UFC Fight Night 107 predictions: Full card picks for prelims and main card
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An appetizer the week before the main course.
The UFC returns to its UFC Apex warehouse this weekend for an average Fight Night event, one week ahead of a loaded card at UFC 316 in Newark.
Saturday's card won't be one you remember for years to come in terms of entertainment value, as it's not the highest level card we've seen, but perhaps you will look back on it as one that made you big money.
With 11 fights on the schedule and six of them projected to end inside the distance, according to the oddsmakers, we should have another fun night in front of us. Here are my UFC Fight Night Vegas 107 predictions:
The entire card is getting primetime treatment this weekend as it begins at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Erin Blanchfield preparing for her flyweight bout against Manon Fiorot at the UFC Fight Night event in Atlantic City, New Jersey
Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber
Elmwood Park, N.J.'s own Blanchfield has a chance to earn a flyweight title shot with a win Saturday. The pressure-oriented fighter is always down to strike with her opponent, even if the path of least resistance might be grappling.
Barber was once a top prospect, winning her first four fights in the UFC before dropping two straight. All hope felt like it had been lost for Barber's chances of becoming a title challenger, but six straight wins have changed her outlook.
Somewhat surprisingly, Barber is just a +180 underdog on Saturday. This is a tough spot for the highly athletic flyweight who can't really defend takedowns at a high level.
Her offensive grappling is strong, but she stuffs takedowns at only a 53 percent rate. Andrea Lee took her down five times in 2022.
I suspect Blanchfield gets it done here, and a submission is, of course, possible given Barber's struggles stopping takedowns. For that reason, I have built a same-game-parlay on DraftKings that accounts for submissions.
Blanchfield to win by decision is -115, but I'd prefer to play it this way:
Pick: Blanchfield moneyline + fight starts Round 3 (-160, DraftKings).
Mateusz Gamrot of Poland prepares to face Dan Hooker of New Zealand in a lightweight fight during the UFC 305 event at RAC Arena on August 18, 2024 in Perth, Australia.
Zuffa LLC
Mateusz Gamrot vs. Ludovit Klein
It's been a while since we've seen Gamrot, who was once firmly in the lightweight title picture. He is a takedown machine who boasts wins over title challenger Arman Tsarukyan as well as striker Rafael Fiziev.
Gamrot's only losses are against Beneil Dariush and Dan Hooker, two hard-nosed, top-tier strikers.
While Klein is a solid fighter who has used his striking to win big, it's not my favorite spot to bet on him this weekend.
He shockingly defeated Ignacio Bahamondes in 2023, but he has struggled in other spots, notably against Jai Herbert, who has a rough 3-5-1 record, and he has a loss to Michael Trizano, who has since parted ways with the promotion.
I expect Gamrot will win by decision here as long as he doesn't fall in love with his below-average striking and takes the path that gives him the best chance at victory.
Pick: Gamrot by decision (+102, BetRivers).
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UFC Vegas 107 full card picks for prelims and main cards
Blanchfield moneyline + fight starts Round 3 (-160, DraftKings).
Gamrot by decision (+102, BetRivers).
Billy Ray Goff vs. Ramiz Brahimaj: Goff by decision (+235, BetRivers).
Dustin Jacoby vs. Bruno Lopes: Jacoby moneyline + fight starts Round 2 (-115, FanDuel).
Ketlen Vieira vs. Macy Chiasson: Chiasson moneyline (-120, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Zachary Reese vs. Duško Todorovic: Reese ML (-230, DraftKings).
Jafel Filho vs. Allan Nascimento: Pass.
Kurt Holobaugh vs. Jordan Leavitt: Holobaugh by decision (+500, DraftKings).
Trevin Giles vs. Andreas Gustafsson: Gustafsson by KO/TKO (+185, FanDuel).
Bolaji Oki vs. Michael Aswell: Pass. Aswell Jr. taking fight on extremely short notice; unclear what kind of shape he is in.
Rayanne dos Santos vs. Alice Ardelean: dos Santos by decision (-125, BetMGM).
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