GOP megabill's final score: $3.4T in red ink and 10 million kicked off health insurance, CBO says
Over the next decade, the megabill Trump signed on July 4 would increase the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion and cause 10 million people to lose health insurance, the Congressional Budget Office forecasts. While the newly enacted legislation would save more than $1 trillion by cutting federal spending on health care — with the majority coming from Medicaid — CBO predicts that the package's costs will far outweigh its savings.
The bulk of the red ink from the package comes from the GOP's permanent extension of Trump's 2017 tax cuts. The analysis finds that the Senate Finance Committee, which has jurisdiction over tax policy, enacted policies that would decrease the incoming federal cash flow from taxes by a total of $4.5 trillion. That sum includes the cost of tax cuts Republicans added during Senate floor debate of the package.
CBO's new uninsured figure is below itsprior estimate of 11.8 million people. The agency said it will offer details on the differences in the coming weeks, but one source of the reduction is removal of a policy in the final version of the megabill that would have led to an estimated 1.4 million undocumented immigrants losing coverage.
The budget office also recalculated savings from agriculture policies. In the final days before the bill cleared Congress, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) led negotiations to soften a requirement to make states pay for part of SNAP food assistance, the nation's largest anti-hunger program.
Cuts to federal agriculture spending and the bill's overhaul of the food aid program will save $120 billion over the next decade, CBO predicts.
A prior version of the legislation also offset costs with policies intended to penalize states that offer coverage to undocumented immigrants out of their own coffers. Undocumented immigrants are prohibited from getting Medicaid coverage, but a dozen states and the District of Columbia pay for services with their own funds.
The bill originally cut funding for states that had opted to expand Medicaid under the Democrats' 2010 health law, but the provision was dropped in the final version due to an objection from the Senate parliamentarian.
At the request of Senate Republicans, CBO also included an analysis using a new accounting tactic that zeroes out the cost of permanently extending Trump's 2017 tax cuts. Senate Republicans have argued that merely extending current tax rates shouldn't be counted towards the deficit and that traditional accounting used by CBO biases against preventing tax increases.
Under the separate analysis, also released on Monday, the sweeping domestic policy bill would increase the federal deficit by only $366 billion.
Katherine Tully-McManus and Samuel Benson contributed to this report.
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CNN
28 minutes ago
- CNN
Thai-Cambodia border clashes continue despite Trump's announcement of ceasefire talks
Cambodia and Thailand exchanged fire across their disputed border for a fourth day on Sunday, hours after US President Donald Trump announced the two Southeast Asian nations had agreed to ceasefire talks. At least 32 people have been killed and at least 200,000 displaced since Thursday, according to Thai and Cambodian officials, in clashes that have rumbled on despite calls from the United Nations, United States and China for the fighting to stop. Both sides have accused the other of starting the latest border flare-up, and traded blame for the ongoing fighting. But hours after Trump's announcement, Thailand's government on Sunday said it was 'not ready' to stop military operations and accused Cambodia of continuing to fire heavy artillery at civilian areas in its Surin province, on the border, and several other areas. 'Any cessation of hostilities cannot be reached' while Cambodia is 'repeatedly violating the basic principles of human rights and humanitarian law,' Thailand's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement. Thailand hit several locations in Cambodia with drones, tank fire, cluster and aerial bombs early Sunday morning local time, a spokesperson for Cambodia's defense ministry told reporters. Some of the firing landed near the ancient Preah Vihear temple, a UNESCO World heritage site in Cambodia's northern Preah Vihear province, according to Lt. Gen. Maly Socheata. The temple complex has been at the center of previous clashes between the two nations. Cambodia slammed what it said were Thailand's 'deliberate and premeditated acts of aggression.' Those acts 'have occurred despite ongoing efforts led by President Donald Trump to seek a ceasefire, efforts that have been publicly and clearly supported by Hun Manet, Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Cambodia,' Lt. Gen. Maly Socheata said. 