The unsettled future of the BLS monthly job reports

Politico

6 hours ago

DATA DUMP — Earlier this week, E.J. Antoni, President Donald Trump's new pick to run the Bureau of Labor Statistics, set off alarm bells by hinting that he'd suspend monthly reports on job numbers. The markets, economists and those who rely on BLS data viewed it as another unsettling development that began with the president's firing of the BLS commissioner — a move that came in response to the president's anger over the bureau's downward revision of the May and June jobs numbers.
The immediate outcry, from both sides of the political spectrum, was enough for Antoni and the Trump administration to backpedal immediately and offer assurances that the key economic figures would still be released monthly. 'I believe that is the plan, and that's the hope, and that these monthly reports will be data that the American people can trust,' White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Tuesday.
That semi-concession, however, has been made without any of the core issues resolved. The Trump administration still distrusts the BLS data and methodology because of its revision process, despite the many economists who confirm that it is a necessary and normal practice. Many MAGA supporters continue to view the revision process as proof of 'data manipulation.' In any case, there have been no follow-up announcements about alternative methods or improvements to collecting the job numbers, leaving a big question mark regarding the future of the monthly jobs report.
As the administration weighs its options and reconsiders the BLS methodology and data, economists say it's critical that they understand the necessity of fast and frequent reports. The economy can move quickly — as can be seen in the dramatic market changes during the pandemic and the Great Recession — which is why BLS has always released early estimates, even if they're imperfect. 'There's a trade-off between perfect accuracy and getting the numbers quickly when they're relevant,' said Jessica Riedl, a conservative economist at the Manhattan Institute.
Without the monthly job numbers, governments and markets will be flying blind on the state of the economy: You can expect a drop off in business investment as companies become weary of investing aggressively in an unsure economy — a phenomenon that may be seen through slowing economic growth figures, Riedl said. Then, there's also an equally concerning alternative, where businesses expand during a time they shouldn't because they're making their decision off on dated data, according to Guy Berger, an economist who leads economic research at the Burning Glass Institute, a non-profit that does labor market research and analysis.
'Both of these can exist at the same time for different people, and that's a risk,' Berger said. 'It's like you're driving and the windshield is clouded.'
There's also the issue of the persisting 'vibecession' narrative, where people believe that the economy is worse than it actually is. In the past, the job numbers report has been used as concrete data to refute the negative vibes surrounding the economy. By eliminating those figures, we may inch toward a reality in which people's feelings are the only source of data, said Berger. That could be bad news for the Trump administration, which would have to continue to battle the recession narrative, and could ultimately lead to consumers hunkering down because there isn't enough solid data to disprove their pessimistic attitude toward the economy.
If the Trump administration's tinkering with jobs numbers affects the quality of the data — or even renders the report useless — expect businesses and government organizations to scramble for more information from the private sector: ADP publishes a monthly national employment report; LinkedIn posts hiring rates; Indeed uploads job postings; The Conference Board surveys people's confidence in the economy. These figures, however, ultimately cannot replace the scope and rigor of the current BLS data. 'They're a complement, not a substitute,' Berger said.
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