
Midyear outlook: North American small-cap equities
The Russell 2000 is still sharply discounted, yet catalysts remain scarce for the gauge to rerate higher — though easing trade tensions and lower rates are the most obvious possible sparks that could ignite some rally. Our Fair Value Model hints that the index's multiple still has some room to rise based on rate consensus, but anemic macro forecasts are still driving a disconnect between the regression's implied growth and bottom-up consensus — the former remains concerned about the weight of trade tensions on the US economy, while the latter appears to expect a swift resolution to tensions. Credit markets continue to sound an all clear, though rising distress in energy is worth watching.
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Bloomberg
6 hours ago
- Bloomberg
Midyear outlook: Asia-Pacific oil refining
This article was written by Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Industry Analyst Henik Fung and Senior Associate Analyst Chia Chen. It appeared first on the Bloomberg Terminal. Asian oil refiners could face stronger margin headwinds in 2H if demand slumps and crude costs spike. Sluggish China exports and industrial activity as a result of US tariffs could deliver a blow to diesel demand. Meanwhile, the availability of more affordable electric vehicles would accelerate wider adoption, weakening gasoline consumption. Escalating MiddleEast tensions could keep the price of oil higher for longer amid widening risk premiums. All these point to a slump in Asia refining margins. BI Asia-Pacific refining peers traded at 0.8x book value as of June 10, below their 10-year average of 1.1x.
Yahoo
8 hours ago
- Yahoo
Morgan Stanley makes bold S&P 500 projection as U.S. dollar weakens
Morgan Stanley makes bold S&P 500 projection as U.S. dollar weakens originally appeared on TheStreet. Good morning. The market is finally open and the small cap-centric Russell 2000 is leading U.S. indexes this morning, up 0.40%. For the moment, it's trailed by the Nasdaq Composite (+0.34%), the S&P 500 (+0.13%), and the Dow 30 (-0.08%). Morgan Stanley, Oppenheimer Hike S&P 500 Targets On Monday morning, analysts at Morgan Stanley and Oppenheimer are out with new price targets for the S&P 500, both pointing to strong corporate earnings — as well as trade deals, a strong U.S. economy and macro factors — as reasons to be bullish. Oppenheimer raised their year-end target for the index from to 7,100 (from 5,950 in April), which would be roughly an 11% gain from current prices. Morgan Stanley is banking on the S&P 500 to hit 7,200 by mid-2026, which would be a 12% increase over the next 12 months or so. Oppenheimer says that 84% of S&P 500 firms beating their estimates during Q4 and Q1. Per FactSet, 34% of the S&P 500 have reported Q2 earnings, with 80% of companies posting earnings and revenue surprises. Morgan Stanley adds that AI adoption, a weaker dollar and Fed rate cuts will also help move the index along. Stock Market Today U.S. equities are little-moved on Monday morning after a busy week of trade talks. The U.S. and European Union clinched a long-anticipated tariff deal, while the U.S. and China agreed to extend a tariff pause for another 90 days, allowing more time for negotiations. We turn our attention this morning to what is bound to be a blockbuster week for earnings and data. S&P 500 Seeks a Sixth Consecutive Record Last Friday, the S&P 500 did something it had only done 57 times before by notching its fifth-consecutive record close. Whether it can score a sixth-consecutive record this week, and continue its upward lurch, might come down to data and earnings — and there will be no shortage of them this week. Earnings and Data Today Our very own Charley Blaine wrote at length about the big reports coming up this week in "It's a Lollapalooza Week Ahead for Markets," highlighting some of the 873 earnings reports on deck this week, including reports from several of America's most-valuable firms. As the start and end of the week tend to be, today will be light, as we seek a number of after market reports from Welltower () , Waste Management () and others: Aside from reports today, we'll also be looking out for the Dallas Fed's Manufacturing Index print this morning. The report could illuminate the state of affairs in U.S. manufacturing. The print is anticipated to be negative, implying continued contraction; it would be the sixth consecutive month decline. America's Even Larger Largest Railroad? It turns out, the tariff talks weren't the only deals that made inroads railroads this weekend. During its Thursday earnings report, America's largest railroad confirmed rumors that it was in merger talks with competitor Norfolk Southern, while drawing some caution. But per Bloomberg, the two companies are reportedly close to reaching an agreement, creating a coast-to-coast rail giant worth over $200 billion. Their chart tells the story from last week; it'll be one to watch this week as the companies converge on terms. Even more so with Norfolk Southern set to report its earnings on Jul. 29. Morgan Stanley makes bold S&P 500 projection as U.S. dollar weakens first appeared on TheStreet on Jul 28, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jul 28, 2025, where it first appeared. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data


Forbes
15 hours ago
- Forbes
How Will Norfolk Southern Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
CANADA - 2025/03/14: In this photo illustration, the Norfolk Southern (NS) logo is seen displayed on ... More a smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) Norfolk Southern (NYSE:NSC) is set to release its earnings on Tuesday, July 29, 2025. Over the past five years, the stock of Norfolk Southern has displayed an equal distribution in one-day returns after earnings announcements. In 50% of cases, the stock experienced a positive one-day return, with a median increase of 2.3%. In contrast, in the remaining 50% of instances, it recorded a negative one-day return, with a median drop of -1.8%. While the actual results compared to consensus projections will be critical, understanding these historical trends can give event-driven traders an advantage. There are two main strategies to utilize this data: Analysts' consensus projections for the upcoming quarter suggest earnings of $3.30 per share on revenues of $3.13 billion. This is compared to last year's quarter earnings of $3.06 per share on revenues of $3.04 billion, indicating an anticipated rise in both profitability and revenue. From a fundamental viewpoint, Norfolk Southern currently has a market capitalization of $63 billion. Over the past twelve months, the company generated $12 billion in revenue, and was operationally profitable with $4.9 billion in operating profits and a net income of $3.3 billion. Nonetheless, if you are looking for upside with reduced volatility compared to individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative — having outperformed the S&P 500 and produced returns exceeding 91% since its inception. View earnings reaction history for all stocks Historical Probabilities of Positive Post-Earnings Return for Norfolk Southern Insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns: Additional information regarding observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings is summarized along with the statistics in the table below. NSC 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return Correlation Among 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns A relatively less risky strategy (though not effective if the correlation is weak) is to comprehend the relationship between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identify a pair with the highest correlation, and execute the relevant trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrate the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves "long" for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Please note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns. NSC Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns Find out more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (which includes all 3— the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000)—providing impressive returns for investors. Additionally, if you desire upside with a smoother experience than holding a stock like Norfolk Southern, take into account the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and achieved >91% returns since its inception.