'Our forces are still striking back actively and are not afraid to protect the territory,' Maly Socheata said. The state-run National Broadcasting Services of Thailand (NBT) reported that Cambodian forces had fired artillery into the Thai border province of Surin, west of Preah Vihear, damaging residential homes. Thai forces were responding, it reported. Thailand on Sunday said 19 people have been killed since hostilities began, mostly civilians. There are more than 138,000 from six provinces displaced and staying in government shelters, according to the Ministry of Public Health. Cambodia said Saturday that in Oddar Meanchey province, which borders Thailand's Surin, 13 people had been killed, including eight civilians, and 50 wounded. At least 80,000 people in Cambodia have been displaced by the fighting, according to the defense ministry. President Trump said Saturday that he had spoken with both Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet and acting prime minister of Thailand Phumtham Wechayachai in his efforts to restore peace. 'They have agreed to immediately meet and quickly work out a Ceasefire and, ultimately, PEACE!' Trump wrote on Truth Social in a series of posts on outlining his diplomatic efforts, but offering no details on the negotiations. Trump said he had warned Hun Manet and Phumtham that he would not make trade deals with either country if the deadly border conflict continued. 'They are also looking to get back to the 'Trading Table' with the United States, which we think is inappropriate to do until such time as the fighting STOPS,' Trump wrote. Earlier this month, Trump wrote letters to Thailand and Cambodia threatening a 36% tariff on most of their exports to the US, starting August 1. Cambodia and Thailand both delivered substantial offers to their US counterparts in an effort to move to the front of the line for a trade agreement, officials said at the time. In the early hours of Sunday morning local time, Hun Manet thanked Trump and said that Cambodia agreed with 'the proposal for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire between the two armed forces.' It added that he had previously agreed to a ceasefire proposal from Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. A statement from Thailand's Ministry of Foreign Affairs was more measured, saying it wished to see 'sincere intention from the Cambodian side' – but that Phumtham had also 'requested President Trump to convey …that Thailand wants to convene a bilateral dialogue as soon as possible to bring forth measures and procedures for the ceasefire and the eventual peaceful resolution of the conflict.' Bangkok and Phnom Penh have been fighting over territory disputed since colonial power France drew the border between them more than a century ago. The renewed deadly conflict pits longtime US ally Thailand, with decades of experience, against Cambodia's relatively young armed force with close ties to China. The United Nations has condemned the violence, with Secretary General António Guterres urging in a post on X for 'both sides to immediately agree to a ceasefire and to address any issues through dialogue.'


CNBC
29 minutes ago
- CNBC
Global week ahead: Crunch time for trade talks as Trump's deadline nears
I think most would agree that the news cycle has been relentless for most of 2025, but certain stories do seem a little "Groundhog Day" at the moment. Earlier this month, I wrote about the conundrum facing the newsroom over how to approach President Donald Trump's then-trade talk deadline of July 9. Now, at the end of the month, we find ourselves in a similar position, but this time the date we are all watching is August 1. Why? Once again, it's another deadline for countries across the globe to try and agree a trade truce with the United States, with the European Union in particular focus this time round. Debate in the newsroom resurfaces … when is a deadline not a deadline? The week has become even trickier to predict, with talks between the U.S. and China now taking center stage in Stockholm on Monday and Tuesday — potentially further complicating the picture for Europe. A U.S. trade agreement with the European Union has seemed tantalizingly close, with CNBC's Silvia Amaro reporting that a 15% baseline tariff rate is the base-case scenario, according to an EU diplomat. These reports drove stock markets across Europe and the U.S. higher last week. On Friday, however, Trump told reporters there was only a "50-50 chance" of a deal. As CNBC's Holly Ellyatt explains, the EU is keeping its so-called "trade bazooka" — or Anti Coercion Instrument — warm in case an agreement is not reached by the August deadline. The corporate world is crying out for an agreement, piling pressure on the European Union to put an end to the uncertainty. Puma, VW, Michelin and other corporates across Europe have downgraded their outlooks citing the impact of tariffs and the ongoing pressure the restrictions are putting on these businesses. This week, all eyes will be on another raft of earnings from Europe, including banking giants UBS, Santander and Standard Chartered, drinks firm Heineken, pharma giant AstraZeneca and energy major Shell to name a few. On the data front, GDP growth rates for France, Spain, Germany and Italy will be released on Wednesday, providing insight into the wider impact of the market uncertainty. Last week, the tricky economic conditions saw the European Central Bank opt for a hawkish hold of the benchmark rate at 2%, with President Christine Lagarde saying the ECB is "in a good place to hold and watch how risks develop over the next few months." And so Friday August 1st will be a crucial date for market participants and corporates (and the newsroom)… until it isn't.


