks are ultimately much more sensitive about some of these political developments that we've been seeing. They, like other investors, also need to find ways to build more resilience,' he said.
Reuters
06-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
New Zealand central bank warns of risks to financial system amid global volatility
WELLINGTON, May 7 (Reuters) - New Zealand's central bank said on Wednesday that risks to the financial system had increased over the past six months as the global economic environment becomes more volatile, but said the country's banks remain in a strong position. Geopolitical risks have escalated following U.S. tariffs on goods imports from many countries, including New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Christian Hawkesby said in the Financial Stability Report. These developments have heightened financial market volatility and pose a material risk to global economic activity, the report said. 'While the global economic environment has become more volatile, our financial institutions are in a strong position to support the economy,' Hawkesby said. The statement said banks have strong capital and liquidity buffers in place to maintain credit flows even if conditions deteriorate further. They also remain profitable, with non-performing loans expected to decline as mortgage rates reprice lower. While New Zealand moved out of recession in the fourth quarter of last year, the economy remains soft and sentiment weak. Data due to be released later on Wednesday is expected to show that unemployment has risen to 5.3%. The central bank said domestically, economic activity remains subdued as previously high interest rates, rising unemployment and a weak housing market continue to weigh on demand. 'However, lower borrowing costs and high agricultural export prices are supporting debt serviceability,' it added. The RBNZ has cut the cash rate by 200 basis points since August last year to 3.5% as it tried to prop up the economy and is expected to cut further this year. The central bank said that geopolitical risks have escalated, particularly following the United States' imposition of sweeping tariffs on goods imports from many countries, including New Zealand. 'These developments have heightened financial market volatility and pose a material risk to global economic activity,' it said.
