Thune's first big test as Senate leader has arrived with Trump's tax bill

San Francisco Chronicle​

2 days ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — Only six months into the job, Senate Majority Leader John Thune faces a massive challenge as he tries to quickly push President Donald Trump's sprawling tax and spending cuts package to passage with the support of a divided GOP conference.
While most Republican senators are inclined to vote for the bill, Thune can stand to lose only four votes in the face of united Democratic opposition — and many more Republicans than that are critical of the version sent over by the House.
To get it done by July 4 — Trump's deadline — Thune has to figure out how to balance the various, and sometimes conflicting, demands emerging from his members. And he has to do it in a way that doesn't endanger Republican support in the House, which passed the legislation by only one vote last month after weeks of contentious negotiations.
It's a complicated and risky undertaking, one that is likely to define the first year of Thune's tenure and make or break his evolving relationship with Trump.
'This is when John's leadership is going to be desperately needed,' said North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, one of the Republican holdouts who is pushing back on the bill's quick phaseout of certain energy tax credits. 'You can say no all you want, as long as you don't say no to the wrong 51 people.'
So far, the well-liked South Dakota Republican is in a good place, both with colleagues and the White House. Thune has worked closely with Trump, despite a rockier relationship at the end of Trump's first term. While acknowledging that the Senate will likely change the bill to address concerns about changes to Medicaid and other programs, Thune has repeatedly said that 'failure is not an option.'
'Individual pieces of it people don't like,' Thune said Tuesday. 'But in the end, we have to succeed.'
To get there, Thune has been meeting in his office with senators to hear them out, bringing in his colleagues individually and in small groups to discuss portions of the bill. Republican senators say the outreach is a stark change from his predecessor, Mitch McConnell, who was more feared than loved and kept a tight circle of advisers.
McConnell stepped down from the leadership post in January after almost two decades amid a series of health episodes and growing criticism from senators on the right flank, who felt that he consolidated power and ignored their concerns.
'It's very much a change,' said North Dakota Sen. Kevin Cramer. Thune has 'already made a lot of people happier by the listening part,' he said.
One happier senator is Florida Sen. Rick Scott, who sparred openly with McConnell and ran against Thune to replace him. Scott, who criticizes the bill as not doing enough to cut federal spending, has also met with the new leader.
'I'd be very surprised if anybody doesn't believe he's receptive to their ideas,' Scott said of Thune. And when people feel heard, Scott said, 'there's a greater chance they will go along with something.'
Thune has also carefully navigated his relationship with the president, after sharply criticizing Trump in 2020 for trying to overturn his election defeat.
Trump declined to endorse Thune's reelection bid two years later. Thune endorsed South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott over Trump in the presidential primary before eventually endorsing Trump. The two made amends in the final months of Trump's presidential campaign and have since forged a working relationship of mutual benefit. Thune has stayed in close touch with the White House, visiting Trump several times to discuss the bill, including on Wednesday.
While the collaborative approach has won favor from Trump and colleagues who were agitating for a change, Thune has a long way to go in a short time. Passing the legislation will require hard choices, and not every demand can be met.
Still, Thune's South Dakota colleague, Republican Sen. Mike Rounds, says he has already proved himself a 'winner' with Trump and the conference by quickly moving the president's Cabinet nominations through the Senate mostly without controversy. The Senate also recently blocked California air regulations that Republicans have long opposed after Thune delayed the vote for weeks to assuage procedural concerns from GOP moderates like Maine Sen. Susan Collins.
'Everybody wants to work with John,' Rounds said. 'He's not making anybody mad right now.'
Rounds says Thune has also learned how to crack down when he needs to. Since taking power, Thune has shortened Senate vote times that were sometimes stretching for hours to just 15 minutes, in most cases. It was a hard lesson for some senators, but it won him respect from Republicans and, privately, even some Democrats.
But as they were adjusting to the change, some senators unexpectedly missed votes because of Thune's new policy, Rounds said.
'Did he get yelled at a little bit? Yeah,' he said. 'But once they got cut off once or twice, pretty soon they realized, if you want to vote, make it on time.'