CNBC
29 minutes ago
- CNBC
How Trump and trade wars pushed Russia and Ukraine into the cold
In heady times — and with trade wars dominating the news agenda — it's easy to forget that Russia and Ukraine's soldiers continue to fight for every inch of frontline territory in Ukraine. Conflict in Gaza, ongoing economic uncertainty in the U.S. and Europe and the shifting geopolitical landscape with strengthening, and opposing, 'axes of power' are also at the fore of global policymakers' minds, pushing more than three-and-a-half years of war in Ukraine down the agenda. It seems increasingly that both Russia and Ukraine are being left out in the cold, with even this week's talks in Istanbul, involving negotiating teams from both sides, barely getting a mention in the media. As things stand, there's an uneasy air when it comes to the direction of the war and prospects for peace. Trump appeared to lose his patience when he stated on July 14 that Ukraine could receive more U.S.-made weapons — as long as NATO allies paid for them — and gave Russia a 50-day deadline to reach a peace deal with Ukraine. If it did not, he said, Russia would face "very severe" sanctions and "secondary" tariffs of up to 100%. Those could hit Russia hard, as well as its remaining trading partners, including India and China, who buy Russian oil and gas, among other commodities. As things stand, Russia has until Sept 2 to show it's serious about a ceasefire and peace plan — on which little progress has been made, despite some agreements over prisoner swaps. Analysts are skeptical that the threat of more sanctions will move Russian President Vladimir Putin to come to the negotiating table in good faith, let alone talk to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. There is a stretch between Trump's demand for a peace deal and any further sanctions, Mykola Bielieskov, research fellow at Ukraine's National Institute for Strategic Studies, said. "The Kremlin is generally banking on the fact that the United States under Trump is incapable of a systematic policy of supporting Ukraine and putting pressure on Russia," Bielieskov told NBC News earlier in July. "Serious secondary sanctions require a willingness to quarrel with China and India, which buy raw materials from Russia," he noted. "Similarly, when it comes to weapons, the speed and volume of supplies here and now matter. Therefore, there are many known unknowns. And I think Russia may believe that the U.S. will not dare to impose secondary sanctions on Russia's trading partners," he added. Ukraine, at the mercy of U.S. and European largesse when it comes to weapons supplies, has shown more willingness to negotiate in recent months, calling, along with Trump, for a ceasefire with Russia that has gone unanswered. It has also shown a willingness to compromise even when it comes to ceding Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory to Moscow if it was granted something of a 'holy grail' for the country: NATO membership. But there has been little sign that Russia, making small but incremental gains on the battlefield due to its sheer force of conscripted manpower and intense drone warfare, would be willing to accept Western-pledged security guarantees for Ukraine, in any form. Making matters worse for Kyiv is growing unrest at a domestic level, with misgivings over ongoing martial law, the lack of elections and the wartime leadership of Zelenskyy. Protests erupted in Kyiv last week amid a backlash against government moves to limit the independence of two anti-corruption agencies. Top EU politicians expressed consternation at the move to outlet Politico, saying it showed a lack of commitment to pursuing European democratic values. Combatting what has been endemic corruption in Ukraine is seen as a prerequisite for EU membership, which Kyiv covets. A government reshuffle in mid-July also fueled accusations that Zelenskyy was concentrating power among loyalists, which could also ignite concerns among Ukraine's international backers and benefactors. Ukraine is entering "a critical phase of internal consolidation amid growing external uncertainty," according to Tatiana Stanovaya, senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and the founder of political analysis firm, R. Politik. "The latest battlefield developments coincide with a new American posture: Donald Trump has opted for tactical delay over decisive engagement, stepping back operationally while transferring financial and political responsibilities to Europe," she said in emailed comments this week. "Kyiv, meanwhile, is using this interlude to recalibrate internally. The recent government reshuffle ... underscores the Zelenskyy administration's intent to reinforce political control and preserve cohesion in the face of mounting pessimism, institutional inertia, and an intensifying labour crisis," she added. Despite increasing Western unease regarding Ukraine's domestic trajectory, Stanovaya noted, "international support is becoming more transactional, geared primarily towards sustaining the front line rather than advancing democratic reform."